Trainer and jockey trends to consider for Breeders' Cup 2025

If you’re looking for a trainer and jockey to follow at the Breeders’ Cup, statistics suggest you should look seriously at Charlie Appleby and William Buick.

It’s widely known among players that the most successful trainer among those with runners at this year’s Breeders’ Cup is Aidan O’Brien, with 20 wins, and that the winningest rider is Mike Smith, with 27 victories.

But in terms of strike rate, Appleby and Buick lead the way – with Appleby in particular in a class of his own.

Appleby's remarkable strike rate

Appleby has scored 11 Breeders’ Cup victories, placing him seventh on the all-time list. But what’s amazing is that he’s recorded those victories – beginning with his first runner Outstrip in 2013 – from just 27 runners, at a remarkable strike rate of 41%. Nobody else with more than a few starters comes near to this.

Appleby has the advantage of training for one of the world’s largest thoroughbred players, Godolphin. But he’s not the only trainer preparing horses for major owners, and none have the strike rate that Appleby does.

Much of his success looks to be due to careful targeting. Unlike some European trainers, who contest the Breeders’ Cup as an afterthought following major home targets like the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1), Dewhurst S. (G1), and Prix du Moulin (G1), Appleby’s Breeders’ Cup winners tend to have their seasons geared specifically towards the World Championships.

One notable example is Rebel’s Romance, who seeks a third Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) on Saturday. Appleby hasn’t been shy about travelling him, contesting races in Britain, Germany, Dubai, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar as well as the United States in his 29-race career. 

However, he’s never contested the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – a race which winners in particular have found it very hard to back up from in the Breeders’ Cup. This year, his final lead-up was a winning run in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) Sept. 27. This may be worth considering when assessing whether he can beat Minnie Hauk, runner-up in soft conditions in a punishing Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

In addition to his 11 winners, eight other Appleby Breeders’ Cup runners have finished in the top four. Leave his runners out at your peril this weekend.

Riding with Buick

Appleby and Godolphin’s number-one rider, William Buick, has also been highly successful at the Breeders’ Cup, though not quite to the same extent. He’s won nine Breeders’ Cup races, all for Appleby. However, his mounts for other trainers have been unsuccessful to date, leaving him with nine victories from 39 mounts for a 23.1% strike rate – still comfortably the best among leading active riders.

Respect Brad Cox

If there’s one American trainer who stands out at the Breeders’ Cup in terms of strike rate, it’s Brad Cox. He doesn’t have as many victories as Bob Baffert (19), Chad Brown (19), or Todd Pletcher (15), but his 11 triumphs have come from 42 runners, a strike rate of 26%.

Cox’s 11 victories have come in a remarkably short time. He had his first runner, Carve, in 2014, and recorded his first win with Monomoy Girl in 2018. Perhaps fortunately for his opponents, he has just two runners at Del Mar – Infinite Sky in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) and Stellify in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1). Both are at long morning-line odds, but Cox’s record alone suggests they shouldn’t be ruled out.

Other trainers to note

Hall of Famer Richard Mandella doesn’t have the team he once did, and he hasn’t won a Breeders’ Cup race since 2016. However, his win strike rate of 18% (nine wins in 50 starts) is shaded only by Appleby and Cox among trainers with more than 30 starters. He has four Breeders’ Cup runners this year, two of which (Tamara and Kopion) are big chances ridden by all-time jockey leader Mike Smith.

Among those with relatively few Breeders’ Cup starters in their careers, the ones to watch may be Japan’s Yoshito Yahagi (two wins from three starters), the British duo of Ralph Beckett (two wins from 11 starters), and Brian Meehan (two wins from 13 starters).

At the other end of the scale, those hoping to see their fortunes improve include Kenny McPeek (1-for-38), Phil D’Amato (1-for-40), Richard Baltas (0-for-18), and Brendan Walsh (0-for-10).

Ortiz looks to bounce back

Since his first Breeders’ Cup victory aboard Lady Eli in 2014, Irad Ortiz Jr. has been almost unstoppable. He’s recorded 20 victories from 111 mounts, with an impressive 18% strike rate. But in 2024, for the first time since 2016, he didn’t ride a winner. His best chance this year, according to the morning line, is 5-2 Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) favorite Bentornato.

An interesting meet for Soumillon

Outstanding French-based jockey Christophe Soumillion has one victory from 10 previous Breeders’ Cup races. But those rides came prior to him picking up the top mounts for Aidan O’Brien since August, following Ryan Moore's injury. 

The jockey change hasn’t stopped the O’Brien bandwagon, with the pair combining for several major victories these past two months in Europe. However, some will be keeping an eye on how Soumillon handles Del Mar, a tight turf track much different from what he’s used to in Europe. He rides three favorites, but there is a chance he could take a couple of rides to adjust.

Other leading riders who are looking to improve their Breeders’ Cup strike rates include Tyler Gaffalione (2-for-63), Luis Saez (1-for-68), Hector Berrios (0-for-10), Juan Hernandez (0-for-21), and Umberto Rispoli (0-for-18).