Fair Grounds: Analyzing the $8,592 Pick 6 carryover

February 3rd, 2024

There aren’t any stakes on the Saturday card at Fair Grounds, but there is a non-jackpot Pick 6 carryover worth $8,592 enticing bettors to play.

The sequence begins in Race 5 (post time 3:45 p.m. ET), a $12,500 allowance optional claimer for Louisiana-breds racing about one mile on turf. #7 Mi Solution (3-1), runner-up by half a length over these conditions on Jan. 13, is a logical favorite. The five-year-old gelding has early speed and meets a field without much pace on paper, so the door is open for a gate-to-wire victory.

Race 6, a six-furlong dirt allowance for fillies and mares, drew only seven entries. #5 Speedy Traveler (2-1) wired a maiden special weight over this track and distance on Dec. 31 and has every chance to repeat while stepping up in class, though she isn’t a Brisnet Speed rating standout. #7 Coexist (3-1), runner-up twice in recent allowance sprints at Fair Grounds, is a logical challenger from off the pace.

Race 7 is an allowance for older horses dashing about 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. Stretch-running #4 Son of a Birch (7-2) is the morning line favorite after finishing second in back-to-back contests over this course, distance, and class level, but his running style could prove disadvantageous. Pacesetters have won 47% of the 5 1/2-furlong turf sprints this meet, so don’t underestimate the dirt-to-turf speedsters #8 Cash Fever (9-2) and #10 Zippin Gigi (4-1).

Seven fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs on dirt in Race 8, a $50,000 allowance optional claimer. #6 Charriere (3-1), runner-up over these conditions on Dec. 22, is the slim favorite. But #1 Happy Am I (7-2) has run faster on the Brisnet Speed rating scale, trouncing a 5 1/2-furlong allowance at Churchill Downs last time out by 6 1/4 lengths, and this daughter of champion sprinter Runhappy might be the more likely winner.

Race 9 is a $100,000 allowance optional claimer for three-year-olds racing about 1 1/16 miles on turf. The field doesn’t contain a ton of speed on paper, which should lend an advantage to #7 St. Armands Key (7-2), who beat a next-out winner when wiring a maiden special weight over this course and distance last time out. But #3 Gorilla Trek (4-1) has potential for a mild upset; he’s only run twice on turf, rallying to win a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs before finishing a troubled 10th (beaten only 3 1/4 lengths) in the Bourbon (G2) at Keeneland. The son of Curlin still has upside for hot trainer Philip Bauer.

The Pick 6 wraps up with Race 10, a $15,000 claimer for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on dirt. A large field has turned out, and spreading deep may be necessary to guarantee survival. #11 Saint Eros Girl (7-2) is definitely one to include; the consistent five-year-old mare owns sharp Brisnet Speed ratings and recently ended an eight-month layoff with a 5 3/4-length romp in a $12,500 claimer at Aqueduct.

Good luck!