Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of April 26

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, April 26 at Will Rogers Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, plus tickets for the $32,747 Super High 5 carryover at Keeneland.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• 10x Points on Harness Racing: On Mondays, Tuesdays, and Wednesdays, receive 10x reward points on all wagers at any harness track.
• $10,000 Keeneland Spring Meet Leaderboard: Place $10+ win bets at Keeneland from April 7-23 (excluding April 9) to earn points and compete for your share of $10,000 in prizes.
• Hoosier Park $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Hoosier Park.
• Keeneland Daily Double Down: Receive a 50% bonus on all winning double wagers at Keeneland on Wednesdays and Thursdays (also Friday, April 28).

Picks and Plays

Will Rogers Downs: Race 5: Allowance (one mile, 4:05 p.m. ET)

In a race containing very little speed on paper, #2 Our Davina (12-1) has upset potential. In her first run of the season, the three-year-old filly pressed the pace in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Will Rogers Downs before drawing off to beat older rivals by 2 1/4 lengths.

If Our Davina shakes loose on an easy lead while stretching out over one mile, she can spring a surprise against logical favorite and stablemate #4 Canada Candy (9-5). The latter is a five-year-old mare carrying 124 pounds versus the feathery 115 pounds assigned to Our Davina.

We’ll box Our Davina and Canada Candy in the exacta, pressing the lower-paying combination with Canada Candy on top.

Selections

• #2 Our Davina (12-1)
• #4 Canada Candy (9-5)
• #7 Smokin’ Okie (4-1)

Wagers

• $13 Exacta: 4 with 2
• $7 Exacta: 2 with 4
  Total: $20

Will Rogers Downs: Race 6: Handicap (1 1/16 miles, 4:35 p.m. ET)

#3 Paluxy (3-5) had no difficulty carrying 126 pounds to victory in a one-mile handicap over this track on April 5, settling a few lengths off the early pace before taking command to win by 2 1/2 lengths with a sharp 86 Brisnet Speed rating.

A similar performance on Wednesday can send Paluxy back to the winner’s circle over #5 Royally (6-1), #6 Cowboy Mischief (4-1), and #1 Beckett’s Luckyday (6-1). We’ll bet a trifecta ticket accordingly.

Selections

• #3 Paluxy (3-5)
• #5 Royally (6-1)
• #6 Cowboy Mischief (4-1)

Wagers

• $10 Trifecta: 3 with 5 with 1,6 ($20)

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 6:07 p.m. ET)

#7 Castle Magic (5-2) cracked the trifecta in all three of her starts over this track and class level last year. Along the way, she earned consistent Brisnet Speed ratings in the 61-64 range, not far off the 68 rating that stands as the par winning number for Wednesday’s conditions.

If Castle Magic moves forward in her three-year-old debut, she can visit the winner’s circle for hot trainer Robert Gorham, who has gone 3-for-8 (38%) to start the meet. Gorham wins at a solid 20% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more.

#6 Always Blossom (4-1) can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #7 Castle Magic (5-2)
• #6 Always Blossom (4-1)
• #3 Explosive Skies (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Castle Magic
• $10 Exacta: 7 with 6
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 8: $32,747 Super High 5 carryover (4:44 p.m. ET)

If you want to win a share of the $32,747 carryover up for grabs in Wednesday’s $1 Super High 5 at Keeneland, you’ll have to decipher Race 8, an allowance for fillies and mares racing 1 1/2 miles on turf.

As far as Super High 5s go, Wednesday’s offering at Keeneland looks reasonably straightforward to handicap. Certainly that’s the case from a mathematical perspective; with nine entries, there are only 15,120 possible Super High 5 outcomes.

There isn’t much speed in this field, which could lend an advantage to #7 Broadway Boogie (9-5). She isn’t a pacesetter by any means, but she’s raced within the front half of the field in her last two starts and enters in strong form. On Jan. 5, she trounced a $35,000 allowance optional claimer racing 1 1/2 miles at Gulfstream Park, counting #3 Bravo Kitten (8-1) among her beaten rivals. And on March 4, Broadway Boogie rallied to lead in the 1 3/8-mile The Very One (G3) at Gulfstream before flattening out to finish fifth by 1 1/2 lengths.

Jockey Jorge Ruiz and trainer James Toner have been hot together over the last two months, going 5-for-12 (42%). If Broadway Boogie can work out a clean trip racing a couple of lengths behind a slow pace at Keeneland, she’ll be tough to beat. We’ll key her on top in the Super High 5.

#5 Light Stars (4-1) is another logical contender. Last fall, she unleashed a big rally to finish second in a 1 1/2-mile allowance at Keeneland, beaten only three-quarters of a length. But Light Stars hasn’t run since October and may be compromised by a slow pace on Wednesday, so she seems more likely to snatch a minor award than visit the winner’s circle.

The above-mentioned Bravo Kitten has the tactical speed to work out a favorable trip; the daughter of Kitten’s Joy might even set the pace. Last time out she tracked a slow pace in a $35,000 allowance optional claimer racing 1 3/8 miles at Gulfstream before taking command to win by 3 1/4 lengths. She’s cracked the trifecta in her last four starts and can do so again on Wednesday.

#4 Lady Arsinoe (6-1) and #2 Miss Yearwood (9-2), who finished fifth and sixth in the 1 1/2-mile Orchid (G3) at Gulfstream earlier this month, are others we’ll include. Throw in the consistent allowance competitors #1 Federalist Papers (6-1) and #6 Shad Nation (15-1) and we’re ready to go.

• $1 Super High 5: 7 with 5 with 2,3,4,6 with 1,2,3,4,6 with 1,2,3,4,6 ($48)
• $1 Super High 5: 7 with 2,3,4,6 with 5 with 1,2,3,4,6 with 1,2,3,4,6 ($48)
  Total: $96

Good luck!