Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Belmont’s $39,713 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Oct. 8 at Keeneland and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with a horse to single in the $39,713 Pick 6 carryover at Belmont Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 4x Rewards Points at Keeneland: Opt in and receive 4x rewards points on all wagers at Keeneland each racing Wednesday from Oct. 7 through Oct. 21.
• 8x Rewards Points at Century Mile: Opt in and receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Century Mile on Wednesday, Oct. 7 and Wednesday, Oct. 14.
• 4% Cash Back on Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge: Opt in and receive 4% cash back on your Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) entry purchased through TwinSpires when you have previously competed in any BCBC qualifier, hosted by TwinSpires or any other operator.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $82 Keeneland Bet and Set Feeder to 10/11 Keeneland CBC Qualifier
• $88 Belmont Park Bet and Set Feeder to 10/8 Keeneland KFC Bonus Feeder
• $150 Belmont Park Challenge
• $40 Belmont Park Challenge
• $200 Keeneland Feeder to 10/9 Keeneland KFC Qualifier
• $50 Belmont Park Challenge
• $40 Penn National Challenge
• $68 Penn National Feeder to 10/8 Keeneland KFC Bonus Feeder

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 2:36 p.m. ET)

#1 Spectacular Sam (5-2) is dropping in class after finishing second in the one-mile Sorority S. at Monmouth Park. The winner, Emphatic, flattered the form by returning to win a fast renewal of the Alcibiades (G1).

Spectacular Sam fits well against this field from a Brisnet Speed rating standpoint, and she’s adding blinkers, which could help her avoid dropping as far off the pace as she has in her first three starts. Two recent bullet workouts cement Spectacular Sam as a compelling contender, so we recommend betting her to win and singling her to start a daily double.

Selections

• #1 Spectacular Sam (5-2)
• #6 Jump Seat (2-1)
• #8 Help a Girl Out (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Spectacular Sam
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 2
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 2:37 p.m. ET)

#1 Unbridled Moon (6-1) is an unraced juvenile from the barn of Aaron West, who strikes at a 22% rate with first-time starters. That includes a 1-for-5 (20%) tally in recent years with horses debuting over one mile or farther.

The experienced runners entered in Race 2 don’t appear overly formidable, so let’s place a win bet on Unbridled Moon and key him over #4 Mo Rambo (3-1) and #3 Gabe Doesit Again (7-2) in an exacta.

Selections

• #1 Unbridled Moon (6-1)
• #4 Mo Rambo (3-1)
• #3 Gabe Doesit Again (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Unbridled Moon
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 3,4 ($10)
  Total: $30

Keeneland: Race 5: $50,000 Starter Allowance (six furlongs on dirt, 3:08 p.m. ET)

#2 For the Win (4-1) showed promise in her first two starts sprinting, most notably running second in the seven-furlong Ellis Park Debutante S. behind next-out Pocahontas (G3) winner Manuka Honey. Unfortunately, For the Win struggled when stretching out over one mile in the Pocahontas, finishing sixth by a wide margin.

Cutting back to six furlongs and dropping in class should help For the Win rebound. We’ll single her to conclude our double wager from Race 4, then bet her to win.

Selections

• #2 For the Win (4-1)
• #8 Valkyrie (5-1)
• #6 Cardio Cat (5-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 For the Win

Carryover Watch

Belmont Park: Race 4: $39,713 Pick 6 carryover (2:49 p.m. ET)

Fans of Belmont Park will be excited to pursue Wednesday’s $39,713 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

The Pick 6 spans Race 4 through Race 9. It’s a competitive series of races. Before scratches, the sequence features 66 horses (averaging 11 per race) and a staggering 1,672,704 possible outcomes. Five of the six races feature at least 11 entries.

Finding a trustworthy single will be important if you want to reduce the cost and complexity of assembling tickets. Our best recommendation for a single is #4 Audible Johnny (2-1), the morning-line favorite to win Race 5.

Best single: Race 5: #4 Audible Johnny (2-1)

Race 5 is a $30,000 maiden claimer for two-year-olds dashing 6 1/2 furlongs over the main track. The race looks ripe for conquest by Audible Johnny, who is dropping in class for his third career start.

Audible Johnny debuted in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Monmouth Park. After sticking close to the lead, he stayed on to finish second, 2 3/4 lengths ahead of third-place finisher Tipsy Mojo, who returned to dominate his next start at the same track and class level.

Off this promising debut, Audible Johnny took his game to Saratoga for a six-furlong maiden special weight for horses who brought a final bid of $65,000 or less at their most recent auction. He dueled for the lead through fractions of :22.60 and :46.26 before weakening in the final furlong to finish fourth by 3 1/4 lengths.

Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. wins at a 28% rate with horses tackling the maiden claiming ranks for the first time, so dropping in class might be all Audible Johnny needs to carry his speed to the winner’s circle. Take note, the 70 Brisnet Speed rating he posted in his debut is the highest number belonging to any horse entered in Race 5.

Of course, it’s possible one of the field’s three first-time starters will strike on debut. #7 Hotshotmcgilicudy(4-1) looms as the most logical of the bunch for trainer Brad Cox, a 21% winner with first-time starters. But Cox’s win rate with horses debuting at the maiden claiming level dips to 18%, so for Pick 6 purposes, we’re willing to stand alone with the proven form of Audible Johnny.

Good luck!