Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Velocious drops in class

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Dec. 1 at Mahoning Valley, Zia Park, and Turf Paradise, including a 20-1 longshot.

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Best Bets and Quick Picks

Mahoning Valley: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 12:43 p.m. ET)

Trainer Jason DaCosta wins at a stellar 41% rate with first-time starters. At Mahoning Valley specifically, he’s gone 6-for-15 (40%) with first-time starters since 2022.

These stats bode well for #3 Red Ohio Bred (20-1). The unraced gelding enters off a light work tab, but his dam has produced five winners from seven starters, and 20-1 is too big a price to ignore.

Let’s try a modest win bet on Red Ohio Bred.

Selections

• #3 Red Ohio Bred (20-1)
• #4 Game Performer (3-1)
• #5 Top Frost (4-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #3 Red Ohio Bred

Zia Park: Race 5: $10,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 3:53 p.m. ET)

There’s almost no pace entered in this sprint for juveniles, so let’s back #6 Twisted Steel (3-1). He vied for the lead in both of his starts against maiden special weight competition at Lone Star Park and Zia Park before tiring to finish off the board.

Dropping down to the $10,000 maiden claiming level should help Twisted Steel carry his speed to the winner’s circle.

#3 Blameitonblantons (9-5), who ran fifth in a $20,000 maiden claimer at Remington Park last month, can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Twisted Steel (3-1)
• #3 Blameitonblantons (9-5)
• #2 Michiga (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Twisted Steel
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 3
  Total: $25

Turf Paradise: Race 6: $12,500 Allowance Optional Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 5:40 p.m. ET)

#5 Velocious (3-1) has been facing tougher competition in California. In her most recent dirt start, she finished fifth (beaten only 3 1/4 lengths) in a $40,000 allowance optional claimer at Los Alamitos.

Velocious was claimed out of her last race by trainer Robertino Diodoro, who wins at a lofty 20% rate with new claiming acquisitions. Jockey Orlando Mojica (a 27% winner teaming up with Diodoro over the last two months) is named to ride, so the stage is set for Velocious to deliver victory in her Turf Paradise debut.

A win bet is in order. We’ll also play an exacta using #3 Grease Missle (6-1) for second place.

Selections

• #5 Velocious (3-1)
• #3 Grease Missle (6-1)
• #4 Gypsy Lynn (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 Velocious
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 3
  Total: $30

Good luck!