Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Cold double at Gulfstream Park

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Jan. 8 at Tampa Bay Downs and Gulfstream Park, along with a single for the $4,557 Pick 5 carryover at Penn National.

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• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 8x Points at Your Most Wagered Track: Receive 8x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at your most wagered track each day this week from Monday through Sunday.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 3: $8,000 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:45 p.m. ET)

After being claimed by hot trainer Juan Arriagada, #7 Bold Baby (8-5) made her Tampa Bay Downs debut in a $16,000 claimer sprinting six furlongs on Nov. 20. After carving out the pace, she weakened in the homestretch to finish third by 3 1/2 lengths.

Dropping into a 5 1/2-furlong $8,000 claimer should make Bold Baby tough to beat under jockey Samy Camacho, a 40% winner teaming up with Arriagada over the last two months. Let’s bet Bold Baby to win and play her over #5 St. Joe Jet (9-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #7 Bold Baby (8-5)
• #5 St. Joe Jet (9-2)
• #2 Pesadilla Channel (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Bold Baby
• $10 Exacta: 7 with 5
  Total: $30

Gulfstream Park: Race 4: $17,500 Maiden Claiming (1 1/8 miles on Tapeta, 1:56 p.m. ET)

#1 Live to Ride (7-2) hasn’t cracked the trifecta in five starts on turf and dirt, but he fared better in his lone try on Tapeta. In a one-mile and 70-yard $25,000 claimer at Gulfstream Park, he pressed the pace on his way to finishing second by a neck.

Returning to Tapeta for a $17,500 maiden claimer should place Live to Ride in the hunt for victory. Let’s bet him to win and single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #1 Live to Ride (7-2)
• #5 Take Your Seats (5-2)
• #7 Operatnthunderbolt (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Live to Ride
• $10 Double: 1 with 1
  Total: $30

Gulfstream Park: Race 5: $25,000 Maiden Claiming (five furlongs on Tapeta, 2:28 p.m. ET)

#1 Rock Hard Rose (9-5) is dropping in class out of three maiden special weights on turf. She finished second in her debut at Monmouth Park, then faded from pacesetting positions to finish fifth at Kentucky Downs and eighth at Gulfstream Park.

Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. wins at a lofty 34% rate with horses descending from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company, so the class drop should help Rock Hard Rose challenge for top honors under hot jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., a 33% winner teaming up with Joseph over the last two months. The switch to Tapeta and the addition of Lasix can also help Rock Hard Rose improve.

Let’s single Rock Hard Rose to conclude our double wager, then bet her to win.

Selections

• #1 Rock Hard Rose (9-5)
• #6 Grand Sticker (15-1)
• #7 Orquidea Real (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Rock Hard Rose

Carryover Watch

Penn National: Race 5: $4,557 Pick 5 carryover (8:11 p.m. ET)

Although winter weather has led to plenty of tracks canceling recent and upcoming race cards, at the time of this writing Penn National is slated to race as scheduled on Wednesday. That means bettors will have a chance to chase a $4,557 carryover in the $1 Pick 5.

The five-race sequence contains 43 horses (averaging 8.6 per race) and 46,080 possible outcomes. The difficulty level looks middle of the road, complicated by the $1 minimum bet amount (twice the usual 50-cent minimum for Pick 5 wagers), but simplified by the possibility of singling #6 Socially Awkward (5-2) in Race 6.

Race 6 is a $16,000 starter optional claimer for older horses racing one mile on dirt. These conditions should suit Socially Awkward to perfection. Three starts back, he dominated a race over this track, distance, and class level by seven lengths, earning an 86 Brisnet Speed rating.

Socially Awkward was claimed out of that win by trainer Bruce Kravets, who brought the gelding back in another one-mile $16,000 starter optional claimer at Penn National. In his first start for Kravets, Socially Awkward set the pace before finishing second by a head against next-out Penn National allowance winner Uncle Caesar. He pulled 18 3/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher and earned a career-best 91 Brisnet Speed rating.

Socially Awkward’s latest effort was a solid try in a 1 1/16-mile allowance for Pennsylvania-breds at Penn National. After pressing the pace, he took command in midstretch, only to falter late and finish second with an 86 Brisnet Speed rating.

Returning to the $16,000 starter optional claiming level should make Socially Awkward a formidable win threat. None of the seven rivals he’s slated to face have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 86, nor a number higher than 84 in their last eight starts apiece.

In other words, if Socially Awkward brings his A game, Brisnet Speed ratings suggest no one is fast enough to beat him. That’s why Pick 5 bettors can feel good about their chances singling Socially Awkward.

Good luck!