Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 8-1 shot at Churchill Downs

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, May 7 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Churchill Downs, along with horses to play in the $850 Pick 6 carryover at Hawthorne.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• $2,500 Win Ladder Churchill Downs: Cash $10+ single-horse win wagers in selected races at Churchill Downs each racing Thursday in May to climb the Win Ladder and compete for your share of a $2,500 prize pool.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $80 Belmont at the Big A Feeder to 5/23 Churchill Downs Bonus Feeder
• $40 Belmont at the Big A Challenge
• $50 Churchill Downs Bet and Set Feeder to 5/10 Churchill Downs SFBC Qualifier
• $100 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $40 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $120 Churchill Downs Feeder to 5/17 Churchill Downs SFBC Qualifier
• $56 Charles Town Bet and Set Feeder to 5/22 Churchill Downs Bonus Feeder
• $40 Charles Town Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 3:12 p.m. ET)

#2 The Exodus Twist (2-1) ran well when finishing second over this track, distance, and class level on April 14. He opened up a large early lead and understandably tired in the final furlong, but even still he came home 2 3/4 lengths ahead of the third-place finisher.

If The Exodus Twist rations his speed more effectively on Thursday, he can graduate for hot trainer Rogelio Labra. Let’s bet him to win and key him over first-time starter #6 Disappear (9-5) in an exacta.

Selections

• #2 The Exodus Twist (2-1)
• #6 Disappear (9-5)
• #4 Long Acting (9-2)

Wagers

• $24 to win on #2 The Exodus Twist
• $6 Exacta: 2 with 6
  Total: $30

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on dirt, 5:00 p.m. ET)

#6 Pampered Prince (4-1) debuted in a six-furlong $50,000 maiden optional claimer at Fair Grounds. He broke slowly, but passed a few rivals to finish fifth. The top two finishers both came back to record next-out wins, so Pampered Prince faced a tough field.

Stretching out in distance and adding blinkers for his second start can send Pampered Prince to the winner’s circle under five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. As a son of Hard Spun out of a mare by Uncle Mo, Pampered Prince is bred to relish racing one mile.

Let’s bet Pampered Prince to win and play him over #2 Go for Rocket (3-1) and #7 Mula (2-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #6 Pampered Prince (4-1)
• #2 Go for Rocket (3-1)
• #7 Mula (2-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Pampered Prince
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 2,7 ($10)
  Total: $30

Churchill Downs: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 5:58 p.m. ET)

#8 Caragogo (8-1) is an intriguing price play. In his debut on turf at Gulfstream Park, he opened up a large early lead in a 7 1/2-furlong maiden special weight before tiring in the homestretch to finish seventh.

Trainer Rusty Arnold wins at a solid 16% rate with second-time starters, so Caragogo is eligible to move forward on Thursday. Cutting back to five furlongs may also help his chances.

Let’s place a win bet on Caragogo.

Selections

• #8 Caragogo (8-1)
• #10 Tranquillo (6-1)
• #6 Ice Wolf (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 Caragogo

Carryover Watch

Hawthorne: Race 2: $850 Pick 6 carryover (4:08 p.m. ET)

The Thursday card at Hawthorne brings an $850 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

Trainer Larry Rivelli has been on fire at Hawthorne this meet, going 6-for-10 (60%). He has four horses entered in Thursday’s Pick 6 sequence, and many bettors figure to use them all.

The Pick 6 gets underway in Race 2, a maiden special weight for three-year-olds and older horses sprinting five furlongs on turf. Rivelli has entered two horses: #4 King of Sheba (7-2) and #8 Chief Morter (3-1). Both warrant inclusion in the Pick 6.

King of Sheba is an unraced son of two-time Grade 1 winner Charlatan. He enters off fast workouts at Fair Grounds and Hawthorne, including a bullet five furlongs from the starting gate in :59.

Meanwhile, Chief Morter debuted in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Hawthorne last July. After setting the pace, he tired to finish last in a three-horse field, though he was beaten only 3 1/2 lengths.

Chief Morter went to the sidelines immediately afterward and didn’t return to serious training until March. Since then, he’s posted a trio of bullet workouts, including a blazing half-mile from the Hawthorne starting gate in :45 2/5. He looks ready to factor while adding Lasix for his return.

Rivelli’s next entrant is #5 Silver Quarters (5-2) in Race 5, a $10,000 starter optional claimer taking place over 7 1/2 furlongs on turf. Fresh off back-to-back blowout wins against $5,000 claiming and $5,000 starter allowance company on Tapeta at Turfway Park, Silver Quarters is a logical contender. Take note, he boasts a respectable 16-4-3-2 lifetime record on turf.

However, a couple of double-digit longshots have upset potential. #6 Grand Illusion (15-1) won his last two starts of 2025 over the Hawthorne turf, taking a $7,500 claimer by 2 1/4 lengths and a $12,500 claimer by 3 3/4 lengths while earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 83 and 82. Trainer Maximino Quinonez wins at a solid 17% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, so Grand Illusion is eligible to kick off 2026 with another victory.

Meanwhile, #9 My Lady Slew (12-1) has won three of her last four starts competing on turf at Hawthorne, including a $50,000 allowance optional claimer. After misfiring in her 2026 debut on dirt, getting back on turf could trigger a rebound.

The final Rivelli trainee is #9 Bizzee Channel (3-1) in Race 7, a $10,000 starter optional claimer. Bizzee Channel is a logical contender in the 7 1/2-furlong grass contest; during the winter, he won a $15,000 claimer racing one mile over the Fair Grounds turf, and he brings a sharp series of Brisnet Speed ratings to Hawthorne.

But #6 Sbagliato (5-1) is worth including as backup. He’s struggled in recent starts over the Turfway Tapeta, but on turf in California last year, he managed to win a one-mile $25,000-$22,500 claimer with a strong 87 Brisnet Speed rating. Returning to turf at Hawthorne may send Sbagliato back to the winner’s circle.

Good luck!