Hawthorne: Price play in the $3,166 Pick 6 carryover

June 1st, 2024

It’s been weeks since anyone assembled a winning Pick 6 ticket at Hawthorne. May 12 was the last time it happened. Four weekend cards have gone by since then without anyone hitting the $1 wager, triggering a quadruple carryover worth $3,166 into Saturday’s card.

The Pick 6 spans Race 3 (post time 4:50 p.m. ET) through Race 8, a sequence encompassing 55 horses (averaging about 9.2 per race) and 460,992 possible outcomes. But take note, four of those horses are also-eligible entrants, and three of the races drew only seven horses, so the sequence doesn’t look unmanageable for bettors who are willing to attack it hard.

One absolutely must-use horse at nice odds can be found in Race 5, a six-furlong allowance for fillies and mares. Three of the seven entrants are tied as the fastest in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, and one of those is morning line third choice #3 Dorothy Crowfoot (9-2), who threw down an 87 when wiring her debut in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Hawthorne last summer.

Dorothy Crowfoot made two subsequent starts last year. In the six-furlong Prairie Meadows Debutante S., she tracked the early pace before staying on to finish third. Then in a six-furlong $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Keeneland, Dorothy Crowfoot raced off the pace on her way to fifth place.

The competition should be easier at Hawthorne, so returning to the site of her maiden victory for her 2024 debut should suit Dorothy Crowfoot just fine. She’s been training up a storm over this track, posting three bullet workouts since April 21, including half a mile from the starting gate in :46 1/5 and five furlongs in :59 2/5.

Now, let’s rattle off some positive jockey and trainer stats in Dorothy Crowfoot’s corner. Trainer Larry Rivelli has been on fire at Hawthorne this meet, going 19-for-45 (42%), and jockey David Cohen has also done well with a 13-for-47 (28%) tally. Teaming up over the last two months, they’ve gone 4-for-11 (36%). Rivelli wins at a 31% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, at a 30% rate with horses racing on Lasix for the first time (which applies to Dorothy Crowfoot), and at a 31% rate in allowances.

In short, what’s not to like? If you have plenty of capital to invest and want to back up Dorothy Crowfoot with red-hot #5 Beehive (3-1) and capable Hawthorne allowance competitor #4 Samarita (2-1), we understand. But given the abundance of positives in Dorothy Crowfoot’s corner, we wouldn’t be opposed to singling her at a nice price.

Good luck!