Carryovers: Aqueduct’s $114,388 Pick 6, Ellis Park’s $6,219 Super High 5

July 7th, 2024

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson recommends horses to play in a pair of Sunday carryovers at Ellis Park and Aqueduct.

Ellis Park, Race 1: $6,219 Super High 5 carryover (12:50 p.m. ET)

No one hit the $1 Super High 5 in Saturday’s final race at Ellis Park, triggering a $6,219 carryover into the first race on Sunday’s card.

Race 1 is a $16,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won two races. The six-furlong dirt sprint has drawn seven entrants, and they’re tough to split. But we do think #7 Default (7-2) has a strong chance to win at nice odds.

Default finished second in a one-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs last fall, earning a 77 Brisnet Speed rating that stacks up well against Sunday’s field. She’s posted similar numbers in two recent starts at Churchill. Returning to dirt after a series of efforts on turf and Tapeta, Default finished second by a head in a $10,000 maiden claimer on May 12, earning a 72 Brisnet Speed rating. Then she cut back from one mile to seven furlongs and dominated a May 30 $10,000 maiden claimer by 5 1/2 lengths, earning a 75 Brisnet Speed rating.

Default enters off two bullet workouts at Ellis Park and still has upside, so we recommend keying her to finish first or second in the Super High 5.

Aqueduct, Race 4: $114,388 Pick 6 mandatory payout (2:35 p.m. ET)

Sunday is closing day of the Aqueduct meet, which means the massive $114,388 carryover in the $1 Pick 6 is being paid out in mandatory fashion. Even if no one selects all six winners, the prize pool will pay out to bettors who select five out of six.

The carryover gets started in Race 4, a maiden special weight for New York-bred fillies and mare sprinting seven furlongs on dirt. It looks like a perfect spot for #1 Empire Magic (3-5) to shine. The three-year-old filly debuted in a 6 1/2-furlong dash over this track and class level on May 24, and despite brushing the gate and getting away to a slow start, she rallied to finish third with an 86 Brisnet Speed rating.

That number is noteworthy for two reasons. One, it’s higher than the par winning number (84) for Sunday’s conditions. Two, it’s the highest number in Sunday’s field by a clear margin. If Empire Magic gets off to a better start under hot jockey Manny Franco, she can cruise to victory as a short-priced Pick 6 single.

Good luck!