Friday’s Best Bets and Spooky Quick Picks: Churchill Downs and Del Mar for Oct 31

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Oct. 31 at Del Mar, and Churchill Downs.

*Editor's Note: BAQ has canceled live racing today due to weather

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 8x Points at Churchill Downs: Receive 8x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Churchill Downs from Friday through Sunday.
• Breeders’ Cup $10 Bet Back: Receive a bonus bet up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second or third in selected races at Del Mar.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge
• $200 Churchill Downs Feeder to 11/8 Churchill Downs CBC Qualifier
• $70 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $40 Charles Town Challenge
• $100 Belmont at Aqueduct Feeder to 11/15 Churchill Downs Claiming Crown NHC Qualifier [BAQ Canceled]

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Aqueduct: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 1:32 p.m. ET) [BAQ has canceled live racing today]

Del Mar: Race 4: Senator Ken Maddy S. (five furlongs on turf, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Multiple graded stakes winner #4 Queen Maxima (5-2) is a logical favorite, but many of her best efforts have come at Santa Anita, and she’s done her best work racing 5 1/2 furlongs to 6 1/2 furlongs. In contrast, she’s 1-for-5 at Del Mar, and five furlongs might be a little shorter than she wants to run.

Let’s try to beat Queen Maxima with #6 Shoot It True (3-1). The daughter of Munnings is 2-for-2 on turf, dominating a pair of allowance contests at Saratoga by margins of three lengths and 3 3/4 lengths, and she still has upside for high-percentage trainer Wesley Ward.

We’ll bet Shoot It True to win and key her over Queen Maxima in an exacta.

Selections

• #6 Shoot It True (3-1)
• #4 Queen Maxima (5-2)
• #2 Nay V Belle (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Shoot It True
• $10 Exacta: 6 with 4
  Total: $30

Churchill Downs: Race 10: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 6:45 p.m. ET)

#5 Prime Suspect (2-1) debuted in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. She pressed the pace for half a mile before tiring to finish seventh in a 12-horse field.

Trainer Brad Cox wins at a 27% rate with second-time starters, and at a 28% rate with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company, so chances are Prime Suspect will shine while descending in class for her second start. A large win bet is in order, along with an exacta using #7 Fulmine (3-1) for second place.

Selections

• #5 Prime Suspect (2-1)
• #7 Fulmine (3-1)
• #4 Vino Subito (10-1)

Wagers

• $40 to win on #5 Prime Suspect
• $10 Exacta: 5 with 7
  Total: $50

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct: Race 4: $34,909 Pick 6 carryover (2:27 p.m. ET) [BAQ has canceled live racing for today]

The $34,909 carryover in Aqueduct’s $1 Pick 6 was going to be up for grabs on Thursday, but since Thursday’s card was canceled due to poor weather, the carryover has shifted to Friday instead.

Tournament Watch

Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge

If you’re competing in the lucrative Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC), we’re here to help with a suggested play for Friday’s portion of the two-day tournament.

In Race 7, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), we’re intrigued by longshot #3 Meaning (15-1). She debuted in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Los Alamitos and ran even better than it first appears. She made an early move to seize the lead, kept going through a quick half-mile, and then kicked on down the homestretch to win by 3 1/4 lengths.

To make multiple moves and still win decisively on debut is an impressive feat. Meaning has the pedigree to stretch out around two turns and has trained strongly for the Breeders’ Cup, setting the stage for a potential double-digit upset win.

BCBC players are required to bet at least $600 in three of the five Breeders’ Cup races on Friday. If you want to bet the $600 minimum in the Juvenile Fillies, we recommend breaking it down as a $400 win bet on Meaning and $100 exactas keying Meaning on top of #1 Iron Orchard (6-1) and #7 Explora (5-2).

• Race 7: $400 to win on #3 Meaning
• Race 7: $100 Exacta: 3 with 1,7 ($200)
  Total: $600

Good luck!