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Racing Roundtable: Senor Buscador's Saudi Cup upset, Timberlake's Rebel win, and Lemon Muffin's potential
This week, the Racing Roundtable convenes to discuss Senor Buscador's upset of the Saudi Cup, Timberlake's win in the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn, and Lemon Muffin's potential for trainer D. Wayne Lukas.
Analysis
Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: Four winners running long
Reasoned Analysis failed to factor in two starts as a juvenile, but the Chad Brown trainee broke through in his three-year-old debut, emerging as a possible Kentucky Derby (G1) contender.
Analysis
2024 Saudi Cup: Seven trends to watch
Although the $20 million Saudi Cup (G1) is still a relatively recent edition to the racing calendar, several trends have already emerged from its first four runnings at King Abdulaziz Racecourse in Riyadh.
Trends
Catching My Eye: What Did We Learn from The Risen Star?
Billed as the most-stacked Kentucky Derby Prep race to date, what did we learn from Saturday’s Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds?
Analysis
Why forgiving a disappointing second start can reap rewards
When a horse wins impressively on debut, but follows up with a disappointing defeat second-time out, it can be tempting to dismiss them as a flash in the pan.
Education
Racing Roundtable: Risen Star, Rachel Alexandra Stakes and other eye-catching performances
This week, the Racing Roundtable weighs in on Sierra Leone's win in the Risen Star S. (G2), Tarifa's stakes debut in the Rachel Alexandra (G2), and notable performances from the weekend.
Analysis
Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: Antiquarian scores for Pletcher
On Feb. 18, 2018, Justify won his debut in eye-catching fashion. Less than four months later he was a Triple Crown winner, proving late February isn’t too late for a Kentucky Derby (G1) winner to break his maiden.
Features
Trackside: 2024 Risen Star Week at Fair Grounds [VIDEO]
TwinSpires is trackside all week from Fair Grounds as we talk with trainers, visit with horses and host barn tours. Our team of Abbey Huffman, Ashley Anderson and Blaise Bollman give you exclusive access to one of the main staging grounds of winter racing and Kentucky Derby hopefuls.
Triple Crown
The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets and Fades for Feb. 17 [Video]
Racing analysts Ashley Anderson, James Scully, and Darin Zoccali examine the Risen Star (G2) and Rachel Alexandra (G2) at Fair Grounds, along with other stakes action around the country. Ashley and James provide their thoughts in the written portion below. Be sure to check out Darin's opinions in our on-camera portion as well!
Analysis
Meet the Contenders: 2024 Sunland Park Derby
Meet the horses running in the 2024 Sunland Park Derby at Sunland Park. For each horse, we're listing a pro, a con, and a rating of potential.
Analysis
Longstanding track biases must be considered in handicapping
Not every Thoroughbred racetrack is equally kind to all types of racehorses. For various reasons—the type and composition of the racing surface, the configuration of a specific course layout, etc.—some tracks are more or less kind to horses with certain running styles, or those breaking from particular post positions.
Analysis
Racing Roundtable: Sam F. Davis, Suncoast, and Las Virgenes insights
This week, the Racing Roundtable discusses Kentucky Derby and Oaks prep action at Tampa Bay Downs and Santa Anita, including No More Time's win in the Sam F. Davis (G3).
Analysis
Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: Winners in Florida and New York
Two-time Kentucky Derby (G1)-winning trainer Todd Pletcher continues to add to his roster of contenders for the 2024 Run for the Roses.
Features
Stakes histories can identify strong or vulnerable favorites
Not all stakes races are equally kind to favorites. Some regularly churn out short-priced winners, while others toss up longshots more often than not.
Analysis
Racing Roundtable: Fierceness upset in Holy Bull, other shocking Kentucky Derby prep results
This week, the Racing Roundtable examines a number of upset winners during a jam-packed weekend of Kentucky Derby and Oaks prep action, including Hades' victory in the Holy Bull (G3), where Fierceness finished a disappointing third as the 1-5 favorite.
Analysis
Catching My Eye: Front-running monster Pink Polkadots and three others from Fair Grounds Feb. 1 - 4
We have seen several impressive up-and-coming turf routers so far this meet. St. Armands Key and Ocean Victory come to mind quickly, but two others as well--Pink Polkadots and Le Gris.
Analysis
Pedigree profile: Nysos
After two blowout victories sprinting, it was no surprise to see Nysos dominate his two-turn debut, winning the one-mile Robert B. Lewis S. (G3) at Santa Anita by 7 1/2 lengths.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: Well-bred Tuscan Gold romps
Only time will tell if Tuscan Gold has the talent to win the Kentucky Derby (G1). But there’s no doubt the bay colt has the pedigree to shine on the first Saturday in May.
Features
Meet the Contenders: 2024 Robert B. Lewis Stakes
Meet the horses running in the 2024 Robert B. Lewis S. (G3) at Santa Anita. For each horse, we're listing a pro, a con, and a rating of potential. The star rating of 1 to 5 represents opportunity to perform well. Be sure to follow these contenders by adding them to your Stable Alerts.
Kentucky Derby
Meet the Contenders: 2024 Withers Stakes
Meet the horses running in the 2024 Withers S. (G3) at Aqueduct. For each horse, we're listing a pro, a con, and a rating of potential. The star rating of 1 to 5 represents opportunity to perform well. Be sure to follow these contenders by adding them to your Stable Alerts.
Kentucky Derby
When a meet starts, top trainers can win races in bunches
At the start of a race meet, it can be useful to look back at previous meets and find out which trainers won the most races. If one name consistently ranks at or near the top of the rankings, you can usually assume that trainer will enjoy success at the upcoming meet as well.
Analysis
Meet the Contenders: 2024 Southwest Stakes
Meet the horses running in the 2024 Southwest S. Saturday at Oaklawn Park.
Analysis
Racing Roundtable: Pegasus World Cup Day recap
This week, the Racing Roundtable reflects on Pegasus World Cup Day at Gulfstream, including National Treasure's win in the marquee race as well as Warm Heart and Francesco Clemente's turf scores.
Racing
Meet the Contenders: 2024 Holy Bull
Meet the horses running in the 2024 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park this Saturday.
Analysis
Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: Speak Easy is the talk of the town
One year after Kentucky Derby winner Mage won a Pegasus World Cup Day maiden race at Gulfstream Park, Speak Easy impressed in an identical maiden contest.
Features
2023 TwinSpires Best Bets and Quick Picks ROI report
With 2023 in the books, it’s time to recap the performance of my daily “Best Bets and Quick Plays” and carryover analysis columns for TwinSpires Edge.
Wagering
Nuanced trainer stats strike again with 9-1 winner
In the past, we’ve explored how digging into the granular details of trainer stats can reveal nuances not apparent at first glance. These nuances can lead to lucrative payoffs, as was apparent at Fair Grounds last week.
Analysis
Racing Roundtable: Risen Star, Saudi Cup, and Pegasus World Cup Day
This week, the Racing Roundtable examines the top contenders in February's Risen Star (G2) and Saudi Cup (G1) as well as this weekend's Pegasus World Cup Day at Gulfstream.
Analysis
Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: Hall of Fame is very fast
The equine Hall of Fame took a solid first step toward a place in the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame when he smashed a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight on Saturday at Fair Grounds.
Analysis
How class drops can trigger big form turnarounds
Bettors aren’t always keen to support young horses who have shown little to no ability. But sometimes these horses win.
Analysis
Racing Roundtable: Gin Gin's win in the Busanda, Book'em Danno's dominance, and Lecomte Day
This week, the Racing Roundtable discusses Gin Gin's win in the Busanda S. and Book'em Danno's dominance in the Pasco before looking ahead to Lecomte Day at Fair Grounds.
Analysis
Meet the Contenders: 2024 Lecomte Stakes
Meet the horses running in the 2024 Lecomte S. (G3) at Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans. For each horse, we're listing a pro, a con, and a rating of potential. The star rating of 1 to 5 represents opportunity to perform well. Be sure to follow these contenders by adding them to your Stable Alerts.
Analysis
Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: Pletcher saddles three winners
Two-time Kentucky Derby (G1)-winning trainer Todd Pletcher sent out a trio of possible 2024 Kentucky Derby contenders to break their maidens during the second week of January.
Features
Catching My Eye: Fair Grounds Top Performers Week of Jan. 4 - Jan. 7
Top honors this week go to Maycocks Bay. The Godolphin homebred trained by Mike Stidham put his name on the map in a big way beating home two quality colts trained by Brad Cox and Keith Desormeaux in Blown Cover and Hawkes Creek.
Analysis
Following a track bias to logical and lucrative payoffs
The power of track biases to deliver compelling pari-mutuel payoffs has been readily apparent over the last couple of weeks.
Analysis
Racing Roundtable: Drum Roll Please, Kopion shine in Derby, Oaks preps, and more
This week, the Racing Roundtable grades the win by Drum Roll Please in the Jerome S., a one-mile Kentucky Derby (G1) prep held at Aqueduct, Kopion's potential for Richard Mandella following her win in the Santa Ynez (G3), and then looks back at other notable performances from the weekend.
Analysis
Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: Ari’s Magic sparkles on debut
The first week of January produced a handful of noteworthy three-year-old maiden winners with possible Kentucky Derby (G1) aspirations.
Features
Catching My Eye: Fair Grounds winners who look ready for stakes company
The racing last week at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots was excellent, and a handful of winners look primed to try stakes company next out. Here’s who caught my eye.
Analysis
First-crop sires: Maximus Mischief ends 2023 in second place
The final racing results from 2023 are in, and Maximus Mischief ended the year as the second-leading first-crop sire in multiple categories.
Analysis
Tipsheet: 2024 Jerome Stakes
A compact field of five will travel one mile on the Aqueduct main surface in Saturday’s $150,000 Jerome S. A total of 21 qualifying points towards the 2024 Kentucky Derby are on the line in the challenge series tilt.
Analysis
Meet the Contenders: 2024 Jerome Stakes
Meet the horses running in the 2024 Jerome at Aqueduct. For each horse, we're listing a pro, a con, and a rating of potential. The star rating of 1 to 5 represents opportunity to perform well. Be sure to follow these contenders by adding them to your stable alerts.
Analysis
Ghostzapper shows first-crop sire rankings can be misleading
Ranking first-crop sires by progeny earnings is useful for identifying up-and-coming stallions with potential, but the numbers can be misleading.
Analysis
Racing Roundtable: Smarty Jones, Pegasus World Cup preview and more!
This week, the Racing Roundtable reviews the first Kentucky Derby qualifier of the New Year, Monday’s Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park, Pegasus World Cup preview day at Gulfstream Park, and betting resolutions for 2024.
Analysis
Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: Flashy winners close out 2023
During the closing days of 2023, a bevy of potential Kentucky Derby (G1) contenders posted flashy maiden victories from coast to coast.
Analysis
Catching My Eye: How the Gun Runner Pace Unfolded
In order to get a clear handle on what happened in the Gun Runner last Saturday at Fair Grounds, we need to keep in mind the old adage: it's not how fast they run but how they run fast.
Analysis
Hot jockey-trainer duos can generate lofty win percentages
When a hot trainer teams up with a hot jockey, their win percentage together can rise to impressive heights.
Analysis
Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: Cox colts shine at Fair Grounds
A pair of 1 1/16-mile maiden special weights contested at Fair Grounds on Saturday could have 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1) implications.
Features
Meet the Contenders: 2023 Gun Runner Stakes
Meet the horses running in the 2023 Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds. For each horse, we're listing a pro, a con, and a rating of potential.
Analysis
Catching My Eye: Week 5 at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots
With Road to the Derby Kickoff Day on Saturday, Dec. 23, and all the two-year-old/soon-to-be three frenzy about to take hold, let’s first take a look back at some strong efforts from week five at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots.
Analysis
Catch lucrative payoffs betting up-and-coming trainers
If you pay close attention to which trainers are rising to new heights percentage-wise, you can land enticing payoffs before the majority of bettors catch on.
Analysis
First-crop sires: Stakes horses shine for Maximus Mischief
With two weeks left in 2023, Maximus Mischief is holding his own among the year’s leading first-crop sires.
Features
Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: Winners from coast to coast
All around the country, promising 2-year-olds posted sharp maiden victories last week, throwing their names in the ring as potential 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1) contenders.
Features
Pedigree profile: Wynstock
Stretching out in distance has worked wonders for Wynstock. After failing to factor in his first two starts sprinting, the chestnut colt has been unstoppable in two-turn races, dominating a one-mile maiden special weight before battling to victory in the 1 1/16-mile Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) at Los Alamitos.
Analysis
The Springboard Mile Stakes Tipsheet
A very good group of nine two-year-old prospects will travel one mile on the Remington Park dirt in Friday’s $300,000 Springboard Mile S. The 2024 Road to the Kentucky Derby contest will give the top-five finishers qualifying points towards Churchill Downs on a 10-5-3-2-1 basis.
Analysis
How to bet With, and Against, Strong Quality in the Tinsel Stakes
A total of seven talented runners will take aim at the $200,000 Tinsel S. at Oaklawn Park on Saturday.
Racing
The Los Alamitos Futurity Tipsheet
A compact field of six will travel 1 1/16 miles in Saturday’s $200,000 Los Alamitos Futurity S. (G2). Conditioner Bob Baffert has half of the contenders in the 2024 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series event.
Analysis
Meet the Contenders: 2023 Los Alamitos Futurity
Meet the horses running in the 2023 Los Alamitos Futurity at Los Alamitos, CA.
Analysis
Meet the Contenders: 2023 Remington Springboard Mile
Meet the horses running in the 2023 Springboard Mile at Remington Park.
Analysis
Breeders’ Cup to ungraded stakes is a big class drop
The drop in class from a Breeders’ Cup race into an ungraded stakes can be monumental.
Analysis
Will new program boost international competition at Churchill, Epsom, and Ascot?
Fans of international horse racing have cause to celebrate. American horses have been competing abroad with increasing frequency over the last dozen years, and the trend may expand in 2024.
Analysis
Racing Roundtable: Oaklawn Park opening weekend, a look ahead to 2024, and more
This week, the Racing Roundtable looks back at Oaklawn Park's opening weekend plus other notable performances across the country and then looks ahead to horses to watch in 2024.
Analysis
Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: Speed Runner runs to his name
Two-time Kentucky Derby (G1)-winning trainer Todd Pletcher already conditions Fierceness, the early favorite for the 2024 Run for the Roses. But Pletcher’s contingent of possible Derby contenders keeps getting deeper.
Features
Catching My Eye: Big Weekend for Dallas Stewart/Dream Team Racing and James Graham
What a weekend for trainer Dallas Stewart and breeder/owner Dream Team Racing. Sure, Hoist the Gold won the Cigar Mile, earning a 106, his top Brisnet Speed figure to date, but how about the way his sister turned heads on Sunday at Fair Grounds?
Analysis
When juveniles finish slowly in sprints, be careful betting them in routes
How can you predict whether a lightly raced juvenile will thrive or struggle while tackling route distances of one mile or longer? Pedigrees, coupled with how fast they finish in sprints, can provide clues.
Analysis
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Dornoch
It’s safe to say that Dornoch has the pedigree of a Kentucky Derby (G1) winner. Because… he literally has the pedigree of a Kentucky Derby winner.
Features
Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: How talented is El Capi?
How talented is El Capi? It’s hard to say for certain. He was spectacular when debuting in a seven-furlong maiden special weight last Saturday at Aqueduct, but his performance was not without a caveat.
Analysis
Meet the Contenders: 2023 Remsen Stakes
Meet the horses running in the 2023 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct. For each horse, we're listing a pro, a con, and a rating of potential.
Analysis
First-crop sires: Winners keep coming for Maximus Mischief
Maximus Mischief picked up his third black-type stakes winner on Nov. 22 when Carmelina stormed to a runaway victory in the $100,000 Shamrock Rose S. at Penn National.
Features
Racing Roundtable: Kentucky Jockey Club, Golden Rod, and other Thanksgiving weekend results
This week the Roundtable discusses the winners of the Kentucky Derby and Oaks prep races at Churchill and other notable performances from the Thanksgiving weekend.
Analysis
Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: Five graduate at Churchill
Possible contenders for the 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1) were out in abundance during Thanksgiving week at Churchill Downs.
Analysis
Catching My Eye: Opening Weekend at Fair Grounds
As racing wraps up at Churchill Downs, many non-Kentucky connections will try to snag the purses and several of Fair Grounds’ stakes days are L.A.-bred delights.
Analysis
Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: Carbone finishes fast in debut
The week before Thanksgiving is typically a quiet one as far as stakes racing goes. But Carbone made enough noise for five stakes horses when he smashed his debut on Sunday at Churchill Downs.
Analysis
Racing Roundtable: Pool 1 of KDFW, first-crop sires, and top turf female
This week the Roundtable looks back at the results of Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW), explores first-crop sires with promising progeny, and debates the winner of the Eclipse Award for top turf female, potentially the most contentious award of the season.
Analysis
First-crop sires: Maximus Mischief is riding a hot streak
After siring only two winners between the middle of September and the middle of October, first-crop sire Maximus Mischief is on fire again, regaining the momentum that made him the leading sire by progeny earnings through much of summer and early fall.
Analysis
When a horse specifically targets a race, take notice
When handicapping high-profile graded stakes, it’s helpful to keep an eye on the racing news to determine which horses have been specifically pointed to the race and which are joining the field at the last minute.
Analysis
Racing Roundtable: Breeders' Cup recap and Horse of the Year candidates
This week the Roundtable discusses the best and most disappointing performances from the Breeders' Cup World Championships along with the Eclipse Award for Horse of the Year.
Breeders Cup
Catching My Eye: Three maidens and an old salt at Churchill Downs
Racing analyst Kevin Kilroy discusses a trio of maidens who caught his eye at Churchill Downs along with a five-year-old allowance winner.
Analysis
2023 Breeders' Cup trainer and jockey trends
The 40th Breeders' Cup World Championships will return to Santa Anita for a record-extending 11th time in the history of the event, where a number of legendary trainers and jockeys will look to further their mark on the prestigious two-day festival.
Racing
The 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic Tipsheet
A top-notch field of 13 will travel 1 1/4 miles on the Santa Anita main oval in Saturday’s lucrative, $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic S. (G1).
Analysis
2023 Breeders' Cup Betting Guide
The 2023 Breeders' Cup guide is here! The full betting guide includes Tipsheets, Expert Picks, fresh analysis, trends, and handicapping. It's your ultimate tool to prepare for the races and is available for free!
Breeders Cup
2023 Breeders' Cup post draw analysis and implications
Post positions for the 2023 Breeders’ Cup were drawn on Monday evening, finalizing the fields for the 14 championship races across Friday and Saturday at Santa Anita.
Breeders Cup
Breeders’ Cup Trends: Dirt Races
The Breeders’ Cup World Championships is nearly upon us, as The Great Race Place will play host to an incredible two days of racing on Nov. 3 and 4. There have been five editions held at Santa Anita dating back to 2012, and the picturesque venue is one of the best locations to host the Championships, in my opinion. Below are a few things to consider when handicapping the dirt races over the weekend.
Analysis
How much of a connection does the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies have to the Kentucky Oaks?
Dating back to the inaugural running of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies in 1984, just two horses have returned off victories in the race for two-year-old females to win the Kentucky Oaks the following season.
Analysis
Catching My Eye: Closing Day at Keeneland
That’s a wrap on Keeneland’s fall meet, as Kentucky racing moves back to its homebase of Churchill Downs, where they’ll be through Nov. 26.
Analysis
2023 Breeders' Cup: 10 observations from pre-entries
Pre-entries for the Breeders’ Cup races at Santa Anita were released on Wednesday. From all appearances, the 14 races are coming up strong.
Analysis
When turf turns soft, look for longshot speed horses
When heavy rain strikes and a turf course becomes soft, consider upgrading the chances of frontrunners and speed horses. It can reap lucrative dividends.
Analysis
Racing Roundtable: British Champions Day, Breeders' Cup memories, and the best of U.S. racing
This week the Roundtable reflects on British Champions Day at Ascot, the top performances in the U.S. from the weekend, and past memories of the Breeders' Cup.
Analysis
The Science of Horse Racing: When Is Pedigree Useful?
Understanding the influence of sire and dam and the right time to consider pedigree can make that information a useful part of your handicapping routine and give you more data to help you decide where to put your wagering dollar.
Education
Keeler Johnson's 2023 Picks and Plays third quarter ROI report
With three quarters down and one quarter remaining in 2023, it’s time to check in on the performance of my daily Picks and Plays and carryover analysis columns for TwinSpires Edge.
Wagering
Catching My Eye: Mighty Hearts and Raw Talent at Keeneland
A fantastic card at Keeneland on Saturday was punctuated time and again by a triumphant favorite, winning each of the final six races, including the sensational $600,000 Queen Elizabeth II Cup (G1). The raw talent of freshman Dornoch and the gallant heart of both Lindy and First Mission were on full display.
Analysis
Dubai World Cup winners in Breeders’ Cup Classic: Close, but no cigar
The relationship between the Dubai World Cup (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) was forged early on, with a pattern set by Hall of Famer Cigar.
Analysis
First-crop sires: Second stakes winner for Maximus Mischief
TwinSpires.com will follow prominent first-crop sires whose two-year-olds are hitting the track this season. This installment is the third on 2018 Remsen (G2) winner Maximus Mischief.
Features
Breeders' Cup Rankings 2023: Future Stars Friday
A handful of races will be held on the opening-day portion of the Breeders’ Cup World Thoroughbred Championships at Santa Anita on Nov. 3. European imports have endured a bevy of success in these tilts, especially in the events that have been contested on the turf, but my focus for this piece will be on the U.S.-based contenders.
Analysis
Pedigree profile: Muth
When the speedy Muth successfully stretched out over 1 1/16 miles to dominate the American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita by 3 3/4 lengths, it came as no surprise to pedigree handicappers.
Analysis
When chalky outcomes appears likely, consider the superfecta
Some bettors avoid playing races that seem likely to unfold in predictable fashion, because the payoffs are bound to be small. But sometimes the most likely outcome can pay surprisingly well, particularly if you embrace exotic wagers like the superfecta.
Analysis
Catching My Eye: Keeneland Breeders' Cup preps from Saturday, Oct. 7
On Saturday, Keeneland had two "Win and You’re In” events, but connections used each of the five graded stakes as prep races for the first weekend in November.
Breeders Cup
Tournament Strategy: TwinSpires $2,500 NHC Qualifier Feeders Oct. 7 and 8
TwinSpires has a new handicapping tournament, the TwinSpires $5,000 NHC Qualifier, offering two seats to the National Horseplayers Championship, which will take place Nov. 25. In order to participate, you have to finish in the top 10% of one of the seven feeder tournaments, and there are two taking place this weekend. If you have a TwinSpires account, opt in to play on Oct. 7 or Oct. 8, 2023.
Wagering
The Jury: Expert picks, bets and fades for Oct. 7, 2023 [VIDEO]
Racing analysts Ashley Anderson, James Scully and Scott Shapiro handicap Keeneland opening weekend and more! We have promo codes exclusively for our Jury viewers later into the show.
Analysis
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