Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Strategic Risk

Strategic Risk, winner of the Smarty Jones S. on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, doesn’t have the flashiest pedigree at first glance.

But dig a little deeper into the bloodlines of the up-and-coming bay colt, and it’s clear Strategic Risk has lots of potential for success in the spring classics: the Kentucky Derby (G1), Preakness (G1), and Belmont (G1).

Strategic Risk is a son of Noble Bird, a stoutly bred stallion who showed flashes of serious talent during his racing career. Consistency was never his strong suit, but when at his best, Noble Bird won the 1 1/8-mile Stephen Foster H. (G1), the 1 1/8-mile Fayette (G2), and the 1 3/16-mile Pimlico Special H. (G3). In the latter race, he romped by 11 1/4 lengths; in the Fayette, he reached the wire in the track-record time of 1:47.94.

Early speed was Noble Bird’s greatest weapon, which is interesting since his pedigree resembles that of a classic route racer more than a flashy speedster. Noble Bird’s sire, Birdstone, won the 1 1/2-mile Belmont and 1 1/4-mile Travers (G1) before going on to sire Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird and Belmont winner Summer Bird. Noble Bird’s dam sire, Tiznow, nabbed the 1 1/4-mile Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) twice and regularly passed on stamina to his progeny.

So far, Noble Bird hasn’t emulated the success of Birdstone and Tiznow at stud. His son Classic Car Wash made some noise when placing in the Sam F. Davis (G3) and Tampa Bay Derby (G3) on the 2022-23 Road to the Kentucky Derby, but overall, Noble Bird has struggled to sire graded stakes-caliber horses.

But through Strategic Risk, Noble Bird has a chance to reenter the spotlight. Strategic Risk’s exact pedigree is already proven, and it offers potential not only for class but for success racing 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby.

The dam of Strategic Risk, Strategize, has been bred to Noble Bird on a few occasions. The results have been promising. The Noble Bird/Strategize cross has previously produced Strategic Bird, winner of the Sandpiper S. and Cheryl S. White Memorial sprinting six furlongs, and Just Relax, who finished third in the 1 1/16-mile FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality S.

Digging deeper, Strategize's pedigree warrants closer examination. She’s an unraced daughter of 2005 champion three-year-old male Afleet Alex out of Strategy, by 1992 Horse of the Year A.P. Indy.

Afleet Alex was a versatile racehorse. As a two-year-old, he won the seven-furlong Hopeful (G1). But he was at his best over classic distances, winning the Belmont and 1 3/16-mile Preakness after finishing a close third in the Kentucky Derby.

At stud, Afleet Alex tended to pass on stamina, with his progeny compiling an average winning distance of 7.4 furlongs. The best of them include 1 1/4-mile Travers (G1) winner Afleet Express, 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) hero Texas Red, 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby (G1) conqueror Materiality, 1 1/8-mile Vanity (G1) winner Iotapa, and 1 3/4-mile Breeders’ Cup Marathon (G2) victor Afleet Again.

Daughters of Afleet Alex have foaled a variety of sprinters, milers, and route racers, but the most accomplished one—Sir Winston—scored his signature win in the Belmont, reiterating Afleet Alex’s reputation as a source of classic stamina.

As for Strategy, she nabbed her biggest win in the 1 1/8-mile Real Prize S., showing the stamina of a route racer. That’s not surprising since her sire, A.P. Indy, was a long-winded winner of the Belmont and Breeders’ Cup Classic. He later developed into a breed-shaping sire who consistently passed on abundant stamina to his progeny.

Detailing the exploits of all A.P. Indy’s best runners would require a book. A small handful include champion and Preakness winner Bernardini, champion and Belmont winner Rags to Riches, Horse of the Year Mineshaft, multiple Grade 1 winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up Aptitude, and five-time Grade 1 winner Music Note—all top-level winners racing 1 1/4 miles or farther.

With so many classic influences in Strategic Risk’s pedigree, he’s cut out for success racing 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby.