Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Beating favorites at Churchill Downs

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Sept. 19 at Churchill Downs and Charles Town, along with tickets for Churchill’s $7,698 Super High 5 carryover and a price play for Aqueduct’s $48,658 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $1,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Hoosier Park on Thursday to win your share of a $1,000 daily prize pool.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in the final two races at Fraser Downs each day from Sept. 12 through Nov. 29.
• Hawthorne Race Course $1,400 Thursday Leaderboard: Place $10+ single-horse win bets at Hawthorne on Thursday to earn points and compete for your share of a $1,400 prize pool.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 5 p.m. ET)

#4 Lady Riley (6-1) has finished ninth in each of her first two starts on turf at Ellis Park. She never factored when debuting in a one-mile maiden special weight, but then she showed pace-tracking speed when tackling a $50,000 maiden optional claimer over the same distance.

Lady Riley has the pedigree to shine while switching to dirt for trainer Christopher Davis, who has gone 2-for-2 (100%) at Churchill Downs this meet. Speed is often effective on dirt, and there’s little to no pace in this field on paper, so Lady Riley has a shot at leading from start to finish while dropping in class.

At 6-1, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #4 Lady Riley (6-1)
• #2 City Cocktails (3-1)
• #6 Reign Champagne (5-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Lady Riley (6-1)

Churchill Downs: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 6:56 p.m. ET)

#1 I Got Game (9-2) has finished second, fourth, and fifth in his first three starts against maiden special weight competition while knocking heads with future stakes winners Politicallycorrect and Owen Almighty. Along the way, he’s endured a couple of troubled trips.

Perhaps I Got Game can catch a clean trip and an easier field in his fourth start for high-percentage trainer Tom Amoss. A win bet is the way we’ll play.

Selections

• #1 I Got Game (9-2)
• #4 Admiral Dennis (7-2)
• #9 Monsieur Big Man (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 I Got Game

Charles Town: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 7:57 p.m. ET)

Pacesetters have won 65% of 4 1/2-furlong sprints at Charles Town this year. At the same time, horses breaking from the rail have won 20% of such races.

These stats point to #1 Blessednotlucky (3-1) as a viable win threat. He’s shown speed in both of his starts, including when finishing a pacesetting fourth in a four-furlong maiden special weight at Timonium last month. Now he’s adding blinkers and Lasix for high-percentage trainer Anthony Farrior, both of which could trigger improvement.

#5 Fear the Facts (8-1), who has been competing at Gulfstream Park and Colonial Downs, can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Blessednotlucky (3-1)
• #5 Fear the Facts (8-1)
• #6 Uncle Timmy (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Blessednotlucky
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 5
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $7,698 Super High 5 carryover (5 p.m. ET)

The opening race at Churchill Downs boasts a $7,698 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

We’ve already highlighted #4 Lady Riley (6-1) as a live price play while dropping in class and switching from turf to dirt. Is she a lock to win? No, there are uncertainties surrounding her chances. But her 6-1 morning line odds are enticing, and the rest of this field isn’t particularly strong on paper, so we recommend keying Lady Riley on top in the Super High 5.

However, we’ll keep our investment minimal to balance the risks involved with backing a horse like Lady Riley. Underneath, we’ll focus on class-dropping fillies like #6 Reign Champagne (5-2), #2 City Cocktails (3-1), #8 Bisa (7-2), and #1 Benevolence (8-1), who still have upside while taking on easier competition. City Cocktails in particular has a path to improvement while switching from turf to dirt.

• $1 Super High 5: 4 with 1,2,6,8 with 1,2,6,8 with 1,2,6,8 with 1,2,6,8 ($24)

Aqueduct: Race 4: $48,658 Pick 6 carryover (2:40 p.m. ET)

The Thursday card at Aqueduct is highlighted by a $48,658 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

Looking for a price horse to boost the potential payoff? Check out #9 Yesterday (6-1) in Race 9, the final leg of the sequence. It’s a maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies sprinting six furlongs on turf.

Yesterday debuted in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Saratoga. After tracking the pace in third place, she weakened to finish sixth by half a dozen lengths against Virgin Colada, who returned to finish second in the P. G. Johnson S.

Cutting back to six furlongs may suit Yesterday to perfection. She’s a daughter of American Pharoah—the sire of Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G2) winner Four Wheel Drive—out of Essential Rose, the dam of two-time graded stakes-winning turf sprinter Roses for Debra. Throw in the fact she’s picking up five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., and Yesterday has a strong chance to outrun expectations as the fourth choice on the morning line.

Good luck!