Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Thurby plays at Churchill Downs

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, May 1 at Churchill Downs, along with a horse to single in Hawthorne’s $7,717 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win bet if your horse runs second in Races 3, 4, and 5 at Fraser Downs each Thursday.
• Kentucky Derby Week $10 Money Back: Get up to $10 back on your first single-horse win bet in any eligible race at Churchill Downs from April 26 through May 3 if your horse finishes second or third.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $800 Thurby KDBC Qualifier
• $400 Charles Town Bonus Feeder to 5/2 Kentucky Oaks KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:15 p.m. ET)

Between 2021 and 2024, trainer Wesley Ward compiled a terrific 5-for-7 (71%) record debuting juveniles at Churchill Downs on or before May 7. Ward is known for sending out ready-to-win juveniles during the Keeneland spring meet, but that success carries over to the early days of the Churchill Downs spring meet as well.

Ward can snatch a win early in the 2025 Churchill Downs spring meet with #10 Moonlight Beauty (5-2). The daughter of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) winner Hootenanny enters off a pair of solid half-mile workouts at Keeneland and should be fit for a winning debut.

We’ll bet Moonlight Beauty to win and single her to start a double wager. If you’re participating in the $800 Thurby KDBC Qualifier tournament on TwinSpires.com—which requires betting your entire $400 bankroll across at least six races (minimum $30 per race) at Churchill Downs—consider tripling the size of our proposed double bet.

Selections

• #10 Moonlight Beauty (5-2)
• #5 Turin (4-1)
• #7 Mercilesanihilator (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #10 Moonlight Beauty
• $10 Double: 10 with 1
  Total: $30

Churchill Downs: Race 3: $50,000 Claiming (seven furlongs on dirt, 1:45 p.m. ET)

#1 Two Eagles River (7-5) has run some of his finest races at Churchill Downs, where he boasts an 8-2-3-1 record. Last fall, he rallied to win a seven-furlong $80,000 claimer over this track with a 90 Brisnet Speed rating.

Two Eagles River ran even faster in a 6 1/2-furlong $62,500 claimer at Keeneland last month, finishing second with a 91 Brisnet Speed rating. Returning to Churchill and dropping in class for a $50,000 claimer can send Two Eagles River to the winner’s circle.

In addition to singling Two Eagles River to conclude our double bet, we suggest taking advantage of the Kentucky Derby Week $10 Money Back offer with a win bet.

Selections

• #1 Two Eagles River (7-5)
• #5 Regal Rey (15-1)
• #2 Underhill’s Tab (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Two Eagles River

Churchill Downs: Race 9: $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 5:13 p.m. ET)

#2 World Record (5-2) has shown flashes of significant talent. He wired the Amsterdam (G2) at Saratoga last summer by 6 3/4 lengths and ended the season with a solid third-place finish in the Steel Valley Sprint.

World Record has turned in a sharp series of workouts in preparation for his four-year-old debut, including a trio of bullet exercises. Under Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat, World Record looks capable of springing a mild surprise over #7 Nash (2-1), who has done his best work racing one mile or farther.

We’ll capitalize on the Kentucky Derby Week $10 Money Back offer and place a win bet on World Record.

Selections

• #2 World Record (5-2)
• #7 Nash (2-1)
• #6 Track Phantom (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 World Record

Carryover Watch

Hawthorne: Race 2: $7,717 Pick 6 carryover (4:05 p.m. ET)

The largest non-jackpot carryover up for grabs at a U.S. Thoroughbred racetrack on Thursday can be found at Hawthorne. The Illinois oval’s $1 Pick 6 has tossed up a prize pool worth $7,717 after going unsolved for seven racing days in a row. That’s right—no one has hit the Pick 6 since April 3.

Thursday’s Pick 6 doesn’t look challenging from a mathematical perspective. The sequence has drawn only 40 horses (averaging about 6.7 per race), which works out to 84,672 possible outcomes—modest for a Pick 6. However, the races look competitive on paper, and finding a viable single to build tickets around isn’t easy.

Our best recommendation for a single is #4 Pure Hickory (2-1), the morning-line favorite to win Race 4, a $6,250 maiden claimer for fillies and mares dashing six furlongs on dirt.

Only six horses have entered Race 4, and the runners who have been competing at Hawthorne recently don’t appear overly formidable. #6 Wahida of Mardan (9-2) looks like one of the best after finishing fourth in a 5 1/2-furlong $25,000 maiden claimer at Hawthorne, but the 52 Brisnet Speed rating she posted is 13 points lower than the par winning number for Thursday’s conditions. Wahida of Mardan hasn’t cracked the trifecta in six dirt starts, and four of her five highest Brisnet Speed ratings have been earned on turf.

For these reasons, Pure Hickory is appealing. She ran once at Hawthorne last fall, rallying to finish second (beaten only half a length) when debuting in a $20,000 maiden claimer dashing 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. That effort earned a 61 Brisnet Speed rating.

Pure Hickory subsequently trained and campaigned at Fair Grounds in Louisiana. She tired after racing close to the pace in a one-mile $30,000 maiden claimer on turf, finishing seventh. But she fared better when switching to dirt and dropping down in class and distance for a six-furlong $12,500 maiden claimer. Facing nine rivals, Pure Hickory made a mid-race move from off the pace before tiring to finish fifth. She earned a 54 Brisnet Speed rating.

Returning to Hawthorne for a $6,250 claimer should make Pure Hickory tough to beat for trainer Hugh Robertson, who has gone 2-for-5 (40%) at Hawthorne this meet. She’s a compelling win contender, so in addition to singling Pure Hickory in the Pick 6, we suggest betting her to win.

• Race 4: $30 to win on #4 Pure Hickory

Good luck!

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