Chasing carryovers: Ellis Park and mandatory payout at Gulfstream Park

August 19th, 2023

There’s a lot for bettors to look forward to on the carryover front this Saturday.

Ellis Park is heating up early with a $2,828 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Super High 5. Later in the afternoon is the mandatory payout of a $338,577 Pick 6 jackpot at Gulfstream Park.

Plus, TwinSpires bettors who opt-in to the 10x Points at Ellis Park and Colonial Downs promotion will receive 10x points on all wagers (excluding show bets), with no cap to the amount of points available to earn.

Let’s take a look at both carryovers and identify horses to build tickets around:

Ellis Park, Race 2: $2,828 Super High 5 carryover (1:17 p.m. ET)

The Super High 5 carryover is available to chase in Race 2, a $50,000 allowance optional claimer taking place over 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. The field is packed with speed, which should lend an advantage to morning line favorite #7 Chiseler (2-1),

An improving three-year-old gelding, Chiseler enters off a victory over this course and distance in the Dade Park Dash S. On that occasion, Chiseler settled a couple lengths behind a fast opening quarter-mile in :21.29 before advancing steadily to win by 2 1/4 lengths.

Chiseler figures to work out a similar trip in Saturday’s allowance optional claimer, setting the stage for a repeat victory. We recommend keying him on top in the Super High 5.

Gulfstream Park, Race 5: $338,577 Pick 6 mandatory payout (2:50 p.m. ET)

Winning a share of the $338,577 jackpot won’t be easy. The six-race sequence contains 52 horses (averaging nearly 8.7 per race) and 399,168 possible outcomes before scratches. The races look competitive, and finding a viable single is difficult.

Live longshots, however, are plentiful. Like #4 Centrodelantero (8-1) in Race 8, a $25,000 allowance optional claimer taking place over one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta. On July 8, Centrodelantero made his Tapeta debut over this track and distance in a $75,000 allowance optional claimer restricted to three-year-olds and ran a strong race, carving out the pace before staying on to finish second with an 89 Brisnet Speed rating. If he moves forward at all in his second start over this surface, Centrodelantero can challenge for top honors.

The feature event of the afternoon is Race 9, the $65,000 Sheer Drama S. for fillies and mares sprinting seven furlongs on dirt. We can’t exactly refer to #6 Charlie’s Wish (7-2) as a “longshot” since she’s the second choice on the morning line, but her 7-2 odds are enticing compared to morning line choice #3 R Adios Jersey (8-5). The latter ran second in Gulfstream’s Hurricane Bertie (G3) during the winter, but exits a defeat in a $62,500 allowance optional claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Gulfstream.

In contrast, Charlie’s Wish was tons the best in the Azalea S. over this track and distance last month, settling 2 1/2 lengths off the early tempo before rallying strongly to win by 4 3/4 lengths with a 92 Brisnet Speed rating—higher than any number R Adios Jersey has posted in 2022 or 2023. Charlie’s Wish is a three-year-old filly facing older rivals for the first time, so she may have more upside than five-year-old R Adios Jersey.

Circling back to the idea of searching for singles… if you want to build tickets around a creative and nice-priced single, we won’t talk you out of choosing Charlie’s Wish.

Good luck!