Churchill Downs: Betting the $2,689 Super High 5 carryover

November 19th, 2023

Do you have what it takes to select the top five finishers in Sunday’s second race at Churchill Downs? If you can pull it off, you’ll win a share of the $2,689 non-jackpot carryover up for grabs in the $1 Super High 5.

Race 2 is a $32,000 starter allowance taking place over six furlongs on dirt. An eight-horse field has turned out, which works out to 6,720 possible Super High 5 outcomes. It’s not an unmanageable number by any stretch of the imagination, and we can reduce the possibilities to consider down to 840 if we’re willing to single morning line favorite #6 Prisoner (8-5) on top.

Prisoner has been in strong form this year, winning five of his last seven starts. During the summer he settled just behind a hot pace in a $25,000 allowance optional claimer at Monmouth Park before rallying to win the six-furlong sprint by 4 1/2 lengths. Then he tackled a $50,000 claimer dashing six furlongs at Saratoga and led all the way to win by a head.

These victories yielded sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 101 and 95, and Prisoner’s Monmouth effort was flattered when runner-up Ego Man returned to win his next three starts. Tackling a $32,000 starter allowance at Churchill Downs should suit Prisoner just fine, considering none of his Sunday rivals have ever posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 97.

There are a couple of other positives in Prisoner’s favor as well. He was claimed at Saratoga by trainer Tom Amoss, who wins at a 23% rate with new claiming acquisitions. And Prisoner will be ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, the leading jockey at Churchill this meet. In short, what’s not to like? Prisoner looks ready to record his sixth win of 2023.

Underneath, let’s emphasize #1 Implementation (5-2). Prior to finishing sixth in a 1 1/16-mile $80,000 allowance optional claimer at Keeneland, the four-year-old gelding had won four straight races, including a trio of sprints. He was best by two lengths in a $50,000 starter allowance during the summer at Saratoga (earning a 92 Brisnet Speed rating) and has every chance to round out the top two on Sunday.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

  • $1 Super High 5: 6 with 1 with 2,3,4,7 with 2,3,4,5,7 with 2,3,4,5,7,8 ($64)

Good luck!