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When it comes to trainer stats, nuance matters
Trainer stats are among the most valuable tools horseplayers have at their disposal. But a trainer’s overall win percentage is only one part of the story.
Education
Keeler Johnson's Top 5 contenders to watch for the 2023 Kentucky Derby
Less than two weeks out from the 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1), here’s where I’m leaning with my top five Derby contenders.
Kentucky Derby
Racing Roundtable: Red Route One and Oaklawn Handicap
James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson discuss Red Route One's Preakness hopes, the Oaklawn H. (G2), and what else caught their eye in this week's Racing Roundtable.
Analysis
Disarm – Kentucky Derby Context
Disarm has the look of an up-and-comer, a promising colt starting to figure things out following placings in his first two stakes appearances, and he will need to take a significant step forward to challenge in the Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby
Lord Miles – Kentucky Derby Context
Lord Miles will look to back up a game win in the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct, outfinishing a pair of fancied rivals to record a nose upset at 59-1
Kentucky Derby
Confidence Game – Kentucky Derby Context
After leading all the way in his first two wins, Confidence Game showed his versatility winning the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park in late February, rating just off the pace in fifth along the backstretch before commencing his rally on the far turn
Kentucky Derby
Verifying – Kentucky Derby Context
Verifying exits a commendable second in the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland, missing by a neck to Tapit Trice, and his speed adds to the appeal
Kentucky Derby
Hit Show – Kentucky Derby Context
A stalker, Hit Show has raced within striking range in all three wins, including a sharp 5 1/2-length score in February’s Withers (G3) at Aqueduct two starts back, and he’ll seek to rebound after coming up a nose short as the favorite from just off the pace in the Wood Memorial (G2)
Kentucky Derby
Horses on the bubble for the 2023 Kentucky Derby
There remains a handful of horses on the outside looking in at trying to make the field of 20, including several prominent Southern California representatives.
Kentucky Derby
Ranking the final 2023 Road to the Kentucky Derby preps
There were eight races in advance of the 2023 Kentucky Derby in which the winning horse received 100 qualifying points. It is usually from this group that we find the eventual Derby winner.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Mandarin Hero
Does Mandarin Hero have the breeding to shine racing 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby?
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Cyclone Mischief
Can Cyclone Mischief become the third son of Into Mischief to win the Kentucky Derby (G1)?
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Skinner
If Skinner's pedigree is any indication, racing 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby (G1) may bring about a career-best performance from the bay colt.
Kentucky Derby
Betting Strategy: Using the Power Box at Keeneland April 22
When I have clear groupings for the horses I want to use, but I believe the finishing order will be a cross section of these multiple groupings, I use a Power Box.
Wagering
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Disarm
The cross of Gun Runner with Tapit mares has already produced several high-level racehorses, including 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1) contender Disarm.
Kentucky Derby
Forte – Kentucky Derby Context
The Kentucky Derby favorite, Forte will bring a five-race win streak to the Kentucky Derby.
Racing
When three-year-olds face older horses, the class level matters
Traditional handicapping guidance explains that three-year-old Thoroughbreds are rarely ready to challenge older horses before autumn. But the equation can change at lower class levels.
Racing
Two Phil's – Kentucky Derby Context
A midpack stalker, Two Phil’s switched to Turfway Park’s synthetic Tapeta track for his final prep, rolling to a 5 1/4-length win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) in late March
Kentucky Derby
Practical Move – Kentucky Derby Context
The top-ranked contender out west, Practical Move will enter the Kentucky Derby on a three-race win streak, recording convincing triumphs in the San Felipe (G2) and Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) before courageously holding for a nose score in the Santa Anita Derby (G1)
Kentucky Derby
Kingsbarns – Kentucky Derby Context
Projected to show speed, Kingbarns rates as a pacesetting candidate after leading from gate to wire in the Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds
Kentucky Derby
Rocket Can – Kentucky Derby Context
A projected stalker, Rocket Can will seek to establish up-close positioning in the Kentucky Derby.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Sun Thunder
By picking up Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying points in a quartet of prep races, Sun Thunder earned his ticket to the 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1).
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Verifying
There are many well-bred horses slated to start in the 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1), but few—if any—can boast as blueblood a pedigree as Blue Grass (G1) runner-up Verifying.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: First Mission
The Road to the Kentucky Derby wrapped up with the 1 1/16-mile Lexington (G3) at Keeneland, in which the beautifully bred First Mission battled up the inside to score a tenacious victory.
Triple Crown
Catching My Eye: Keeneland racing Sunday, April 16
I’ve been enjoying this Keeneland meet: the fields, the performances, and the payouts have all been strong.
Analysis
Racing Roundtable: Lexington Stakes and Grade 1 older stars
James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson touch on the final Road to the Kentucky Derby prep and some Grade 1 performances from the older set in this week's Racing Roundtable.
Analysis
The impact of the new Road to the Kentucky Derby points system
Four consistent horses that in previous years would not have made the Kentucky Derby field are set to make it this year under the new points system that rewards those which run more often in prep races.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby Report – Thrilling conclusion to major qualifiers
The Blue Grass (G1), Santa Anita Derby (G1), and Wood Memorial (G2) concluded the eight major qualifiers in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series, each race awarding points on a 100-40-30-20-10 basis to the top five finishers, and a 20-horse field has taken shape for Churchill Downs on May 6.
Kentucky Derby
Jason Beem's Thursday Column for Apr. 13, 2023
Jason follows up on a discussion from his podcast about the "all-button".
Analysis
Meet the Contenders: 2023 Lexington Stakes
Meet the horses running in the 2023 Lexington (G3) over 1 1/16 miles at Keeneland. For each horse, we're listing a pro, a con, and a rating of potential.
Racing
Should you bet or dismiss a horse off a bad race?
It happens all the time. A horse enters a race off a poor performance in its previous start, leaving bettors to wonder—will the horse rebound, or run badly again?
Education
Racing Roundtable: Developments on the road to the Kentucky Derby and Oaks
James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson discuss developments on the final major weekend of Kentucky Derby (G1) and Kentucky Oaks (G1) preps in this edition of the Racing Roundtable.
Analysis
Catching My Eye: Keeneland Opening Day
Horses that caught my eye on the opening day of the Keeneland 2023 spring meeting.
Features
Kentucky Derby International Scouting Report: Derma Sotogake
Derma Sotogake rates as Japan’s leading Kentucky Derby (G1) contender after his front-running coup on Dubai World Cup night.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby International Scouting Report: Continuar
Having lost all three match-ups with leading Japanese contender Derma Sotogake, is there a case for Continuar to turn the tables in the Kentucky Derby (G1)?
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Lord Miles
Few bettors expected Lord Miles to win the Wood Memorial (G2), but the pace-tracking colt defied expectations to prevail by a nose at 59-1, stamping his ticket to the 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1).
Kentucky Derby
Ashland Stakes: Betting with, and against, Wonder Wheel
After a surprise defeat for Wonder Wheel on her three-year-old debut, it’s entirely reasonable to look elsewhere in the Ashland for a winner.
Wagering
Exotics plays for the 2023 Transylvania Stakes
If the morning line odds are anything to go by, the one to beat in the Transylvania is a maiden winner untested in stakes company.
Wagering
Santa Anita Derby International Scouting Report: Mandarin Hero
After two Japanese horses are already in the Kentucky Derby (G1) – Derma Sotogake by romping in the UAE Derby (G2) and Continuar accepting the Japan Road invitation – Mandarin Hero tries to make it three in Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby (G1).
Kentucky Derby
Meet the Contenders: 2023 Blue Grass Stakes
Meet the horses running in the 2023 Blue Grass (G1) over 1 1/8 miles at Keeneland. For each horse, we're listing a pro, a con, and a rating of potential.
Racing
Meet the Contenders: 2023 Wood Memorial
Meet the horses running in the 2023 Wood Memorial (G2) over 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct on April 8. For each horse, we're listing a pro, a con, and a rating of potential.
Racing
Racing Roundtable: Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby
James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson discuss the two major Kentucky Derby (G1) preps of the past week and also a little Kentucky Oaks (G1) talk in this edition of the Racing Roundtable.
Features
How and when to bet a Power Box
Boxing bets. There have always been pros and cons to this catch-all strategy. If only there were a way to box bets in a more nuanced manner. Well guess what? That’s what a Power Box is for.
Racing
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Forever Young
A powerful seven-length victory in Japan’s Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun at Kawasaki Racecourse stamped Forever Young as a formidable 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1) contender, a status he confirmed with globetrotting victories in the Saudi Derby (G3) and UAE Derby (G2).
Features
Kentucky Derby Report – Speed rules in Louisiana, Japanese trio added to mix
Three of the eight major qualifiers in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series are in the books, and large fields are set for the $1.25 Arkansas Derby (G1) and $1 million Florida Derby (G1) this Saturday.
Kentucky Derby
What is the Place Pick All, and how do you bet it?
Once in a while you’ll see a racetrack offer a less common type of wager. One example is the “Place Pick All”.
Education
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Continuar
A victory in the Cattleya S. and a third-place finish in the UAE Derby (G2) earned Continuar enough Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby qualification points to secure a berth in the 2023 Kentucky Derby.
Kentucky Derby
Catching My Eye: Louisiana Derby Day at Fair Grounds
Kingsbarns won the Louisiana Derby but does he have a shot in the Kentucky Derby (G1)?
Analysis
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Wild On Ice
An upset victory in the Sunland Park Derby (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby propelled Wild On Ice into the spotlight. But does he have the pedigree to handle the Derby's 1 1/4-mile distance?
Kentucky Derby
Racing Roundtable: Derby and Oaks prep review and Dubai World Cup
James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson review the leading events of the past weekend from Dubai, New Orleans, Kentucky, and elsewhere in this week's Racing Roundtable.
Analysis
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Two Phil's
Although Two Phil’s has shown talent on dirt, he elevated his game to a new level when tackling a synthetic Tapeta track in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park.
Racing
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Kingsbarns
A gate-to-wire victory in the Louisiana Derby has launched Kingsbarns into the Kentucky Derby picture, and his pedigree suggests he’s well-suited to racing 1 1/4 miles on the first Saturday in May.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Derma Sotogake
It isn’t surprising to see UAE Derby winner Derma Sotogake display both speed and stamina.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: Asmussen duo shine
Six weeks out from the 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1), a handful of up-and-coming three-year-olds delivered sharp performances to break their maidens.
Kentucky Derby
Handicappers Debate: 2023 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park
This week’s debate features a major qualifier in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series, as handicappers James Scully and John Mucciolo offer differing opinions on Saturday’s $700,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby Report: Fields sets for opening round of major qualifiers
The spotlight shines on Kentucky Derby contenders over the next three weeks as the final round of prep races get underway.
Kentucky Derby
Meet the Contenders: 2023 Jeff Ruby Steaks
Meet the horses running in the 2023 Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) over 1 1/8 miles on Tapeta at Turfway Park. For each horse, we're listing a pro, a con, and a rating of potential.
Kentucky Derby
2023 Dubai World Cup: Top 10 storylines
From the $12 million Dubai World Cup (G1), to exceptional turf races, contentious dirt events, and a Kentucky Derby (G1) berth on the line in the UAE Derby (G2), Saturday’s extravaganza at Meydan offers a spectacle on a truly global scale.
International
Meet the Contenders: 2023 Louisiana Derby
Meet the horses running in the 2023 Louisiana Derby over 1 3/16 miles on dirt at Fair Grounds in Louisiana.
Kentucky Derby
Meet the Contenders: 2023 UAE Derby
Meet the horses running in the 2023 UAE Derby (G2) over 1,900 meters (about 1 3/16 miles) at Meydan in Dubai. For each horse, we're listing a pro, a con, and a rating of potential.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: First Mission, Promise Me a Ride impress for Cox
The 2022-23 Road to the Kentucky Derby has been productive for trainer Brad Cox.
Kentucky Derby
Keeler Johnson's picks and plays March 20
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, March 20 at Mahoning Valley, Turf Paradise, and Will Rogers Downs, including a trio of exactas.
Wagering
Catching My Eye: Cashing on Hot Barns
With two weeks to go at Fair Grounds, there is a new leading trainer as Ron Faucheux won his 33rd race of the meet on Sunday, March 12.
Analysis
Betting Strategy: Vertical structure for speed bias with longshot runners
On Thursday, March 9 at Fair Grounds, a speed bias was evident. And in Race 7, with longshot horses peppering the lineup of nine runners, it was a great opportunity to take a swing.
Analysis
What is a key race, and how do you identify one?
Have you ever heard of a “key race?” A key race is a race from which a large number of participants return to win or run well the next time they compete.
Racing
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Tapit Trice
Victories in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and Blue Grass (G1) vaulted Tapit Trice into the Kentucky Derby picture.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: I Don't Get It, Major Blue prevail for Derby-winning trainers
You might assume that any horse competing against maiden special weight company in March is too far behind to qualify to the Kentucky Derby (G1) field. But that isn’t always the case.
Kentucky Derby
Dubai World Cup clues from Super Saturday, Saudi Cup
The “Super Saturday” results from March 4 at Meydan offer clues of varying degrees for the March 25 Dubai World Cup (G1) gala.
International
Instant Coffee winning the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs (Photo by Coady Photography)
Kentucky Derby Future Wager 2023: Betting Strategies for Pool 5
Historically, the March Kentucky Derby Future Wagers are about when you can start to expect the eventual Derby winner to be a named individual option.
Kentucky Derby
Exotics plays for the 2023 Azeri Stakes at Oaklawn
Multiple graded stakes-winning mare Clairiere and 2022 Kentucky Oaks (G1) hero Secret Oath headline the $350,000 Azeri Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn on Saturday.
Wagering
Kentucky Derby Report: Stylish return performance for the champ
Champion juvenile male Forte came back impressively in the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park, one of four Road to the Kentucky Derby series qualifiers offered on March 4, and the Todd Pletcher-trained colt will make his final prep in the $1 million Florida Derby (G1) on April 1.
Kentucky Derby
Cheltenham Festival: Questions to ponder for 2023
Here are some posers to watch for as the Cheltenham Festival unfolds.
International
When to bet (or not bet) the trifecta
The trifecta often seems like the perfect exotic wager. But some situations are more suitable for trifecta betting than others.
Education
Catching My Eye: Emerging 3-year-olds and turf stakes at Fair Grounds
Racing analyst Kevin Kilroy examines up-and-coming three-year-olds and a couple of turf stakes that caught his eye at Fair Grounds during the first weekend of March.
Analysis
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Raise Cain
Violence picked up another possible Kentucky Derby (G1) contender when his son Raise Cain unleashed a giant rally from behind a fast pace to dominate Aqueduct’s Gotham (G3).
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Congruent
Don’t assume John Battaglia Memorial S. winner Congruent is a synthetic specialist; to the contrary, he’s a versatile young runner capable of performing well over any surface.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: Bo Cruz, Squire Creek romp at Fair Grounds
With only two months remaining until the Kentucky Derby, you might assume the weekly roster of impressive three-year-old maiden winners has been reduced to a trickle. But that’s simply not the case.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Practical Move
Practical Move joined the Road to the Kentucky Derby with an upset victory in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) at Los Alamitos, but does he have the pedigree to thrive in the Kentucky Derby (G1)?
Kentucky Derby
Meet the Contenders: 2023 John Battaglia Memorial Stakes
Meet the horses running in the 2023 John Battaglia Memorial S. over 1 1/16 miles on Tapeta at Turfway Park. For each horse, we're listing a pro, a con, and a rating of potential.
Racing
Meet the Contenders: 2023 Gotham Stakes
Meet the horses running in the 2023 Gotham S. (G3) over one mile at Aqueduct. For each horse, we're listing a pro, a con, and a rating of potential.
Racing
Kentucky Derby Report: Rebel upset precedes flurry of early March preps
March opens with a bang for Kentucky Derby contenders, as four qualifiers in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series will be held on March 4
Kentucky Derby
Catching My Eye: Fair Grounds Feb. 25-26
Racing analyst Kevin Kilroy discusses a group of three-year-olds who caught his attention at Fair Grounds during the final weekend of February.
Features
When you should (or shouldn't) bet a Pick 6
Effectively betting a Pick 6 can be difficult and expensive. These guidelines help you determine when you should (or shouldn’t) bet a Pick 6.
Education
Racing Roundtable: Rebel, Honeybee, and Saudi Cup
James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson devote this week's Racing Roundtable to recapping Rebel Day at Oaklawn Park and the events of the Saudi Cup program from last Saturday.
Features
Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: Triple Crown nominee Summer Cause breaks through
The Kentucky Derby (G1) is barely more than two months away, but Triple Crown nominees are still busy breaking their maidens and emerging as possible Run for the Roses contenders.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Confidence Game
A well-timed rally from midfield carried Confidence Game to victory in the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park, stamping the improving colt as a viable contender for the 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1).
Kentucky Derby
Potential value plays and longshots for 2023 Saudi Cup Day
While the $20 million Saudi Cup (G1) gets the lion’s share of attention, the five Thoroughbred stakes on the undercard likewise offer top-class competition with a global flair — and accordingly attractive betting opportunities.
International
Catching My Eye: Louisiana Derby Preview Day Round-up
As the Roads to the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Kentucky Oaks (G1) carry on and older divisions begin to take shape, here’s a round-up of Kevin Kilroy's takeaways.
Analysis
Meet The Contenders: 2023 Rebel Stakes
Meet the horses running in the 2023 Rebel Stakes, plus a pro, con and rating of their potential.
Analysis
Kentucky Derby Report: Late runners step up in Risen Star
Angel of Empire and Sun Thunder jumped into the Kentucky Derby picture with a 1-2 finish in Saturday’s Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds, rallying from far back in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series qualifier.
Kentucky Derby
Why it pays to look beyond a horse's most recent race
Horses aren’t machines, and any number of events can trigger a poor performance. Knowing when to forgive a subpar result is often the key to cashing tickets.
Education
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Angel of Empire
Stretch-running victories in the Risen Star (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1) have propelled Angel of Empire into the 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1) picture. But does he have the pedigree to succeed in the Run for the Roses?
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: Bishops Bay, Heroic Move impress for Cox
Winning the Kentucky Derby (much less the Triple Crown) off a February debut isn’t easy, but Bishops Bay may have the talent to take a shot.
Kentucky Derby
Catching My Eye: Morning Breezes Ahead of Louisiana Derby Preview Day
As the three-year-old campaigns build momentum and with Louisiana Derby Preview Day on Saturday, the morning workouts at Fair Grounds have been heating up.
Kentucky Derby
How to bet the 2023 Fair Grounds Stakes
A competitive field of eight will travel about 1 1/8 miles on the lawn in Saturday’s $150,000 Fair Grounds S.
Racing
Derby Report – Stakes debuters continue to strike in Davis, Withers; Risen Star gets big field
Hit Show and Litigate became the latest first-time stakes performers to win a qualifier, jumping on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with respective wins in the Withers (G3) and Sam F. Davis (G3) on Feb. 11.
Racing
G1-to-maiden class drop can be surprisingly lucrative
One of the most extreme examples of "dropping in class" occurs when a horse exits a Grade 1 race (the highest class there is) and enters a maiden race (restricted to horses who have never won a race).
Education
Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Litigate
When Litigate rallied to a determined victory in the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs, it was confirmation the bay colt has been waiting for a chance to shine running long.
Kentucky Derby