Breeders’ Cup Classic Brisnet Speed Rating Report

Eleven are set for the $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at Del Mar on Nov. 1, and probable favorite Sovereignty owns the top last-out Brisnet Speed rating, netting a 112 for his 10-length win in the Travers (G1) on Aug. 23. 

Posts will be drawn on Tuesday. Locked, cross-entered to the Dirt Mile (G1) and Classic, will not run due to illness.

Since 2017, Classic winners earned an average figure of 108.5 in their final prep. The 2022 winner, Flightline (117), registered the top number, and Knicks Go (102) received the lowest a year earlier.

Four entrants earned at least a 108 Speed rating in their final prep (Speed ratings not available for classy Japanese raider Forever Young, who made his last three starts internationally): Sovereignty, Fierceness (111), Antiquarian (108), and Journalism (108). And Sierra Leone (107) and Baeza (106) fit the profile of previous Classic winners with big last-out numbers.

The 2025 Classic features talented horses, with the top three finishers from last year back to face a deep group of new challengers, and the 1 1/4-mile race promises to be exciting.

Analysis

Let’s preview the Classic field, ranked by top last-out Brisnet Speed rating (three most recent numbers included).

Sovereignty (112/105/111): A winner of four straight, the powerhouse colt has netted Brisnet Late Pace numbers of 117 and 111 in recent starts as well as top-class Speed ratings. Showed versatility racing closer to the pace in recent wins, and Sovereignty rallied from 16th to win the hot-paced Kentucky Derby (G1) convincingly. Three-year-olds have won the Classic 14 times in the race’s 40-year history.

Fierceness (111/100/95): Chased hot pace (:22.53, :44.96, and 1:09.44) before finishing a commendable second in last year’s Classic, and the four-year-old showed his affinity for Del Mar when returning in late August, rallying to win the Pacific Classic (G1) by 3 1/4 lengths in a fast time. Given the speed entered and adaptability displayed last time, Fierceness may be in a position to get first run on his main rivals.

Antiquarian (108/107/102): Looking for an upset candidate? Antiquarian fits the bill with his rising numbers, which stamp him worthy of consideration for any vertical exotics like trifectas or superfectas. After a runner-up in the Suburban (G2), the early/presser rallied to notch his first Grade 1 tally last out, taking the 1 1/4-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) by 1 1/4 lengths. Four-year-old is flying under the radar and improving.

Journalism (108/105/108): Sandwiched a Preakness (G1) victory inside runner-up finishes to Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont (G1), and Journalism receives a jockey switch to Jose Ortiz after closing from last for second in the Pacific Classic. A three-time Grade 1 winner this season, the classy three-year-old may be more tactical this time, seeking to make a serious impact in the stretch. 

Sierra Leone (107/107/103): After finishing second or third in four consecutive races, Sierra Leone put it all together in the 2024 Classic, boldly closing from well off the pace to triumph by 1 1/2 lengths. Consistency is not his staple, winning two of the last nine outings, but the four-year-old returns off a pair of encouraging performances, winning the Whitney (G1) and finishing a troubled second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. And he projects to receive another favorable setup at Del Mar.

Baeza (106/104/104): Just notched his second career win, smartly capturing the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) by open lengths, and his increasing Speed and Late Pace numbers stamp the three-year-old colt as a very promising individual moving forward. The Classic will be his first test against elders and represents a tall challenge, but Baeza has something going for him and merits, at the very least, a look for the vertical exotics based upon numbers.

Mindframe (NA/104/100): Lost rider in the Jockey Club Gold Cup after being knocked sideways, and Mindframe ranked based on penultimate prep, a one-length score in the Stephen Foster (G1) in late June. Along with lower numbers and no wins beyond nine furlongs, Mindframe appears too light on racing experience despite recording published workouts every month this year.

Nevada Beach (104/97/99): Has won three of four since making debut in April, recording his first Grade 1 victory in the recent Goodwood, but Classic may prove too much too soon for up-and-coming colt. Look at his connections: Bob Baffert owns a record four Classic wins, and Mike Smith will seek to join Chris McCarron and Jerry Bailey with a record five wins.

Contrary Thinking (95/31/97): Entered strictly as a pacesetter for stablemate Sierra Leone, no realistic chance to challenge for even a minor award given his slower form.

Forever Young (NA): Did not experience a clean trip from the innermost post in last year’s Classic, registering a 111 Speed rating for his troubled third, and Forever Young has raced thrice since. A commendable winner of the Saudi Cup (G1) earlier this year, the four-year-old returned from a six-month layoff with a well-regarded tune-up in early October, rolling to a convincing Japanese stakes win; dismiss the top three contender at your own risk.