Betting the 2025 Breeders' Cup All-Turf Pick 4

One of the more fascinating betting opportunities on Breeders' Cup Saturday is the 50-cent all-turf Pick 4, encompassing the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1), Breeders' Cup Turf (G1), Mile (G1), and Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1). What makes it appealing is that there are opportunities (if you dare) to fade some of the early favorites in several legs, thus boosting the potential payoff if any negative assessments prove correct.

Here's how I'll be playing the wager:

Breeders' Cup Saturday All-Turf Pick 4 Wager

• 50-cent ticket: 1,2,3 with 1,2 with 3,5,7 with 5,6,12 ($27)

Race 5: Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1), 3:41 p.m. ET

They'll have to work out trips from inside draws, but I prefer the two horses-for-the-course, 2024 Turf Sprint runner-up #1 Motorious (7-2) and #2 Reef Runner (6-1). Motorious has an impeccable local mark, while Reef Runner is in career-best form for trainer David Fawkes.

I'll also throw in #3 Arizona Blaze (5-1), arguably the best of the European invaders who ran credibly over this course last season in the Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1) when finishing second by a half-length.

Race 8: Breeders' Cup Turf (G1), 5:41 p.m. ET

This renewal is being billed as a showdown between the outstanding three-year-old filly Minnie Hauk and two-time Turf winner #1 Rebel's Romance (5-2). However, from a ticket structure standpoint, it makes sense to take a stand between the two rather than include both at short prices. Given his experience over this course, and the fact that this seems more like a consolation destination for Minnie Hauk after her narrow loss in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1), I'll side with Rebel's Romance.

That said, I wouldn't sleep on #2 Goliath (8-1). At his best, he could hang with both main players. His form since taking the 2024 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth (G1) has been uneven, but recall that Ascot win came at the expense of 2024 Arc winner Bluestocking and Rebel's Romance (the latter by more than five lengths).

Race 10: Breeders' Cup Mile (G1), 7:05 p.m. ET

Given the older miler division in Europe was a bit of a mess this year, and that he wasn't facing much in the Woodbine Mile (G1), I'm willing to fade the mild early favorite Notable Speech in this spot. Local hope #7 Johannes (8-1) out-finished that one in last year's Mile and got back on track last time in the City of Hope Mile (G2) following a dud at Saratoga to start the season.

I'm not omitting Europe altogether, though. #3 Sahlan (6-1) is a progressive three-year-old coming off an upset win in the Prix du Moulin (G1) and hails from the yard that houses both Calandagan and Arc winner Daryz.

A mile might be a touch short for him, but #5 Program Trading (10-1) has only run one sub-par race in his life and is rounding back into form after a lengthy spell on the shelf.

Race 12: Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1), 8:25 p.m. ET

#6 Diamond Rain (6-1) has basically been my pick for this race the last couple of months, ever since her tough trip runner-up against She Feels Pretty in the E.P. Taylor (G1) at Woodbine. Away slowly and stuck behind a false pace, she nonetheless almost caught the heavy favorite after uncorking her bid too late. She likely hasn't peaked yet, and should appreciate the step up from 10 to 11 furlongs.

Throw out her performance in the Arc, and three-year-old #5 Gezora (7-2) checks a lot of boxes on form and class. And the main American player might not be She Feels Pretty, but #12 Belleza (20-1). She'll get her preferred firm ground here and was plenty impressive taking the Sheepshead Bay (G3) and Flower Bowl (G2) this season.