Thursday Thoughts with Jason Beem for Oct. 30, 2025

A good Thursday morning to you all! Lots going on with the leadup to the Breeders' Cup and as always so much information and things coming fast and furious at us. I won’t go into handicapping the races, although I will give my Classic (G1) picks at the end of today’s column, which you’ll want to be sure to toss as I’m usually terrible in that race!

But this is annually one of the most fun events on the racing calendar and every year ends up filled with drama, memorable performances, tough beats, and hopefully for some of you, big scores. Because the two days go by so quickly, I think they can turn into a bit of a whirlwind for horseplayers. It’s easy to divert from your handicapping and betting plans for a variety of reasons. Most years I sit with friends at Tampa Bay Downs and end up getting talked into liking horses I didn’t even consider all weekend long. And it’s funny because I feel like I always tell myself to trust my own opinion and thoughts and yet I don’t.

I think it’s important to take away some of the potential pains that can occur by having some planning when you get to the track or just to your TwinSpires account. Make sure your account is funded, make sure you know when the races are going off and what sequences you want to play start. There’s so many Pick 4’s and 5’s throughout the two days that horizontal players need to determine ahead of time which sequences they really want to go after.

Sovereignty’s scratch in the Classic not only changes how the race will be bet and play out, but it probably changes how many people will approach all the bets and sequences around the Classic. He was probably the most likely single for a lot of players, along with maybe Minnie Hauk or Rebel’s Romance in the Turf (G1). Those I think were going to be where a lot of tickets went narrow before trying to catch prices in other legs. So the dynamics very well could change for a lot of tickets and maybe turf runners become the anchor points for a lot of tickets. It’ll be interesting to watch unfold and I’m curious to hear everyone’s opinions.

The disappointment about the Sovereignty scratch is a tough one as he was surely the headliner coming into the weekend. Of course there are great stories in each race, but the Kentucky Derby (G1) winner looking to cap off a Horse of the Year campaign in the Breeders' Cup Classic will always be a top story. Plus, I think a lot of people see him as having the ability of a generational type horse and without a win against his older rivals in a race like the Classic, I think he’ll always have a bit of “what if” to his legacy. I mean, you win the Kentucky Derby, your legacy is pretty safe. But I think he had the potential to lift into that upper echelon.

A lot of us assume he’ll head off to the breeding shed sooner than later, but this was just a fever so it’s not like it’s an injury. Hopefully we see him race again. For me personally, there’s no excitement that comes from getting to see his babies race on the track in a few years as the stallion ads like to promote. It’s horse racing and when we get a great horse like him, I want to see him on the track. So here’s hoping that comes true.

Otherwise, let’s hope it’s a fun weekend. I think my biggest opinion as of now is Hope Road in the Filly and Mare Sprint (G1), but of course, the odds, and other factors can always change that. Maybe I should heed my own advice from earlier in this column and stick to my guns!

I hope you guys have a great Breeders’ Cup and we’ll talk all about it on my podcast and this column Monday.

BC Classic Picks: