Aqueduct: Stakes picks for the Artie Schiller and Winter Memories

Picks and plays on a $50 budget for the weekend stakes races at Aqueduct.

Saturday, Race 9: Artie Schiller S. (3:47 p.m. ET)

This 1-mile grass event appears wide open on paper, so I’m willing to take a shot with #9 Valid Point (6-1).

A late-charging winner of the 2019 Secretariat (G1) over a mile at Arlington Park, Valid Point hasn’t finished better than eighth in three runs this season, but there have been extenuating circumstances.

One effort came on dirt, and the others came against significantly tougher competition than he’ll face Saturday.

Trained by Chad Brown, Valid Point will pick up hot jockey Jose Ortiz for the Artie Schiller. Together, Brown and Ortiz have won at a 32% rate over the last 60 days.

If Valid Point improves at all in his return to turf, he can surprise at a nice price.

$10 to win on #9 Valid Point
$10 to place on #9 Valid Point

Sunday, Race 9: Winter Memories S. (3:47 p.m. ET)

There is rain in the forecast for Sunday, which could have an impact on this 1 1/16-mile turf test for 3-year-old fillies.

If the course comes up wet, we must respect the chances of #3 Vigilantes Way, who handled yielding ground just fine when she rallied fast to finish second in the 1-mile Hilltop S. at Pimlico. The winner, Evil Lyn, came right back to claim a Churchill Downs allowance, while third-place finisher Caravel won the Malvern Rose S. in her next start.

Three starts back, Vigilantes Way trounced future Zagora S. winner Luck Money by 5 1/2 lengths in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race at Colonial Downs, so the class of this Shug McGaughey-trained filly is apparent.

Where things get tricky is if so much rain falls that the Winter Memories S. is taken off the turf and run on the main track.

Such a switch wouldn’t necessarily bother Vigilantes Way, who romped by 10 lengths in an off-the-turf allowance at Laurel Park two months ago. But it would make her task more challenging, since it would allow main track-only entrant #8 Thankful to compete.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Thankful has two wins from three starts on dirt and enters the Winter Memories fresh off a gutsy allowance victory at Belmont Park. The daughter of American Pharoah won by a head over next-out winner Mrs. Danvers and her 99 Brisnet Speed rating clearly tops the Winter Memories field.

If the race stays on the turf, we’ll bet Vigilantes Way to win and call it a day. Otherwise, we’ll box her in the exacta with Thankful.

If the Winter Memories stays on the turf…
$30 to win on #3 Vigilantes Way

If the Winter Memories is transferred to the main track…
$15 exacta box: 3,8 ($30)

Good luck!