Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Mahoning Valley’s $1,709 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Nov. 10 at Zia Park, Turf Paradise, and Horseshoe Indianapolis, as well as a single for Mahoning Valley’s $1,709 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 5x Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Receive 5x points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Woodbine Mohawk each Monday in November.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $100 Mountaineer Feeder to 11/22 Churchill Downs CBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Zia Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 3:53 p.m. ET)

#8 Cash Waterfall (9-5) and #6 Fort Sumner (7-2) both hail from the red-hot barn of Todd Fincher, who has gone 7-for-15 (47%) at Zia Park this meet.

Cash Waterfall is an experienced runner; he finished second in his debut over this distance and class level at Albuquerque last month. Fincher strikes at a 28% rate with second-time starters, and hot jockey Alfredo Juarez Jr. is named to ride.

Fort Sumner is an unraced son of Marking, who sires a sharp 17% winners from first-time starters. Fincher wins at a 24% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights.

Let’s box these two Fincher trainees in an exacta.

Selections

• #8 Cash Waterfall (9-5)
• #6 Fort Sumner (7-2)
• #4 Silver Twilight (8-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: box 6,8 ($20)

Turf Paradise: Race 4: $30,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (five furlongs on dirt, 4:39 p.m. ET)

#8 Run Your Mouth (7-2) hasn’t missed the trifecta in five starts, including a quartet of maiden special weights at Canterbury. Along the way, she’s posted Brisnet Speed ratings of 73 and 72, the only 70+ numbers belonging to any filly entered in Race 4.

Run Your Mouth has a strong chance to deliver victory over California raider #5 Clam Beach (6-1), so let’s place win and exacta bets accordingly.

Selections

• #8 Run Your Mouth (7-2)
• #5 Clam Beach (6-1)
• #4 Standard Pressure (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Run Your Mouth
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 5
  Total: $25

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 5:47 p.m. ET)

#2 Party in the Club (4-5) is dropping in class out of two stakes at Horseshoe Indianapolis. The last time she tackled a maiden special weight over this track, she rallied boldly to finish second by a head, earning a 67 Brisnet Speed rating seven points higher than the par winning number for Monday’s conditions.

Let’s bet Party in the Club on top of #1 Justiceontherail (12-1) in a cold exacta. Justiceontherail has only run once, debuting with a fifth-place finish in a Horseshoe Indianapolis maiden special weight. She faced a deep field that day, as the winner (Sahara Hottie) has since won the Indiana Stallion S., while runner-up Eltinge took second place in last month’s Back Home Again S.

Selections

• #2 Party in the Club (4-5)
• #1 Justiceontherail (12-1)
• #7 Crazy Sexy Cool (10-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 2 with 1

Carryover Watch

Mahoning Valley: Race 1: $1,709 Pick 5 carryover (12:15 p.m. ET)

Mahoning Valley is kicking off the new week with a $1,709 carryover in the 50-cent Early Pick 5.

Winning a share shouldn’t be especially difficult, at least from a mathematical perspective. The five races have drawn 39 horses in total (averaging 7.8 per race), which works out to 25,344 possible outcomes before scratches.

We can reduce the number of outcomes to consider down to 4,224 just by singling #3 Pico Plat (4-5), the heavy favorite in Race 2, a $7,500 maiden claimer taking place over one mile on dirt. Only six horses have entered Race 2, and Pico Plat is shaping up as a standout.

True, Pico Plat has struggled so far, failing to finish higher than third in 11 starts. But he’s competed exclusively against tougher competition than he’ll face on Monday, and on occasion he’s performed quite well. Consider the following performances on his record:

• On March 30, Pico Plat ran third in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Tampa Bay Downs, earning a 72 Brisnet Speed rating higher than the par winning number (71) for Monday’s conditions at Mahoning Valley.
• On June 8, Pico Plat finished fifth in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park, earning another 72 Brisnet Speed rating.
• On July 19, Pico Plat stretched out over one mile for a $12,500 maiden claimer at Colonial Downs. He opened up a large early lead through fast fractions before tiring to finish third, beaten only 2 1/4 lengths.
• On Oct. 2 at Charles Town, Pico Plat set the pace in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight before staying on to finished third by 1 1/4 lengths, earning a 74 Brisnet Speed rating.

Dropping down to the $7,500 level at Mahoning Valley should make Pico Plat mighty tough to catch. There isn’t much speed entered in Race 2, so chances are Pico Plat will secure an uncontested lead under hot jockey Luis Rivera (a 22% winner at Mahoning this meet) and never look back. It helps that trainer Anthony Farrior strikes at a 22% rate with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company.

For all these reasons, Pico Plat is a compelling Pick 5 single.

Good luck!