Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 15-1 in the Nashville Gold Cup

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for a trio of stakes on Wednesday, Sept. 11 at Delaware Park, Horseshoe Indianapolis, and Kentucky Downs, along with horses to play in the $6,360 Pick 6 carryover at Finger Lakes.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Assiniboia Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on single-horse win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any of the four final races each race day at Assiniboia Downs from Sept. 9-24.
• Hoosier Park $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Hoosier Park each Wednesday.
• Kentucky Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Kentucky Downs from Aug. 29 through Sept. 11.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Delaware Park: Race 4: Small Wonder S. (six furlongs on dirt, 2 p.m. ET)

#6 Caprice (8-5) is unbeaten in two starts sprinting 5 1/2 furlong at Delaware Park. She debuted in a maiden special weight and tracked the pace before powering clear to dominate by 13 3/4 lengths. Then she stepped up in class for the Blue Hen S. and dueled for the lead on her way to victory by 2 1/2 lengths.

Those wins yielded Brisnet Speed ratings of 81 and 86. The only other filly in the Small Wonder field who has posted a Brisnet Speed rating as high as 86 is #5 Great Andrei (6-1), and Caprice finished 7 1/2 lengths clear of Grand Andrei in the Blue Hen.

In other words, Caprice is hands-down the filly to beat in the Small Wonder. Let’s bet her over Blue Hen runner-up #1 Onyx Ten (7-2) and longshot #2 No Need to Ask (12-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Caprice (8-5)
• #1 Onyx Ten (7-2)
• #2 No Need to Ask (12-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 6 with 1
• $10 Exacta: 6 with 2
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 7: Hoosier Heartland H. (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 5:16 p.m. ET)

#5 Diamond Solitaire (5-2) is the morning-line favorite after winning back-to-back stakes sprinting six furlongs at Horseshoe Indianapolis, but she’s never won racing 1 1/16 miles despite trying on many occasions. Possibly this distance is a little farther than she wants to run.

#1 Itzforever (5-1) and #3 Forever Pink (9-2) have done better running long and have upset chances. Itzforever won the one-mile and 70-yard Lady Fog Horn H. at Horseshoe Indianapolis last year, while Forever Pink has prevailed in each of her last three starts running long over the Horseshoe Indianapolis dirt.

Let’s box Forever Pink and Itzforever in the exacta.

Selections

• #3 Forever Pink (9-2)
• #1 Itzforever (5-1)
• #5 Diamond Solitaire (5-2)

Wagers

• $8 Exacta: box 1,3 ($16)

Kentucky Downs: Race 8: Nashville Gold Cup (2 1/16 miles on turf, 5:18 p.m. ET)

#1 The Grey Wizard (7-5) is an obvious win threat after posting back-to-back wins in the two-mile Belmont Gold Cup (G2) and 1 1/2-mile Cape Henlopen S. But Irish raider #9 Familiar Dreams (15-1) may have upset potential in her U.S. debut.

This year, Familiar Dreams has made five starts over distances from 1 15/16 miles to 2 1/16 miles. She’s won them all, including the Weatherbys General Stud Book Irish EBF Mares INH Flat Race (G3).

Trainer Gordon Elliott does well with his occasional shippers to the U.S., going 3-for-6 (50%) last year and 2-for-4 (50%) in 2022. Familiar Dreams appears well-spotted to vie for victory in the Nashville Gold Cup, so let’s bet her to win and key her over The Grey Wizard in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #9 Familiar Dreams (15-1)
• #1 The Grey Wizard (7-5)
• #7 Limited Liability (7-2)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #9 Familiar Dreams
• $15 Exacta: 9 with 1
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $6,360 Pick 6 carryover (1:58 p.m. ET)

Planning to play Wednesday’s $6,360 Pick 6 carryover at Finger Lakes? We’ve analyzed the entries and identified a pair of non-favored runners to include on your tickets:

Race 3: #2 Devilly (5-1)

The opening leg of the Pick 6 is a $5,000 claimer for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on dirt. It’s restricted to horses who haven’t won a race since March 11 or horses who have never won four races.

Morning-line favorite #6 Leadership Ability (5-2) qualifies via the latter condition. It’s hard to knock her form; she hasn’t missed the trifecta in four starts for hot trainer Michael Ferraro while winning twice. But two of her three wins have come running long, and she’s definitely not a standout in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings. Her lone sprint win yielded a modest 66 Brisnet Speed rating.

That’s why fourth choice Devilly is an intriguing price play at 5-1. All three of her wins have come sprinting six furlongs, including two weeks ago at Finger Lakes when she took a $5,000 claimer for non-winners of three races. Devilly showed tactical speed that day and prevailed by 1 1/2 lengths with a 71 Brisnet Speed rating, the fourth time in her last 10 starts that she’s cracked the 70 mark.

Brisnet Speed ratings suggest Devilly has a strong chance to upset Leadership Ability. Don’t leave her out of the Pick 6.

Race 4: #2 Massey Hall (6-1)

It’s surprising to see Massey Hall listed as the 6-1 co-fourth choice in this $5,000 claimer for horses who haven’t won a race since Sept. 11, 2023. The nine-year-old gelding looks like an awesome fit for this six-furlong dirt sprint.

That’s partly because morning-line favorite #6 Trappe the Dream (5-2) looks vulnerable. The stretch-running chestnut hasn’t won a race since September 2022 and has finished sixth and third in his last two starts over this track and class level.

Trappe the Dream’s third-place finish came on Aug. 28. Guess who finished 2 3/4 lengths ahead of Trappe the Dream that day? None other than Massey Hall, who ran second with a 75 Brisnet Speed rating only one point lower than the par winning number (76) for Wednesday’s conditions.

There isn’t much speed in this field, so the fact Massey Hall routinely races close to the pace is a positive. He figures to work out a favorable trip close to a modest tempo, giving him every chance to take command and hold off Trappe the Dream in the homestretch.

Good luck!