Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Nov. 7, 2023
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Nov. 7 at Finger Lakes and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with horses to single in the $10,514 Pick 5 carryover at Zia Park.
Picks and Plays
Finger Lakes: Race 5: Tin Cup Chalice S. (six furlongs, 2:07 p.m. ET)
#1 Ranger Blue (10-1) was a sharp winner of a one-mile maiden special weight over the Presque Isle Downs Tapeta track, leading all the way to score by 3 3/4 lengths with a 75 Brisnet Speed rating that tops the Tin Cup Chalice field.
Ranger Blue subsequently faltered to finish last of six in the Bertram F. Bongard S. over a sloppy track at Saratoga, but the runaway winner—El Grande O—is quite good. The stamina Ranger Blue displayed breaking his maiden should come in handy while cutting back to six furlongs in the Tin Cup Chalice, so let’s take a shot betting him to win at double-digit odds.
- #1 Ranger Blue (10-1)
- #7 Enticing Prospect (2-1)
- #4 Cable Ready (4-1)
- $20 to win on #1 Ranger Blue
Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 3:32 p.m. ET)
#1 Seles (5-1) debuted in a five-furlong maiden special weight over the Horseshoe Indianapolis lawn and ran well to finish sixth by only one length. Her reward was a 67 Brisnet Speed rating, equal to the par winning number for Tuesday’s conditions.
Seles has the pedigree to stretch out over one mile for hot trainer D. Whitworth Beckman (a 38% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet), so let’s bet her to win and add an exacta using the favored Brad Cox trainee #4 Ms Quality Control (3-1) for second place.
- #1 Seles (5-1)
- #4 Ms Quality Control (3-1)
- #10 Taamuq (7-2)
- $20 to win on #1 Seles
- $5 Exacta: 1 with 4
Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 4:03 p.m. ET)
#9 Perp Walk (3-1) has been training in Kentucky, most notably clocking half a mile from the Churchill Downs starting gate in a quick :48 4/5. Trainer Steve Asmussen has gone 2-for-4 (50%) debuting juveniles on dirt at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet, so Perp Walk has a chance to upset the newly gelded #3 Quarrymen (8-5), who has already been defeated twice over this track and class level.
A win bet and a cold exacta is the way we’ll play.
- #9 Perp Walk (3-1)
- #3 Quarrymen (8-5)
- #4 Quantum (10-1)
- $15 to win on #9 Perp Walk
- $5 Exacta: 9 with 3
Zia Park: Race 6: $10,514 Pick 5 carryover (4:25 p.m. ET)
Tuesday’s 50-cent Pick 5 at Zia Park features an enticing non-jackpot carryover worth $10,514.
Looking for singles to build tickets around? We’ve got you covered with a pair of possibilities:
Race 8: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (five furlongs): #12 Ocean of Lies (5-2)
Ocean of Lies is facing 11 rivals in this maiden claiming sprint for fillies and mares, but she’s a clear-cut standout from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective. Whereas none of her rivals have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 64, Ocean of Lies has posted numbers in the 64-71 range in all seven of her starts.
Ocean of Lies placed a couple of times against $30,000 maiden optional claiming competition at Turf Paradise during the spring and is dropping in class off a fifth-place finish in a $20,000 maiden claimer at Los Alamitos, in which she flashed speed before tiring.
Tackling a $7,500 maiden claimer at Zia should make Ocean of Lies tough to beat in her first start for trainer Dick Cappellucci, a 23% winner at Zia since 2022. It’s important to note Cappellucci wins at a 24% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder. Throw in the fact she’ll be ridden by jockey Luis Fuentes (a 33% winner teaming up with Cappellucci over the last two months), and Ocean of Lies looks ready to roll.
Race 9: Allowance (six furlongs): #10 Corrina Corrina (3-5)
Corrina Corrina has been riding a hot streak. Since returning from a layoff in July, she’s won three straight stakes. She was especially sharp in the Sept. 23 Carlos Salazar S. at Albuquerque, sweeping from off the pace to dominate by 12 1/4 lengths with a career-best 95 Brisnet Speed rating.
None of Corrina Corrina’s Tuesday rivals have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 88, so dropping into the allowance ranks should make her mighty tough to beat. After all, six of Corrina Corrina’s last eight Brisnet Speed ratings have fallen in the 88-95 range. She signaled her readiness for another winning run with a sharp half-mile workout on Oct. 22 and looms as a second logical single for the Pick 5.