Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Dec. 30

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Dec. 30 at Turfway Park and Santa Anita, along with horses to bet in a trio of carryovers at Turfway, Mahoning Valley, and Tampa Bay Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Turfway Park Daily Double Down: Hit at least two daily doubles wagers at Turfway Park to unlock a 50% bonus on all winning Turfway daily double wagers for the day. Maximum total bonus is $50.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in eligible races at Royal Randwick (Australia).

Picks and Plays

Santa Anita: Race 3: Eddie Logan S. (one mile on turf, 3:59 p.m. ET)

#5 Nagirroc (9-5) won the six-furlong Futurity (G3) at Aqueduct with a determined rally before stretching out to run third against international competition in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). Nagirroc finished only 2 1/4 lengths behind a couple of talented European raiders that day.

Nagirroc is dropping in class for the Eddie Logan and figures to deliver victory under high-percentage jockey Flavien Prat, a 24% winner on turf. Recent Cecil B. DeMille (G3) winner #7 Speed Boat Beach (5-2) can complete a chalky exacta.

Selections

• #5 Nagirroc (9-5)
• #7 Speed Boat Beach (5-2)
• #3 Classical Cat (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 5 with 7

Turfway Park: Race 1: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

#10 Last Cookie (8-5) hasn’t shown much in a couple of starts against maiden special weight company on dirt, finishing seventh at Ellis Park and fifth at Horseshoe Indianapolis. But there are reasons to believe this half-brother to Metropolitan H. (G1) winner Frosted can improve at Turfway.

For starters, Last Cookie is switching from dirt to Tapeta. For another, he’s dropping in class to the $15,000 maiden claiming level. He’s also been gelded since his last start and gains a seven-pound weight allowance courtesy of apprentice jockey Walter Rodriguez. Throw in the fact trainer Brad Cox wins at a 31% rate with horses descending from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company, and all the signs suggest Last Cookie is being prepped for a winning performance.

#1 Full Mag (5-1), likewise dropping in class and switching surfaces for his first start as a gelding, can improve upon his ninth-place debut for a $50,000 maiden claiming tag at Keeneland and complete the exacta.

Selections

• #10 Last Cookie (8-5)
• #1 Full Mag (5-1)
• #4 Collectorate (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #10 Last Cookie
• $5 Exacta: 10 with 1
  Total: $25

Santa Anita: Race 9: Blue Norther S. (one mile on turf, 7:02 p.m. ET)

Former French campaigner #6 Manhattan Jungle (4-1) ran a gallant race in her U.S. debut. Starting as an 80-1 longshot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), Manhattan Jungle tracked the pace and was thoroughly in contention at the eighth pole, after which she weakened to finish eighth by 6 3/4 lengths.

Manhattan Jungle should find the competition easier in the Blue Norther, setting the stage for a winning run in her first start for trainer Michael McCarthy. Natalma (G1) third-place finisher #5 G Laurie (5-2) and Jimmy Durante (G3) runner-up #4 Decorated My Life (4-1) are logical choices to round out the exacta and trifecta.

Selections

• #6 Manhattan Jungle (4-1)
• #5 G Laurie (5-2)
• #4 Decorated My Life (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Manhattan Jungle
• $10 Exacta: 6 with 4,5 ($20)
• $5 Trifecta: 6 with 4,5 with 4,5 ($10)
  Total: $50

Carryover Watch

Mahoning Valley, Race 4: $33,099 Pick 6 mandatory payout (2:09 p.m. ET)

The final day of 2022 racing at Mahoning Valley brings the mandatory payout of a $33,099 carryover in the 20-cent Buckeye Pick 6.

One of the feature events of the afternoon is Race 7, the Joshua Radosevich Memorial S. for two-year-olds sprinting six furlongs on dirt. #9 Sammy and Shorty (5-2) looks like the horse to beat. Conditioned by hot trainer Jeffrey Radosevich (a 22% winner at Mahoning this meet), Sammy and Shorty crossed the wire third in the 1 1/16-mile Best of Ohio Juvenile S. over this track last month, but previously dominated the six-furlong Loyalty S. at Belterra Park by 4 1/4 lengths.

Cutting back in distance can send Sammy and Shorty to the winner’s circle under hot jockey Luis Rivera, a 20% winner at Mahoning who has succeeded at a 26% rate riding for Radosevich over the last two months. We recommend singling Sammy and Shorty in the Pick 6.

Tampa Bay Downs, Race 5: $84,143 Pick 5 carryover (2:33 p.m. ET)

Friday’s 50-cent Late Pick 5 at Tampa Bay Downs features a lucrative $84,143 non-jackpot carryover.

The best chance for a single might come in Race 8, a $16,000 allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares dashing seven furlongs on dirt. Only seven horses have been entered, and #4 Lady Frijoles (3-1) offers a lot of appeal. She’s only run once, dominating a $25,000 maiden claimer back in May at Tampa Bay Downs by 13 1/4 lengths. The third-place finisher returned to win her next start, flattering Lady Frijoles’s performance, and I’m optimistic we haven’t yet seen the best this four-year-old filly has to offer.

Turfway Park, Race 10: $4,339 Super High 5 carryover (10:25 p.m. ET)

The Friday card at Turfway Park features a $4,339 carryover in the $1 Super High 5, a wager available to play (as usual) in the final race of the evening.

That happens to be Race 10, a $5,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta. With an overflow field in the entries, the race appears difficult to handicap at first glance. But dig a little deeper, and a couple of fillies stand out.

The first is #10 Azamana Empire (3-1). The three-year-old filly misfired in a $10,000 maiden claimer against males at Horseshoe Indianapolis last month, but she previously ran fourth against fillies and mares in a $15,000 maiden claimer over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf course. Azamana Empire’s career-best 79 Brisnet Speed rating came in her lone sprint run to date, so dropping down in class and distance should make the daughter of Classic Empire formidable.

#9 Undercover Lady (7-2) is another key contender. She carved out the pace in a $15,000 maiden claimer over the Churchill Downs main track last month before fading to finish sixth. Trainer Matt Shirer wins at a 25% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, and Undercover Lady’s pedigree suggests she’ll enjoy racing on Tapeta. There’s a lot to like about her chances.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 9,10 with 9,10 with 2,3,4 with 2,3,4 with 2,3,4,5,8,12 ($48)
• $1 Super High 5: 9,10 with 2,3,4,5,8,12 with 9,10 with 2,3,4 with 2,3,4 ($48)
  Total: $96

Good luck!