Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Nov. 28

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Nov. 28 at Turf Paradise, along with horses to play in the $3,852 Pick 5 carryover at Mahoning Valley.

Picks and Plays

Turf Paradise: Race 3: $15,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile, 3:24 p.m. ET)

After spending six of his first seven starts competing on the Southern California circuit, #7 Westphal (7-2) appreciated shipping to Turf Paradise for a $20,000 allowance optional claimer. Racing one mile in his first start for high-percentage trainer Justin Evans (a 27% winner at Turf Paradise this meet), Westphal rallied from no more than 2 1/4 lengths off the lead to score by two lengths with a solid 80 Brisnet Speed rating.

Westphal subsequently faltered in a grass allowance at Turf Paradise, but returning to dirt can trigger a rebound under hot jockey Luis Negron, who has gone 9-for-27 (33%) teaming up with Evans over the last two months.

We’ll bet Westphal to win, then single him to start double and Pick 3 wagers.

• $20 to win on #7 Westphal
• $10 Double: 7 with 3
• $5 Pick 3: 7 with 3 with 6
  Total: $35

Turf Paradise: Race 4: $16,000 Starter Optional Claiming (one mile on turf, 3:54 p.m. ET)

#3 Thirty Seconds Out (3-1) boasts an excellent 14-4-5-1 record over the Turf Paradise grass course. He was especially sharp in a $15,000-$10,000 starter optional claimer racing 1 1/8-miles earlier this month, leading all the way to prevail by 1 1/2 lengths.

There isn’t a crazy amount of speed in Monday’s field, so Thirty Seconds Out should enjoy another favorable trip on the front end. The fact hot trainer Jose Silva Jr. strikes at a 34% rate with last-out winners adds to the appeal.

In addition to a win bet on Thirty Seconds Out, we’ll single him in our double and Pick 3 wagers.

• $20 to win on #3 Thirty Seconds Out
• $10 Double: 3 with 6
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 5: $30,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (one mile, 4:31 p.m. ET)

#6 Taking Charge Desi (2-1) ran strongly in her first try over this track and class level on Nov. 15. Favored at 9-10 to win a six-furlong dash, Taking Charge Desi rallied to lead in midstretch, only to weaken late and settle for second place by three-quarters of a length.

Taking Charge Desi has cracked the trifecta in six straight races, including a runner-up finish in a one-mile maiden special weight at Canterbury Park. Stretching back out over one mile shouldn’t be an issue for the daughter of Travers (G1) winner Will Take Charge, so we’ll single Taking Charge Desi to conclude our multi-race wagers.

We’ll also bet Taking Charge Desi over #1 Lucy K (4-1) in an exacta.

• $10 Exacta: 6 with 1

Carryover Watch

Mahoning Valley, Race 1: $3,852 Pick 5 carryover (12:45 p.m. ET)

You’ll want to get an early start playing the races this Monday if you want to pursue the $3,852 Pick 5 carryover up for grabs at Mahoning Valley.

The 50-cent wager kicks off in Race 1 at 12:45 p.m. ET, so you’ll have to get your bets in before noon if you live in three of the four continental U.S. time zones.

Need help building your tickets? We’ll help get you started with a suggested single and live longshot:

Best single: Race 3: #8 Fast Giselle (2-1)

It might seem a bit risky to single a three-year-old filly facing older rivals in her return from a one-year layoff, but Fast Giselle looks ready to win this six-furlong maiden special weight for fillies and mares.

Fast Giselle ran three times on the Kentucky circuit last fall, finishing sixth, second, and fifth in a trio of six-furlong maiden special weights at Keeneland and Churchill Downs. Her third start produced an 80 Brisnet Speed rating, clearly the highest figure in Monday’s field.

Fast Giselle has trained up a storm at The Thoroughbred Center in preparation for her return. She breezed a bullet half-mile from the starting gate in :47 3/5 on Oct. 22, repeated the feat on Oct. 29, and clocked a bullet five furlongs in 1:01.00 on Nov. 8. Fast Giselle is also adding blinkers and Lasix, so there are many reasons to believe she’ll produce a winning run off the layoff.

Live longshot: Race 1: #6 Youvesaiditall (5-1)

Speed hasn’t been carrying very well in one-mile races at Mahoning Valley this meet, with gate-to-wire winners striking only 9% of the time from a sample size of 43 races. We’ll see if Youvesaiditall can capitalize on this track profile to record an upset victory as the fourth choice in a one-mile $15,000 claimer.

Youvesaiditall isn’t completely lacking in tactical speed; two starts back, he employed pace-tracking tactics to dominate a $16,000 claimer racing one mile at Thistledown by five lengths. But the son of Lookin At Lucky is also perfectly capable of rallying from far behind. In a $10,000 claimer over one mile at Mahoning Valley earlier this month, Youvesaiditall dropped nearly a dozen lengths off the early pace before rallying to win by 1 3/4 lengths.

There’s a fair amount of speed entered in Monday’s field, so Youvesaiditall should receive the perfect setup to record a third consecutive victory.

Good luck!