Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Carryovers at Ellis, Presque Isle

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Aug. 18 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Ellis Park, along with horses to play in carryovers at Ellis and Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Ellis Park Late Pick 5 Protection: Receive up to $50 back on your Late Pick 5 wagers each Monday at Ellis Park if you have four out of five winning legs.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Ellis Park Challenge
• $200 Ellis Park Feeder to 8/23 Travers MMBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $120 Mountaineer Feeder to 8/30 Saratoga/Kentucky Downs MMBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:10 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, trainer Brad Cox has compiled a solid 9-for-46 (20%) record debuting juveniles in dirt sprints at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

This stat points to #6 Highlight Show (3-1) as a threat to win her first start. The daughter of Munnings has trained primarily at Keeneland and is slated to be ridden by hot jockey Fernando De La Cruz, who has gone 10-for-22 (45%) teaming up with Cox over the last two months.

Let’s bet Highlight Show to win and key her over #7 Cuda Cutie (7-2) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #6 Highlight Show (3-1)
• #7 Cuda Cutie (7-2)
• #5 El Ma’any (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Highlight Show
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 7
  Total: $30

Ellis Park: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 3:12 p.m. ET)

#8 Maverick Queen (5-1) has posted fast workouts at Turfway Park, including a bullet half-mile from the starting gate in :47 2/5.

The unraced daughter of Dialed In hails from the barn of hot trainer Eoin Harty, who has gone 2-for-3 (67%) debuting juveniles in turf routes at Ellis Park since 2024.

At 5-1, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #8 Maverick Queen (5-1)
• #3 Rose to Riches (7-2)
• #4 Rain Gold (3-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #8 Maverick Queen

Ellis Park: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 4:42 p.m. ET)

#8 Vanity (6-1) broke slowly and was outsprinted during the early stages of a 5 1/2-furlong turf maiden special weight at Ellis Park last month. She did, however, rally with some interest to finish fifth behind a runaway winner.

Considering the pace fractions of that contest were blazing (:21.04 and :43.92), Vanity figures to have a much easier time keeping up while stretching out for a one-mile maiden special weight, in which the pace should be much slower. It helps that Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse wins at an 18% rate with second-time starters.

Vanity’s 6-1 morning-line odds warrant a win bet.

Selections

• #8 Vanity (6-1)
• #7 Trust Account (5-2)
• #4 Sneakily (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 Vanity

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 1: $1,661 Pick 5 carryover (3:30 p.m. ET)

The 50-cent Early Pick 5 at Presque Isle Downs is highlighted by a $1,661 carryover.

Looking for a single to build tickets around? Check out #4 Boujie Betz (9-5) in Race 3, an allowance for Pennsylvania-bred fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on Tapeta. Only six horses have entered, so Boujie Betz won’t have to beat many rivals to claim victory.

Boujie Betz exits a close runner-up finish over this track, distance, and class level on July 21. After rating as many as five lengths off the pace (a departure from her usual up-close racing tactics), the bay filly rallied to finish second by a head, earning a 79 Brisnet Speed rating three points higher than the par winning number for Monday’s conditions at Presque Isle Downs.

The only other runner in Monday’s field who has exceeded the par winning Brisnet Speed rating this year is #3 Shez Untappable (5-2), who earned an 80 when taking a $25,000 claimer sprinting six furlongs at Presque Isle two starts back. But Shez Untappable finished 4 1/4 lengths behind Boujie Betz when running fourth in the July 21 allowance, so we’re confident Boujie Betz will retain her advantage on Monday and deliver victory as a short-priced single.

Ellis Park: Race 1: $3,099 Super High 5 carryover (12:50 p.m. ET)

The highlight of the Monday card at Ellis Park is a $3,099 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

The prize pool is up for grabs in Race 1, a maiden special weight for fillies and mares racing one mile over the main track. The morning-line favorite—and the fastest entrant from a Brisnet Speed rating standpoint—is #5 Sensing Flatter (8-5), who earned a 78 when finishing second by half a length in a one-mile maiden special weight over the Aqueduct dirt.

The problem is, that race took place in October 2023, and Sensing Flatter hasn’t run since. The nearly two-year layoff is an obvious question mark, and while sharp workouts at Churchill Downs suggest Sensing Flatter will return in fine form, she’s hard to fully trust at a short price.

If you want to try to beat Sensing Flatter, give #6 Being Myself (7-2) a try. She debuted in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs last fall, finishing fifth behind runaway winner Muhimma, who later won the Demoiselle (G2).

Being Myself hasn’t run since, but she brings sharp workouts to her return, and her morning-line odds are more enticing than those offered by Sensing Flatter. If she improves while adding Lasix in her sophomore debut, Being Myself is a logical choice to challenge for victory.

Good luck!