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Keeneland selections and analysis for Friday, April 14
We’ve been fortunate to experience amazing weather the first four days of Keeneland, and now we get a test on Friday, with scattered thunderstorms in the forecast.
Wagering
The impact of the new Road to the Kentucky Derby points system
Four consistent horses that in previous years would not have made the Kentucky Derby field are set to make it this year under the new points system that rewards those which run more often in prep races.
Kentucky Derby
Betting Strategy: Chris Larmey, “Nobody wants to be a fish"
To succeed long term, a horseplayer needs to know how to bet in order to cash in. Chris Larmey has begun a new podcast “Bet With the Best” aimed at exactly that.
Education
Laurel Park: How to bet the 2023 Federico Tesio Stakes
A well-matched field of nine sophomores will travel 1 1/8 miles on the Laurel Park dirt oval in Saturday’s $125,000 Federico Tesio S.
Wagering
Tipsheet: 2023 Lexington Stakes
An intriguing and well-matched field of 11 three-year-olds will travel 1 1/16 miles on the Keeneland main surface in Saturday’s $400,000 Lexington Stakes (G3).
Wagering
Kentucky Derby Report – Thrilling conclusion to major qualifiers
The Blue Grass (G1), Santa Anita Derby (G1), and Wood Memorial (G2) concluded the eight major qualifiers in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series, each race awarding points on a 100-40-30-20-10 basis to the top five finishers, and a 20-horse field has taken shape for Churchill Downs on May 6.
Kentucky Derby
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Jason Beem's Thursday Column for Apr. 13, 2023
Jason follows up on a discussion from his podcast about the "all-button".
Analysis
Exotics Plays for the 2023 Maker's Mark Mile
A fantastic field of eight will travel one mile on the Keeneland lawn in Friday’s $600,000 Maker’s Mark Mile S. (G1).
Wagering
Harness Preview: Picks and Horses to Watch April 13-17
Selected features, stakes coverage and the never-ending TwinSpires’ horses-to-watch list (H2W) share keys to success in exotics, win, place and show payoffs.
Harness
Meet the Contenders: 2023 Lexington Stakes
Meet the horses running in the 2023 Lexington (G3) over 1 1/16 miles at Keeneland. For each horse, we're listing a pro, a con, and a rating of potential.
Racing
Keeler Johnson's picks and plays April 13
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, April 13 at Gulfstream Park and Keeneland, along with a horse to single in the $66,705 Pick 6 carryover at Aqueduct.
Wagering
Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast: April 13, 2023
Jason opens the show discussing some racing news as well as sharing some thoughts on the "all button." He also discusses some of the Keeneland and Oaklawn Stakes coming up this weekend.
Racing Podcast
Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast: April 12, 2023
Jason opens the show discussing more retirements around the world of racing as well as the Wednesday Keeneland card. Then we welcome in jockey Tyler Conner to the show to talk about riding at Penn National, the travel of a Mid-Atlantic jockey, and much more!
Racing Podcast
Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of April 12
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, April 12 at Keeneland, along with horses to play in a pair of non-jackpot carryovers at Keeneland and Tampa Bay Downs.
Racing
Swimming in the pools of Kentucky Derby betting enthusiasm
Betting handle reveals the enthusiasm for the Kentucky Derby (G1). Contested annually on the first Saturday in May, the Kentucky Derby serves as the standard-bearer for the North America Thoroughbred racing industry.
Kentucky Derby
Should you bet or dismiss a horse off a bad race?
It happens all the time. A horse enters a race off a poor performance in its previous start, leaving bettors to wonder—will the horse rebound, or run badly again?
Education
Racing Roundtable: Developments on the road to the Kentucky Derby and Oaks
James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson discuss developments on the final major weekend of Kentucky Derby (G1) and Kentucky Oaks (G1) preps in this edition of the Racing Roundtable.
Analysis
MC Hammer, Bacharach & Steinbrenner: Kentucky Derby celebrities are uniquely fans and participants
However, what differentiates the Derby from, say, the Super Bowl or Wimbledon, is that not only can well-known personalities come to Churchill Downs to watch the big race, but they also have an opportunity, however small the chances, to actually participate in it.
Kentucky Derby
Pedigree notebook: Starspangledbanner yet waves with Papilio, and more
By the time that Papilio got up in Saturday’s Appalachian (G2) at Keeneland, sire Starspangledbanner was already having quite a weekend.
Pedigree
Keeler Johnson's picks and plays April 11
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, April 11 at Turf Paradise and Mahoning Valley, including a trifecta capitalizing on the Trifecta Tuesday promotion.
Wagering
Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast: April 11, 2023
Jason opens the show discussing the Santa Anita Derby from this past weekend. Then he welcomes in horseplayer Nico from Tampa to talk about how he crushed the Wood Memorial, his horseplaying journey, Twitter Spaces, and much more!
Racing
Catching My Eye: Keeneland Opening Day
Horses that caught my eye on the opening day of the Keeneland 2023 spring meeting.
Features
Kentucky Derby International Scouting Report: Derma Sotogake
Derma Sotogake rates as Japan’s leading Kentucky Derby (G1) contender after his front-running coup on Dubai World Cup night.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby International Scouting Report: Continuar
Having lost all three match-ups with leading Japanese contender Derma Sotogake, is there a case for Continuar to turn the tables in the Kentucky Derby (G1)?
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Lord Miles
Few bettors expected Lord Miles to win the Wood Memorial (G2), but the pace-tracking colt defied expectations to prevail by a nose at 59-1, stamping his ticket to the 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1).
Kentucky Derby
Jason Beem's Monday Morning Message April 10, 2023
Jason looks back at the weekend and discusses Tapit Trice's win as well as the current Kentucky Derby points leaderboard.
Racing
Keeler Johnson's picks and plays April 10
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $90 worth of picks and plays for Monday, April 10 at Will Rogers Downs and Turf Paradise, including exactas and a trifecta.
Wagering
Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast: April 10, 2023
Jason looks back at the huge prep weekend, including Tapit Trice's big win in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. He discusses Keeneland's opening weekend as well as the Wood Memorial card at Aqueduct.
Racing Podcast
Harness Weekly Update: Big parlay hit tops highlights
Parlay provides $134; Borgata $74 hit; cold and hot exactas flow
Harness
Top 5 horse racing songs
We look at the top five horse racing songs customarily played at Thoroughbred racetracks around the country, and give honorable mention to one toe-tapping tune broadcast before a harness race in Ohio as well as a beloved ballad sung by racegoers Down Under.
Features
Golden Gate: How to bet the $2,560 Super High 5 carryover
If you’re still excited from Saturday’s slate of Kentucky Derby prep races, perhaps you’d like to try your luck at winning a share of Sunday’s $2,560 Super High 5 carryover at Golden Gate Fields.
Wagering
The Heart that Wears the Crown: Omaha
When any Triple Crown winner goes to stud, the high expectations set by winning that coveted trophy come along, as fans eagerly anticipate the next generation. Can he copy himself and produce another just like him? Of the 13 to have worn the crown, only one has done what is nearly impossible, a feat unlikely to be duplicated anytime soon: siring another Triple Crown winner.
Education
Chasing lucrative Pick 6 carryovers at Keeneland, Santa Anita
A giant Saturday of racing just got even better. Keeneland has a $53,845 Pick 6 carryover up for grabs, while Santa Anita has scheduled the mandatory payout of a $391,547 Rainbow Pick 6 jackpot.
Wagering
Mattress Mack: A colorful gallery of big bet action
There are few more colorful people in the United States than Houston Furniture store tycoon "Mattress Mack". Successful businessman, he's also a unique figure in Thoroughbred racing.
Kentucky Derby
Handicappers Debate: 2023 Blue Grass at Keeneland
This week’s debate features a major qualifier in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series, as handicappers Ashley Anderson and James Scully offer differing opinions on Saturday’s $1 million Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland.
Racing
Keeneland selections and analysis for Saturday, April 8
Racing analyst Ashley Anderson provides her top picks for the 11-race card at Keeneland on Saturday featuring the Blue Grass Stakes.
Wagering
The Jury: Bets and fades for April 8
Classic preps and other top class offerings at Keeneland, Aqueduct, and Santa Anita are the focus in this week's meeting of the TwinSpires Jury.
Wagering
Free Download: 2023 Betting Guides for Blue Grass Stakes, Wood Memorial Stakes, Santa Anita Derby
The Blue Grass Stakes, Wood Memorial Stakes, and Santa Anita Derby Betting Guides are editorial content to help you form a strong betting ticket for these Road to the Kentucky Derby events.
Kentucky Derby
Ashland Stakes: Betting with, and against, Wonder Wheel
After a surprise defeat for Wonder Wheel on her three-year-old debut, it’s entirely reasonable to look elsewhere in the Ashland for a winner.
Wagering
Exotics plays for the 2023 Transylvania Stakes
If the morning line odds are anything to go by, the one to beat in the Transylvania is a maiden winner untested in stakes company.
Wagering
Santa Anita: Stakes Spot Plays for April 8
A total of six black-type races will headline a blockbuster day of racing at Santa Anita on Saturday.
Wagering
Santa Anita Derby International Scouting Report: Mandarin Hero
After two Japanese horses are already in the Kentucky Derby (G1) – Derma Sotogake by romping in the UAE Derby (G2) and Continuar accepting the Japan Road invitation – Mandarin Hero tries to make it three in Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby (G1).
Kentucky Derby
Aqueduct: Stakes Spot Plays for April 8
A quartet of excellent graded stakes races will highlight the action at Aqueduct on Saturday, led by the $750,000 Wood Memorial S.
Wagering
Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of April 7
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, April 7 at Keeneland, along with horses to single in the $31,586 Pick 6 carryover at Aqueduct.
Wagering
Sydney Preview: The 2023 Championships Day 2
Sydney’s autumn carnival reaches its climax with day two of The Championships at Royal Randwick.
International
Catching My Eye: In Person at the Arkansas Derby
I walked the last block, taking in the Arkansas Derby Day crowd. Oaklawn Racing Casino Resort was buzzing.
Features
Kentucky Derby Report – Forte rallies dramatically, Angel of Empire soars
Kentucky Derby favorite Forte saved his best for the stretch drive, and Angel of Empire continued his progression with an authoritative win.
Kentucky Derby
Jason Beem's Thursday Column for April 6, 2023
Jason discusses his favorite race call of all time, the 2005 American Oaks from Hollywood Park.
Racing
Meet the Contenders: 2023 Santa Anita Derby
Meet the horses running in the 2023 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park with pro/cons and star ratings.
Racing
Meet the Contenders: 2023 Blue Grass Stakes
Meet the horses running in the 2023 Blue Grass (G1) over 1 1/8 miles at Keeneland. For each horse, we're listing a pro, a con, and a rating of potential.
Racing
Meet the Contenders: 2023 Wood Memorial
Meet the horses running in the 2023 Wood Memorial (G2) over 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct on April 8. For each horse, we're listing a pro, a con, and a rating of potential.
Racing
Tipsheet: 2023 Santa Anita Derby
A fantastic field of nine sophomores will travel 1 1/8 miles on the dirt in Saturday’s exciting $750,000 Santa Anita Derby (G1).
Wagering
Tipsheet: 2023 Blue Grass Stakes
An excellent field of 11 three-year-olds will travel 1 1/8 miles on the Keeneland main surface in Saturday’s $1 million Blue Grass Stakes (G1).
Wagering
Tipsheet: 2023 Wood Memorial Stakes
A dozen three-year-olds will travel 1 1/8 miles on the dirt at Aqueduct in Saturday’s $750,000 Wood Memorial S.
Kentucky Derby
Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast: April 6, 2023
Jason discusses an interesting Pick 5 sequence and payout at Tampa to open the show. Then he discusses the huge upcoming Kentucky Derby prep races, including the Santa Anita Derby, the Wood Memorial, and the Blue Grass.
Racing Podcast
Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of April 6
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, April 6 at Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park, and Charles Town, including a trio of exactas.
Wagering
Harness Preview: Picks and Horses to Watch April 6-10
Selected features, stakes coverage and the never-ending TwinSpires’ horses-to-watch list (H2W) share keys to success in exotics, win, place and show payoffs.
Harness
Pedigree lingo: Phrases to known in horse racing
Words like “sire,” “dam,” and “broodmare” don’t necessarily mean a lot to those unfamiliar with horses or horse racing. Fortunately, the lingo isn’t as complicated as it sounds.
Racing
Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast: April 5, 2023
Jason opens the show discussing all the different kinds of biases people have and how they might affect your horseplaying and handicapping. Then he looks ahead to the Keeneland opening day card.
Racing Podcast
Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of April 5
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, April 5 at Mahoning Valley and Turf Paradise, including tickets for Tampa’s $2,672 Super High 5 carryover.
Wagering
Hong Kong Preview: Helene Feeling to build on debut HK effort
Helene Feeling can build upon his impressive first outing in Hong Kong and take out the Lusitano Challenge Cup Handicap at Happy Valley on Thursday.
International
Racing Roundtable: Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby
James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson discuss the two major Kentucky Derby (G1) preps of the past week and also a little Kentucky Oaks (G1) talk in this edition of the Racing Roundtable.
Features
Pedigree notebook: Grace blooms for Amazing family
German import Amazing Grace combines several themes — an imperiled sire line, excellent family, and connections to current headliners in both Europe and Australia — along with individual appeal in the female turf division.
Pedigree
Keeler Johnson's picks and plays April 4
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, April 4 at Mahoning Valley and Will Rogers Downs, including a superfecta.
Wagering
Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast: April 4, 2023
Jason opens the show discussing racing and some things it could learn from other sports. Then we welcome in Nick Tammaro to talk Sam Houston racing, the upcoming Keeneland meet, morning lines, and much more!
Racing Podcast
How and when to bet a Power Box
Boxing bets. There have always been pros and cons to this catch-all strategy. If only there were a way to box bets in a more nuanced manner. Well guess what? That’s what a Power Box is for.
Racing
Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast April 3, 2023
Jason looks back at the big weekend of racing including the Florida Derby card at Gulfstream Park. He talks about Forte's win, Mage's big effort, and more!
Racing
Monday Morning Message with Jason Beem April 3, 2023
Jason looks back at this past weekend's Florida Derby and discusses the race and the top two finishers.
Features
Keeler Johnson's picks and plays April 3
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, April 3 at Will Rogers Downs and Turf Paradise, including a trio of exactas.
Wagering
Harness Weekly Update: 53% across-the-board strike rate
Live contenders hit the board 53% in H2W with $33 top winner
Harness
Gulfstream Park: Analyzing the $955,873 mandatory-payout Pick 6 carryover
$955,873. That’s the size of the Rainbow Pick 6 carryover slated for mandatory dispersal on Sunday at Gulfstream Park.
Racing
Forte heavily favored in Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 6
Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Kentucky Derby twice with Super Saver (2010) and Always Dreaming (2017). According to bettors, there’s a strong chance a third win is on the horizon.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Forever Young
A powerful seven-length victory in Japan’s Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun at Kawasaki Racecourse stamped Forever Young as a formidable 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1) contender, a status he confirmed with globetrotting victories in the Saudi Derby (G3) and UAE Derby (G2).
Racing
Turfway Park: Chasing three mandatory-payout carryovers on closing day
Saturday is closing day of the winter/spring meet at Turfway Park, and there are three—yes, three!—carryovers slated for mandatory dispersal.
Wagering
The Jury: Bets and fades for April 1
The Florida and Arkansas Derby Day programs offer a plethora of wagering opportunities on Saturday, which the TwinSpires Jury has focused on this week.
Racing
Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of March 31
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, March 31 at Tampa Bay Downs, Oaklawn Park, and Turfway Park, including tickets for Turfway’s $5,177 Super High 5 carryover.
Racing
Sydney Preview: The 2023 Championships Day 1
Sydney’s autumn carnival culminates with the Championships, held over successive weekends at Royal Randwick beginning Friday March 31 ET.
International
Kentucky Derby Report – Speed rules in Louisiana, Japanese trio added to mix
Three of the eight major qualifiers in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series are in the books, and large fields are set for the $1.25 Arkansas Derby (G1) and $1 million Florida Derby (G1) this Saturday.
Kentucky Derby
Handicappers Debate: 2023 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park
The Arkansas Derby (G1) is arguably the more competitive of the two Kentucky Derby (G1) preps this weekend and is the focus of this week’s debate.
Wagering
Oaklawn Park Stakes Spot Plays for April 1
A quartet of stakes races are carded for Oaklawn Park on Saturday, topped by the lucrative $1.25 million Arkansas Derby (G1).
Wagering
Jason Beem's Thursday Column for March 30, 2023
March is Problem Gambling Awareness Month, and Jason shares some thoughts on that.
Features
Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of March 30
Handicapper Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, March 30 at Gulfstream Park, Oaklawn Park, and Aqueduct, along with horses to play in the $2,189 Super High 5 carryover at Turfway Park.
Wagering
Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast: March 30, 2023
Jason opens the show talking about the Wednesday Pick 5 sequences at Tampa and their similarities and differences that led to big payouts. Then he looks ahead at some of the undercard stakes at Gulfstream Park for Saturday.
Racing Podcast
Gulfstream Park Turf Stakes Spot Plays April 1
Of the 10 black-type events on the blockbuster afternoon of action at Gulfstream, six will be contested on the turf.
Wagering
What is the Place Pick All, and how do you bet it?
Once in a while you’ll see a racetrack offer a less common type of wager. One example is the “Place Pick All”.
Education
Harness Preview: Picks and Horses to Watch March 30-April 3
Selected features, stakes coverage and the never-ending TwinSpires’ horses-to-watch list (H2W) share keys to success in exotics, win, place and show payoffs.
Harness
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Continuar
A victory in the Cattleya S. and a third-place finish in the UAE Derby (G2) earned Continuar enough Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby qualification points to secure a berth in the 2023 Kentucky Derby.
Kentucky Derby
Catching My Eye: Louisiana Derby Day at Fair Grounds
Kingsbarns won the Louisiana Derby but does he have a shot in the Kentucky Derby (G1)?
Analysis
Meet the Contenders: 2023 Florida Derby
Meet the horses running in the 2023 Florida Derby (G1) over 1 1/8 miles at Gulfstream Park on April 1. For each horse, we're listing a pro, a con, and a rating of potential. The star rating of 1 to 5 represents opportunity to perform well in the Florida Derby.
Kentucky Derby
Meet the Contenders: 2023 Arkansas Derby
Meet the horses running in the 2023 Arkansas Derby (G1) over 1 1/8 miles at Oaklawn on April 1. For each horse, we're listing a pro, a con, and a rating of potential. The star rating of 1 to 5 represents opportunity to perform well in the Arkansas Derby.
Kentucky Derby
Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast: March 29, 2023
Jason welcomes in trainer Norm Casse to the show to talk about Southlawn's win in the Fair Grounds Oaks as well as her potential for the Kentucky Oaks. They also talk about his successful winter, training at Churchill Downs, and much more!
Racing Podcast
Keeler Johnson's picks and plays March 29
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, March 29 at Tampa Bay Downs and Turf Paradise, including tickets for Tampa’s $2,123 Super High 5 carryover.
Wagering
Forte leads way in KDFW Pool 6
The final pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW), Pool 6 will open its three-day run on Thursday and closes at 6 p.m. (ET) Saturday, prior to the runnings of the Florida Derby (G1) and Arkansas Derby (G1).
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Wild On Ice
An upset victory in the Sunland Park Derby (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby propelled Wild On Ice into the spotlight. But does he have the pedigree to handle the Derby's 1 1/4-mile distance?
Kentucky Derby
Racing Roundtable: Derby and Oaks prep review and Dubai World Cup
James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson review the leading events of the past weekend from Dubai, New Orleans, Kentucky, and elsewhere in this week's Racing Roundtable.
Analysis
The 2023 Florida Derby Tipsheet
A field of 12 three-year-olds will travel 1 1/8 miles on the dirt at Gulfstream Park in Saturday’s $1 million Florida Derby (G1).
Wagering
The 2023 Arkansas Derby Tipsheet
An excellent field of 11 three-year-olds will travel 1 1/8 miles on the Oaklawn Park dirt in Saturday’s $1.25 million Arkansas Derby (G1).
Wagering
Pedigree notebook: Big mo for Uncle Mo
Uncle Mo’s big weekend extended to the Kentucky Oaks (G1) preps, won by two of his granddaughters.
Pedigree