Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Keeneland’s $10,587 Super High 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, April 23 at Keeneland, Horseshoe Indianapolis, and Charles Town, including horses to play in Keeneland’s $10,587 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Keeneland 25% Double Down: Hit two double wagers on any day at Keeneland from April 23 through April 25 to receive a 25% boost (up to a daily maximum of $25) on all winning double wagers at Keeneland for the day.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $300 Keeneland Feeder to 5/2 Kentucky Oaks KDBC Qualifier
• $200 Evangeline Downs Feeder to 5/1 Thurby KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:32 p.m. ET)

High-percentage trainer Brad Cox doesn’t typically debut juveniles during the spring meet at Keeneland, so it’s noteworthy to see #11 Kontiki (7-2) getting started this early.

The daughter of juvenile champion Midshipman enters off a bullet three-furlong workout from the Payson Park starting gate and is slated to be ridden by Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat, a 30% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months. If Kontiki’s 7-2 morning-line odds hold up, a win bet is in order, along with an exacta using #1 Gracie’s Delight (5-2) for second place.

Selections

• #11 Kontiki (7-2)
• #1 Gracie’s Delight (5-2)
• #3 Nonna’s Love (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #11 Kontiki
• $10 Exacta: 11 with 1
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: $5,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 4:14 p.m. ET)

#9 Lalily (15-1) hasn’t finished better than fifth in seven career starts. But five of those were on turf and Tapeta, and the other two were maiden special weights on dirt.

Lalily has consistently shown early speed and may appreciate returning to dirt for a $5,000 maiden claimer, her easiest race to date. At 15-1, she’s worthy of a small win bet.

Selections

• #9 Lalily (15-1)
• #6 Computadora (7-2)
• #4 Chemical Reaction (7-5)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #9 Lalily

Charles Town: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (7 furlongs on dirt, 7:00 p.m. ET)

#3 Our Miss Crossbow (6-5) ought to win her second start. In her debut sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs over this track and class level on March 14, she stumbled at the start, but rallied to finish second by a neck.

The 70 Brisnet Speed rating Our Miss Crossbow earned is higher than the par winning number (66) for Wednesday’s conditions. #2 Keep Shining On Us (6-1), who has recorded several top-three finishes over this track and class level, can battle with #5 Preshow Hype (5-2) to round out the trifecta.

Selections

• #3 Our Miss Crossbow (6-5)
• #2 Keep Shining On Us (6-1)
• #5 Preshow Hype (5-2)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 3 with 2,5 ($30)

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 8: $10,587 Super High 5 carryover (4:44 p.m. ET)

No one solved the $1 Super High 5 at Keeneland last Sunday, so when racing resumes at the Kentucky oval on Wednesday, bettors will have a $10,587 carryover to pursue.

The prize pool is up for grabs in Race 8, a maiden special weight for fillies and mares racing one mile over the turf course. An overflow field of 16 horses (including four also-eligibles) has entered; assuming a dozen horses start, there will be 95,040 possible Super High 5 outcomes.

Here are three horses (including two longshots) you’ll want to include on your tickets:

#2 Just So Pretty (8-5): A four-year-old daughter of Triple Crown winner Justify (who has sired numerous top-tier turf routers), Just So Pretty has cracked the trifecta in three of her last four starts against maiden special weight competition. Those efforts came at Saratoga, Aqueduct, and Gulfstream Park. Last time out, she was beaten only 1 3/4 lengths while earning an 83 Brisnet Speed rating one point higher than the par winning number for Wednesday’s conditions. Another top-three finish is within reach for Just So Pretty.

#9 Mildred Pierce (10-1): First-time starter Mildred Pierce looks capable of outrunning her odds for trainer Jimmy Toner, a 19% winner with horses debuting on turf. She’s put together an encouraging work tab highlighted by several quick workouts over the Palm Meadows turf course (including a bullet half-mile in :47), and she’s bred to shine on grass. Her dam, War Flag, won the Flower Bowl (G1) on turf and is the dam of La Prevoyante (G3) winner Personal Best and Mac Diarmida (G2) hero Capture the Flag, both graded stakes winners on grass. Under five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., Mildred Pierce is a compelling double-digit longshot.

#11 Love Song (15-1): Godolphin homebred Love Song made her grass debut in a one-mile maiden special weight at Fair Grounds last month. After settling in midfield, she rallied to finish second with a respectable 78 Brisnet Speed rating. A full-sister to Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Mystic Guide, Love Song is eligible to improve while making her second grass start, which is a 21% winning angle for trainer Michael Stidham.

Good luck!