2025 Arlington Million International Scouting Report: Cairo

Once a promising prospect for Aidan O’Brien, Cairo is in the midst of a renaissance for British trainer Alice Haynes. The well-traveled five-year-old might be just 3-for-21, but he brings a few interesting angles into Saturday’s Arlington Million (G1) at Colonial Downs.

Pedigree: By the same sire as Integration, out of a Galileo mare

Like Million favorite Integration, Cairo is a son of Quality Road. Bred by Coolmore in Ireland, Cairo is out of the stakes-winning Galileo mare Cuff. His dam’s career has more than a whiff of what-might-have-been. 

Cuff never raced after finishing fifth as the favorite in the Albany (G3) at Royal Ascot as a juvenile. Considering the accomplishments of several of her full siblings, most notably Gustav Klimt, and their Group 1-winning half-sister Nayarra, Cuff probably would have reached a higher level herself. 

Cairo is her best foal so far from four to race. Cuff’s current sophomore, Zabeel Alkabeir, just made a winning debut on the Lingfield turf for James Tate. 

This is the immediate family of the prolific sires Invincible Spirit and Kodiac. Also on the page is $16 million-earner Mishriff, a multiple highweight who famously beat Charlatan in the 2021 Saudi Cup. 

2022 Breeders’ Cup pre-entrant, 2023 Triple Crown nominee

Cairo won three of his first five starts for O’Brien, highlighted by the 2022 Killavullan (G3) at Leopardstown. Off that effort, he was pre-entered for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), but he didn’t make the trip to Keeneland. Stablemate Victoria Road went on to post a mild upset of Godolphin’s Silver Knott in that edition, prompting the question of how Cairo might have fared. 

With Quality Road as his sire, Cairo warranted an audition on dirt in hopes of becoming a Kentucky Derby (G1) candidate. The Triple Crown nominee kicked off his 2023 campaign by justifying odds-on favoritism in the Patton S. over Dundalk’s Polytrack, his prep for the UAE Derby (G2). Unfortunately, Cairo flopped in his dirt experiment at Meydan and wound up 10th. That was the beginning of a prolonged losing streak that he’ll try to end on Saturday. 

Classic placing before losing his way

Although Cairo hasn’t won since early 2023, his resume features several high-profile placings. He promptly turned the page on his Dubai debacle when back home on turf in the Irish 2000 Guineas (G1) at the Curragh, where he closed for second to streaking stablemate Paddington. The classic form was upheld as Paddington went on to take three more Group 1s. 

Cairo wasn’t seen again until that fall, placing on unsuitably heavy going at Leopardstown and finding the Hong Kong Mile (G1) too much for him. After opening 2024 with a near-miss rally in Qatar to hardy globetrotter Brave Emperor, he regressed to 12th in a deep Dubai Turf (G1) on World Cup night. 

By that point, Cairo was sold to Kuwaiti owner Refai Alghraiban, who subsequently transferred the colt to Haynes. The Newmarket-based trainer has won races in several countries, and her lone previous U.S. runner, Lady Hollywood, was a creditable fifth in the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1). 

Cairo had mixed results in his first four starts for Haynes last summer. He delivered characteristic runner-up efforts, going 1 1/8 miles in a listed stakes at Leopardstown and a conditions race at Glorious Goodwood. But he appeared to be up against it at a higher level. Cairo could manage no better than eighth in the Queen Anne (G1), and he trailed when attempting 1 1/4 miles on soft ground in the Winter Hill (G3).

Haynes recently told greatbritishracinginternational.com that Cairo had to spend time in Dubai quarantine before joining her last year. She believes that it had an adverse effect on him.  

Chasing Godolphin during the 2025 Dubai Carnival

Cairo has enjoyed a seamless 2025 under Haynes’s care, which has contributed to a rediscovery of form and a recent career-best placing. 

“I feel the horse has taken a massive step forward this year,” Haynes said.

That leap would come back home in Britain, but the foundation was laid during a productive Dubai Carnival. While Cairo was no match for Godolphin’s Grade/Group 1 star Measured Time in the Dec. 20 Al Rashidiya (G2), he chased throughout in second in course-record time. Cairo was only sixth when wheeling back, and shortening up, for the Jan. 3 Zabeel Mile (G2).

Cairo’s closest call of the Carnival came next out in the about 1 1/4-mile Dubai Millennium (G3), around the Million distance. Stalking a longshot pacesetter and striking the front in the stretch, he was collared late by Godolphin favorite First Conquest.

Cairo didn’t duplicate that result in his Dubai finale in the March 1 Singspiel (G2), where he set the pace and got outkicked in sixth. The winner was none other than Godolphin’s 2024 Million hero Nations Pride, who abdicates his throne here to try 1 1/2 miles in Saturday’s Sword Dancer (G1) at Saratoga.

Career-best form at present

One might have thought that Cairo had hit a plateau at this stage of his career, but he’s moved forward in both ensuing starts in Britain to defy huge odds.

Overlooked as the 40-1 longest shot on the board in the May 9 Huxley (G2) at Chester, Cairo pressed the pace, took over, and succumbed only to favored The Foxes. U.S. fans might remember The Foxes as the arguably unlucky runner-up in the 2023 Belmont Derby (G1), but he also finished fourth in last December’s ultra-tough Hong Kong Cup (G1) and second to Rebel’s Romance in Qatar’s H H The Amir Trophy (G3) in his prior start.

The 10 1/2-furlong Huxley was known to factor in the original Million at Arlington Park. Chester House won the Huxley the year before bolting up in the 2000 Million. Debussy, who took the Huxley in 2010, later shocked Gio Ponti at Arlington that summer. Deauville, the 2017 Huxley hero, placed third in both the 2016 and 2017 runnings of the Million. 

In his latest on June 17, Cairo was dismissed as a 100-1 no-hoper when trying the Queen Anne again at Royal Ascot. Indeed, the straight mile course didn’t figure to play to his strengths, let alone in a “Win and You’re In” for the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1). 

Yet Cairo proved his versatility by reverting to deep-closing tactics. Swooping from last, past such celebrities as Notable Speech and Carl Spackler, he finished an incredible third to horse-for-the-course Docklands and favored Rosallion. 

Arlington Million chances

Cairo has been mixing it up with some heavy hitters, and this year’s Million doesn’t have the greatest strength in depth. Stepping back up in trip and around turns at Colonial Downs will suit Cairo even better than Ascot did, especially if the ground is on the quicker side of good. He’s established his ability to take his game on the road in Qatar and Dubai, and his tactical flexibility is a plus for new rider Ben Curtis. 

The biggest question is whether Cairo can win a major event or if he’s stuck in the perpetual loop of placings. Judging on both individual form and race conditions, he promises to run well, but he must overcome the habit of settling for minors. 

Cairo reportedly has the Sept. 6 Mint Millions (G3) at Kentucky Downs on his radar as well. Last year, British shipper Ancient Rome ran in both the Arlington Million and the Mint Millions. For whatever it’s worth, Ancient Rome fared better when third at Colonial than he did at Kentucky Downs (seventh). If Cairo sticks to the same plan, he might help to establish an instructive pattern.