Oaklawn Park: Betting exotic wagers in the Rebel Stakes

Although eight horses will seek the winner’s share of a $1 million purse in Saturday’s Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park, I believe the 1 1/16-mile event is shaping up as a two-horse showdown.

#1 Caddo River (9-5) and #7 Concert Tour (2-1) enter off sharp victories for high-profile connections. They bring contrasting running styles to the mix and should run first and second. But which one will grab the 50 Kentucky Derby (G1) qualification points as the winner, and which will settle for second place? That’s a tough question.

Let’s weigh the pros and cons of each colt, settle on one as our top choice, and then construct a series of exotic wagers with the goal of pursuing a big payday.

#1 Caddo River

Pros

He has serious frontrunning speed and is already a stakes winner at Oaklawn, when he dominated the one-mile Smarty Jones S. by 10 1/4 lengths, over next-out Saudi Derby runner-up Cowan.

Jockey Florent Geroux and trainer Brad Cox have both been hot at Oaklawn this winter, and Caddo River wasn’t asked for his best in the Smarty Jones, when he won under a hand ride with his ears pricked.

Cons

There are several other speed horses in the Rebel field, which sets the stage for a contested pace. Because he won the Smarty Jones, he’ll have to carry top weight of 122 pounds and will concede five pounds to Concert Tour.

#7 Concert Tour

Pros

He is undefeated in two starts and most recently rallied to victory in the San Vicente (G2) at Santa Anita. He has run slightly faster than Caddo River on the Brisnet Speed rating scale, and trainer Bob Baffert has won the Rebel seven times since 2010. He’ll carry just 117 pounds, five fewer than Caddo River.

Cons

He has yet to start at Oaklawn and has never run farther than seven furlongs. He has also yet to defeat the toughest competition. San Vicente runner-up Freedom Fighter returned to finish fourth at a short price in the Gotham (G3) last week.

Conclusions

It’s tough to split the two favorites, but the effortless way Caddo River dominated the Smarty Jones leads me to believe he can overcome a challenging pace setup in the Rebel and record a second straight stakes win.

For third and fourth place in the trifecta and superfecta, we’ll attempt to boost the payoffs by emphasizing #2 Big Lake (12-1), a versatile Steve Asmussen trainee entering off back-to-back maiden and allowance wins racing 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds.

$6 trifecta: 1 with 7 with 2,4,6 ($18)
$2 superfecta: 1 with 7 with 2 with 4,5,6,8 ($8)
$2 superfecta: 1 with 7 with 4,6 with 2 ($4)
Total: $30

Good luck!