Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Churchill’s $10,040 Super High 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, May 14 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Churchill Downs, including a ticket for Churchill’s $10,040 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• $2,500 Win Ladder Churchill Downs: Cash $10+ single-horse win wagers in selected races at Churchill Downs each racing Thursday in May to climb the Win Ladder and compete for your share of a $2,500 prize pool.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $80 Belmont at the Big A Feeder to 5/22 Churchill Downs Bonus Feeder
• $40 Belmont at the Big A Challenge
• $72 Churchill Downs Bet and Set Feeder to 5/25 Churchill Downs KDBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $40 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $100 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $150 Churchill Downs Feeder to 5/17 Churchill Downs SFBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 5:19 p.m. ET)

Unraced three-year-old filly #4 Easy Effort (6-1) has the pedigree to show speed and win from an early age for trainer Aaron West, who strikes at a 22% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights.

Jockey Samuel Bermudez (a 22% winner teaming up with West over the last two months) is named to ride, so Easy Effort’s 6-1 morning-line odds are enticing. Let’s bet her to win.

Selections

• #4 Easy Effort (6-1)
• #7 Well Hey There (7-2)
• #2 Jordans Deal (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Easy Effort

Churchill Downs: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on dirt, 6:27 p.m. ET)

Trainer Larry Rivelli did well debuting two-year-olds during the first month of the 2025 spring meet at Churchill Downs, going 2-for-3 (67%). His first juvenile first-time starter of the 2026 meet, #6 Cut Throat (3-1), warrants serious respect.

A son of multiple Grade 1 winner Cyberknife, Cut Throat enters off a pair of bullet three-furlong workouts at Hawthorne, including one in a swift :34 3/5. He’ll be ridden by Jareth Loveberry, who has gone 8-for-17 (47%) teaming up with Rivelli over the last two months, so there’s a lot to like about Cut Throat.

A win bet is in order, and we’ll also single Cut Throat to start a double wager.

Selections

• #6 Cut Throat (3-1)
• #10 Munny Jack (6-1)
• #8 Crossfire (9-2)

Wagers

• $24 to win on #6 Cut Throat
• $6 Double: 6 with 9
  Total: $30

Churchill Downs: Race 5: $80,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 3/8 miles on turf, 6:56 p.m. ET)

#9 Noble Confessor (8-1) is intriguing at a price. While he’s run well in short routes, even winning a one-mile allowance at Keeneland last month, he’s done some of his best work over longer trips. As a three-year-old last year, he won a 1 3/16-mile maiden special weight at Saratoga and ran second in the 1 1/8-mile Hill Prince (G3) and 1 3/8-mile Jockey Club Derby (G2).

Noble Confessor is comfortable racing on the lead, which is an asset since there isn’t much pace entered in this 1 3/8-mile allowance optional claimer. Noble Confessor has a chance to set or press a slow pace while stretching back out in distance, so let’s bet him to win and single him to conclude our double wager.

Selections

• #9 Noble Confessor (8-1)
• #4 Presider (7-2)
• #11 Freedom’s Way (10-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #9 Noble Confessor

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $10,040 Super High 5 carryover (5:00 p.m. ET)

The opening race on Thursday at Churchill Downs features a five-figure carryover in the $1 Super High 5. To be precise, the prize pool is $10,040.

Race 1 is a maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies who brought a final bid of $65,000 or less at their most recent auction. We favor the chances of first-time starter #3 Juneau (7-2) and the experienced #4 Cardio Cat (7-5), and we’ll count on them to run 1-2 in either order.

Wager

• $1 Super High 5: 3,4 with 3,4 with 1,2,5,7 with 1,2,5,7 with ALL ($96)

Cardio Cat has already run well over this track and class level. She debuted on April 26 in a 4 1/2-furlong sprint and finished second after pressing the pace, beaten only one length while earning a respectable 82 Brisnet Speed rating higher than the par winning number (81) for Thursday’s conditions.

As for Juneau, she’s a daughter of two-time juvenile Grade 1 winner Bolt d’Oro, who sires a strong 15% winners from first-time starters. The bay filly enters off a promising work tab at Churchill Downs highlighted by a bullet three furlongs in :35 and a solid half-mile from the starting gate in :48 2/5.

Underneath Cardio Cat and Juneau, we’ll spread deeper while emphasizing four fillies: #1 Spun Tight (8-1), #2 Lucky Lollipop (15-1), #5 By Grace (10-1), and #7 Honky Tonk Girl (9-2).

Spun Tight and Honky Tonk Girl are first-time starters trained by Peter Miller. While Miller’s 4% win rate with first-time starters is modest, 31% of his debuting runners record top-three finishes. Spun Tight has hot jockey Jose Ortiz named to ride, and Honky Tonk Girl recently breezed a bullet half-mile from the San Luis Rey starting gate in :47 1/5.

Lucky Lollipop is an unraced filly from the barn of Kelsey Danner, who has gone 2-for-10 (20%) saddling first-time starters this year, which includes a 1-for-1 tally with juveniles. Lucky Lollipop’s sire, Instagrand, went 2-for-2 as a juvenile, most notably dominating the Best Pal (G3) by 10 1/4 lengths.

By Grace is a second-time starter conditioned by hot trainer Joe Sharp, a 20% winner at Churchill Downs this meet. She finished eighth in her debut against tougher competition at Churchill last month, but she got off to a troubled start and ran into traffic. A clean trip while adding blinkers could trigger improvement.

Good luck!