Analyzing Pick 5 and Pick 6 carryovers at Hawthorne

The Sunday card at Hawthorne is highlighted by carryovers in the $1 Pick 6 and both of the 50-cent Pick 5s.

Hawthorne: Race 1: $2,642 Pick 5 carryover (3:43 p.m. ET)

The opening leg of the Early Pick 5 is Race 1, a five-furlong maiden special weight for juvenile fillies. We suggest using only #4 Carpet Queen (7-2) and #5 Voodoo Lady (3-1), a pair of first-time starters trained by Larry Rivelli.

Since 2020, Rivelli has compiled an excellent 15-for-47 (32%) record debuting juveniles in dirt sprints at Hawthorne. Both Carpet Queen and Voodoo Lady are bred to shine from an early age, and they’ve posted quick workouts at Hawthorne, so chances are one or the other will prevail.

Hawthorne: Race 4: $200 Pick 6 carryover (5:14 p.m. ET)

The Pick 6 gets underway in Race 4, which is also the penultimate leg of the Early Pick 5. It’s a six-furlong $30,000 starter optional claimer in which #6 Devil’s Tower (3-1) is a logical win threat after posting Brisnet Speed ratings of 95, 92, and 90 in his last three starts, including a win in a six-furlong $62,500 allowance optional claimer.

But we must also use #5 Sir Sterling (9-2) at a bigger price. After competing at Canterbury Park through the summer, Sir Sterling shipped to Hawthorne for a six-furlong $25,000 claimer on Oct. 5. The result? A blowout win. Sir Sterling set a fast pace before pulling away to win by six lengths with a 91 Brisnet Speed rating, suggesting he may have the talent to upset Devil’s Tower.

Hawthorne: Race 5: $2,537 Pick 5 carryover (5:46 p.m. ET)

The Late Pick 5 starts in Race 5, and one of the trickiest legs to handicap is Race 7, which is also part of the Pick 6.

Race 7 is a one-mile and 70-yard $5,000 claimer. #6 Coni’s Coup (7-5) is a clear morning-line favorite while dropping in class, but he hasn’t come close to challenging for victory in four starts at Hawthorne this year and could be vulnerable to defeat.

#2 Crecencio (6-1) is an intriguing alternative. While he’s disappointed in two previous starts on dirt at Hawthorne, one was a maiden special weight and the other was a $20,000 claimer.

Crecencio starred in his most recent dirt start, winning a one-mile $12,500 claimer at Thistledown with a career-best 80 Brisnet Speed rating. That’s three points higher than the par winning number for Sunday’s conditions at Hawthorne, so don’t leave Crecencio off your tickets.

Good luck!