Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Feb. 10

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Feb. 10 at Oaklawn Park and Turfway Park, along with horses to single in the $4,320 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Winter Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races Friday through Sunday.
• Kentucky Derby Week Bankroll Builder: Wager at least $50+ on the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pools and receive bonus funds to bet during Kentucky Derby week, May 2-6.

Picks and Plays

Oaklawn Park: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 3:03 p.m. ET)

#3 Global Stage (5-1) has yet to race, but the four-year-old son of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Street Sense has a chance to factor on debut. Trainer John Ortiz wins at a respectable 13% rate with first-time starters, and Global Stage has put together an encouraging work tab highlighted by a quick half-mile from the Oaklawn Park starting gate in :48 2/5.

Throw in hot jockey Ricardo Santana (a 22% winner at Oaklawn this meet), and Global Stage is worth betting to win and keying over #5 Plausible Denile (8-5) in the exacta. The latter runner brings competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the table, but his 9-0-3-2 lifetime record hints he’s happy settling for minor awards.

Selections

• #3 Global Stage (5-1)
• #2 Plausible Denile (8-5)
• #8 Bolzy (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Global Stage
• $10 Exacta: 3 with 2
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 4: $50,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 7:25 p.m. ET)

#9 Speed Warning (4-1) thrived in his first start over the Turfway Park Tapeta track. Favored at 2-1 to win a $30,000 maiden claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs, Speed Warning led all the way to dominate his rivals by 3 1/2 lengths.

Speed Warning brings competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the table for hot trainer Michael Stidham, a 21% winner at Turfway since Nov. 1. Throw in accomplished apprentice jockey Walter Rodriguez (who rides with a five-pound weight allowance), and Speed Warning is a logical win contender.

#10 Schifty’s Haloid (3-1) and #3 Transect (2-1) can battle for exacta honors, but first we’ll bet Speed Warning to win and single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #9 Speed Warning (4-1)
• #10 Schifty’s Haloid (3-1)
• #3 Transect (2-1)

Wagers

• $10 to win on #9 Speed Warning
• $10 Double: 9 with 4
• $5 Exacta: 9 with 3,10 ($10)
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#4 Donegal Arrow (5-2) ran strongly in his Jan. 5 debut over this track, distance, and class level, carving out the pace before battling on to finish second. Donegal Arrow pulled 6 1/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher and earned a sharp 85 Brisnet Speed rating.

Hot trainer Brad Cox wins at a lofty 32% rate with horses running long for the second time, and Donegal Arrow is a Triple Crown nominee, so let’s bet the son of Arrogate to win and single him to conclude our double wager.

#11 Accident (4-1) and #10 Roja Redemption (8-1) are logical choices to add in an exacta.

Selections

• #4 Donegal Arrow (5-2)
• #11 Accident (4-1)
• #10 Roja Redemption (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Donegal Arrow
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 10,11 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds, Race 3: $4,320 Pick 6 carryover (3:15 p.m. ET)

No one selected all six winners in Thursday’s Pick 6 sequence at Fair Grounds, which means the $1 wager boasts a $4,320 non-jackpot carryover for Friday’s card.

Looking for horses to build tickets around? We’ve got you covered with a pair of suggested singles:

Race 4: $12,500 Claiming (one mile): #6 Dude Drop Kid (7-2)

Dude Drop Kid isn’t the morning line favorite in this claimer for Louisiana-breds. That honor goes to #7 Bouldering (2-1), winner via qualification of a March 2022 maiden special weight at Fair Grounds. But Bouldering has only run once since then, finishing last in a Jan. 5 Fair Grounds allowance, and it’s unclear whether dropping in class will be sufficient to trigger a turnaround.

In contrast, Dude Drop Kid was last seen running second in a $15,000 claimer for Louisiana-breds at Fair Grounds on Jan. 8, earning a respectable 71 Brisnet Speed rating. Dude Drop Kid has tactical speed and figures to sit a favorable trip in Friday’s largely paceless field, so unless Bouldering bounces back in a big way, Dude Drop Kid is poised to snatch victory while dropping to the $12,500 level. I’m willing to make this four-year-old gelding a non-favored Pick 6 single.

Race 5: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile and 70 yards): #6 Simply Wow (8-5)

Simply Wow misfired in a maiden special weight racing about 1 1/8 miles over the Fair Grounds turf course last month, finishing fifth. But the three-year-old gelding previously debuted in a $30,000 maiden claimer traveling one mile and 70 yards over the Fair Grounds main track, and the result was a respectable third-place finish.

Returning to dirt and dropping down to the $15,000 maiden claiming level can trigger a winning run from Simply Wow. It helps that he has favorable jockey and trainer stats in his corner. To be specific, jockey Reylu Gutierrez is a 21% winner at Fair Grounds this meet and trainer Norm Casse wins at a 26% rate with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company. These stats, coupled with Simply Wow’s encouraging debut performance, stamp the morning line favorite as a logical Pick 6 single.

Good luck!