Saturday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Kentucky Derby undercard

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for the Kentucky Derby (G1) undercard on Saturday, May 3 at Churchill Downs, including a ticket for the mandatory-payout $96,684 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 10x Points at Fraser Downs: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Fraser Downs each Friday.
• Kentucky Derby Week $10 Money Back: Get up to $10 back on your first single-horse win bet in any eligible race at Churchill Downs from April 26 through May 3 if your horse finishes second or third.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $5,000 Kentucky Derby Betting Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 8: Churchill Downs (G1, seven furlongs on dirt, 3:23 p.m. ET)

#10 Nysos (4-1) was nothing short of brilliant in three starts during the fall and winter of 2023-24, winning all three by a minimum of 7 1/2 lengths. He was especially impressive in the seven-furlong Bob Hope (G3), trouncing future Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Stronghold by 8 3/4 lengths.

Nysos hasn’t run in 15 months, but a sharp work tab suggests he can pick up where he left off for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, a 25% winner with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more.

Let’s take advantage of the Kentucky Derby Week $10 Money Back promotion and place a win bet on Nysos. Then we’ll add in an exacta using #7 Mindframe (3-1) and #11 Mullikin (7-2) for second place.

Selections

• #10 Nysos (4-1)
• #7 Mindframe (3-1)
• #11 Mullikin (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #10 Nysos
• $10 Exacta: 10 with 7,11 ($20)
  Total: $40

Churchill Downs: Race 10: Derby City Distaff (G1, seven furlongs on dirt, 4:50 p.m. ET)

#2 Kopion (8-1) enters off back-to-back wins in the La Brea (G1) and Santa Monica (G2), decisive triumphs in which she posted flashy Brisnet Speed ratings of 100 and 106. The daughter of Omaha Beach has plenty of tactical speed and may prove too fast for her Derby City Distaff rivals to defeat.

At 8-1, a $25 win bet is in order; thanks to the Kentucky Derby Week $10 Money Back offer, we’ll receive $10 back if Kopion finishes second or third. Then we’ll play her over Santa Monica runner-up #12 Hope Road (15-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #2 Kopion (8-1)
• #12 Hope Road (15-1)
• #7 Vahva (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 Kopion
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 12
  Total: $30

Churchill Downs: Race 11: Turf Classic (G1, 1 1/8 miles on turf, 5:39 p.m. ET)

#7 Running Bee (5-1) is an effective middle-distance turf horse. He won the 1 1/8-mile Monmouth (G3) in a dead-heat last year and kicked off 2025 with a deep-closing triumph in the 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay (G3).

Running Bee has yet to win at the Grade 1 level, but this year’s Turf Classic hasn’t come up especially deep. Running Bee finished fourth by 2 1/2 lengths in last year’s Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland against multiple Grade 1 winner Carl Spackler and next-out Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) winner More Than Looks, and a similar performance at Churchill Downs may be enough to land Running Bee in the winner’s circle.

A win bet capitalizing on the Kentucky Derby Week $10 Money Back promotion is in order, and we’ll also add a small but potentially lucrative exacta using #8 Cameo Performance (20-1) for second place.

Selections

• #7 Running Bee (5-1)
• #8 Cameo Performance (20-1)
• #1 Integration (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #7 Running Bee
• $5 Exacta: 7 with 8
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 7: $96,684 Pick 6 mandatory payout (2:38 p.m. ET)

The $96,684 carryover in the 20-cent Derby City Pick 6 at Churchill Downs is slated for a mandatory payout on Kentucky Derby Day.

Last year, winning ticketholders cashed for $345,073.62 after a $75,438 carryover was paid out in mandatory fashion and over $2 million additional dollars joined the pool.

Let’s pursue this year’s mandatory-payout Derby City 6 on a ~$100 budget:

Race 7: Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G2)

The opening leg of the Pick 6 is tremendously difficult to decipher. #7 Think Big (4-1) and #8 Rogue Lightning (7-2) are must-use contenders after running 1-2 over a damp course in the Shakertown (G2) last month, but they’re hardly standouts. #5 Arrest Me Red (6-1) and #6 Run Carson (6-1) fit well here too, while #9 Boss Sully (15-1) and #10 Unconquerable Keen (30-1) are interesting longshots from California.

Race 8: Churchill Downs (G1)

There’s some risk with singling a horse who hasn’t run in 15 months, but for reasons outlined above, #10 Nysos (4-1) is a compelling choice to win the Churchill Downs. By standing alone with the son of Nyquist, we can afford to spread deeper in other legs of the Pick 6.

Race 9: American Turf (G1)

2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) participants #3 New Century (3-1), #7 Zulu Kingdom (4-1), and #10 Iron Man Cal (9-2) are all logical win threats. So too is #5 Test Score (10-1) after winning Keeneland's Transylvania (G3) over a damp course. We’ll use all four of these contenders.

Race 10: Derby City Distaff (G1)

#2 Kopion (8-1) is our top choice as outlined above, but we want to spread a little deeper for Pick 6 purposes. We’ll include defending Derby City Distaff winner #7 Vahva (6-1), who is 4-for-4 at Churchill Downs, as well as the multiple Grade 1-placed #1 Scylla (4-1) and Santa Monica runner-up #12 Hope Road (15-1).

Race 11: Turf Classic (G1)

While #7 Raging Bee (5-1) is an appealing win play, he can’t be viewed as a standout in this seemingly wide-open field. Pegasus World Cup (G1) 1-2 finishers #10 Spirit of St Louis (9-2) and #1 Integration (4-1) have win chances. #6 Taking Candy (8-1) is a potentially dangerous pace player, and it’s possible we haven’t yet seen the best of #8 Cameo Performance (20-1).

Race 12: Kentucky Derby (G1)

Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner #8 Journalism (3-1) is the fastest horse on paper, and sharp workouts suggest he’s sitting on a big performance in his third start of the season. A wet track shouldn’t be an issue since he’s a son of Curlin (a mud lover who sires mud lovers), so let’s take a stand and single Journalism to conclude the Pick 6.

• 20-cent Pick 6: 5,6,7,8,9,10 with 10 with 3,5,7,10 with 1,2,7,12 with 1,6,7,8,10 with 8 ($96)

Good luck!

Join us for our upcoming LIVE blogs!

May 1-3 | LIVE coverage of Thurby, Oaks, and Kentucky Derby Day with exclusive up-to-date all-access trackside coverage. LIVE race odds, including Kentucky Derby odds, picks, entries for all the races, and so much more!

LIVE blog participants include:

Jason Beem | Thursday 12-3 p.m.
Vance Hanson | Friday 3-5 p.m. | Saturday 1-4 p.m.
Keeler Johnson | Thursday 12-3 p.m. | Friday 3-5 p.m. | Saturday 1-4 p.m.
Jennifer Kelly | Thursday 3-6:30 p.m. | Friday 12:30-3 p.m. | Saturday 4-6 p.m.
Dean Keppler | Friday 12:30-3 p.m. | Saturday 4-6 p.m.
John Mucciolo | Thursday 12-3 p.m. | Friday 3-5 p.m.
Kellie Reilly | Thursday 3-6:30 p.m. | Friday 12:30-3 p.m. | Saturday 12-4 p.m.
(all times ET)

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