Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Colonial’s $1,387 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, July 30 at Colonial Downs, Horseshoe Indianapolis, and Del Mar, including live longshots to play in Colonial’s $1,387 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• $6,000 Split the 6 at Saratoga: Opt in and place $10+ single-horse win wagers in the six selected Saratoga races each Thursday, from July 9 through July 30. Winning wagers in each selected race qualify for a split of a $1,000 pool, with $6,000 in total prize pools on the day.
• 8x Rewards Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Opt in and receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each racing day in July.
• 8x Rewards Points at Red Shores: Opt in and receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Red Shores Charlottetown and Red Shores Summerside each racing day in July.
• Across the Board Boost at Colonial Downs: Opt in to receive a 15% bonus on any winning individual win, place, or show wager, or combination of win, place, and show wagers, at Colonial Downs each racing Thursday in July.
• 15% Odds Boost at GBI Racing: Opt in to receive a 15% odds boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at select GBI tracks from Monday, July 27 through Friday, July 31.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $60 Saratoga Bet and Set Feeder to 8/2 Saratoga BCBC Qualifier
• $50 Colonial Downs Challenge
• $200 Colonial Downs Feeder to 8/8 Saratoga KDBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $150 Saratoga Feeder to 8/1 Saratoga/Arlington Million SSBC Qualifier
• $100 Saratoga Challenge
• $40 Saratoga Challenge
• $200 Woodbine Qualifier to 8/15 King's Plate Contest
• $80 Charles Town Feeder to 8/7 Saratoga KDBC/BCBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Charles Town Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Colonial Downs: Race 5: $12,500 Maiden Claiming (one mile on dirt, 1:05 p.m. ET)

#6 Hill Country (6-5) might be too good for this field. He’s competed exclusively against tougher competition so far and wasn’t disgraced in his most recent dirt start, finishing fifth in a $30,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs.

Hill Country owns the three highest Brisnet Speed ratings in this field and should be tough to beat while dropping in class. Let’s bet him on top of an exacta using #1 H Abarrio (6-1) for second place.

H Abarrio’s most recent dirt start saw him finish second by 1 1/4 lengths in a $16,000 maiden claimer at Colonial Downs.

Selections

• #6 Hill Country (6-5)
• #1 H Abarrio (6-1)
• #5 Revolution Rock (2-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 6 with 1

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#6 Staymistyforme (5-2) is dropping in class after running second in a recent $15,000 maiden claimer over this track and distance. In that race, she defeated five of the nine rivals she’ll face on Thursday.

Descending to the $7,500 level should unlock a winning performance from Staymistyforme. Let’s key her on top of an exacta using #4 Best Hat (20-1) and #3 Gone to Far (7-2) for second place.

Selections

• #6 Staymistyforme (5-2)
• #4 Best Hat (20-1)
• #3 Gone to Far (7-2)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 6 with 3,4 ($20)

Del Mar: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 5:00 p.m. ET)

#1 Rosa’s Miracle (3-1) debuted in a five-furlong maiden special weight over the Del Mar dirt. She rated off the pace and tossed her head around while racing greenly in the homestretch, perhaps in reaction to dirt kickback.

Switching to turf and stretching out over one mile could result in an improved performance from Rosa’s Miracle. It’s encouraging to note trainer John Sadler wins at a 20% rate with horses trying turf for the first time, matching his 20% success rate with second-time starters.

A win bet is in order, along with a small exacta using #6 Lease Instead (7-2) for second place.

Selections

• #1 Rosa’s Miracle (3-1)
• #6 Lease Instead (7-2)
• #7 Bell Bottom Blues (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Rosa’s Miracle
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 6
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 6: $1,387 Pick 6 carryover (1:35 p.m. ET)

The Thursday card at Colonial Downs is highlighted by a $1,387 carryover in the 50-cent “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6.

After analyzing the entries, we’ve identified a pair of live longshots you’ll want to include on your tickets:

Race 6: #1 Call It (8-1)

This $40,000 maiden claimer for two-year-olds sprinting six furlongs on turf hasn’t come up all that tough. #5 X G Man (8-5) is the logical favorite while dropping in class out of a couple maiden special weights on dirt, but his Brisnet Speed ratings are modest, and his pedigree suggests he might not relish switching to turf.

That’s why Call It is an intriguing alternative. His dam, Staged Affair, won two stakes sprinting on turf at Colonial Downs, and she’s foaled a trio of grass winners. Meanwhile, Call It’s sire, Bourbon Courage, sires a decent 12% winners from first-time turf starters.

Call It has yet to race, but he recently breezed a bullet three furlongs from the Laurel Park starting gate in :36 4/5, suggesting he has some ability. Throw in the presence of apprentice jockey Jose Vargas (who rides with a five-pound weight allowance), and Call It has a good chance to outrun his morning-line odds.

Race 10: #3 Boost (12-1)

The penultimate leg of the Old Dominion 6 is a $16,000 claimer for Virginia-restricted fillies and mares who have never won two races. The field for the six-furlong grass dash is led by #4 Whatsyourbigidea (8-5), a consistent mare who finished third racing one mile at this class level on July 11. She’s a logical favorite, but she can’t be considered a lock to win while cutting back significantly in distance.

Boost is a logical alternative at compelling odds. She made her turf debut in a $50,000 starter allowance sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Colonial Downs just 12 days ago. She got caught up dueling through stiff fractions of :21.55 and :43.84 before tiring to finish last of eight, beaten 15 lengths.

Dropping down in class could make all the difference for Boost, especially if she avoids another speed duel. It helps that trainer W. Robert Bailes wins at a 33% rate with second-time grass starters.

Good luck!