2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic: Betting With, and Against, Fierceness

The defection of 6-5 morning line favorite Sovereignty due to a fever takes some luster away from the $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), but a strong field remains for the 1 1/4-mile event at Del Mar. And favoritism likely will now go to #1 Fierceness, who registered the top last-out Brisnet Speed rating (111), romping by 3 1/4 lengths in the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar in late August,

Runner-up as the 5-2 favorite in last year’s Classic, Fierceness chased hot early fractions (:22.43, :44.96, and 1:09.44) before giving way to Sierra Leone in the stretch. The early pace is eligible to be more moderate in this year’s Classic, but Fierceness will still need to work out a trip from the innermost post.

Whether showing the way or up close, Fierceness projects to be forward during the opening stages. He displayed the ability to overcome adversity in the Pacific Classic, recovering from a poor start to patiently stalk behind horses before surging to a clear lead on the far turn, and his affinity for Del Mar and formidable numbers are a potent combination.

Whether backing Fierceness or taking him on in the wagering, let’s examine the case for both sides in the Classic.

With Fierceness – Wagers

$10 Exacta: 1 with 2,5,7,9,10 ($50)
$5 Trifecta: 1 with 5,10 with 2,5,7,9,10 ($40)

Against Fierceness – Wagers

$5 Exacta: 5,10 with 1,2,5,7,9,10 ($50)
$2 Trifecta: 5,10 with 2,5,10 with 1,2,5,7,9,10 ($32)

With Fierceness Analysis

A convincing winner of the 2022 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), Fierceness has peaked during the second half of the season the last two years and appears primed for another top performance Saturday.

I will key #5 Forever Young, who finished a troubled third from the rail post in last year’s Classic and tuned up nicely overseas for a return engagement by recording a convincing win in early October, and Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) winner #10 Antiquarian in second for the trifecta.

Antiquarian has thrived since stretching to 1 1/4 miles two back, registering improved numbers, and I envision a favorable up-close stalking trip from the outside.

#2 Baeza, #7 Sierra Leone, and #9 Journalism will be included underneath in exactas and used on the bottom spot of the trifecta. 

Against Fierceness Analysis

Forever Young and Antiquarian will be my key horses, utilizing the same runners mentioned above in vertical exotics.

Good luck betting the Breeders’ Cup Classic!