Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: How to bet Keeneland’s $249,893 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Oct. 17 at Gulfstream Park, Keeneland, and Remington Park, including a ticket for Keeneland’s huge $249,893 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Bet $3,000 Get 5% Back on BCBC Seat: Place at least $3,000 in eligible wagers on races from Oct. 1 through Oct. 26 to receive 5% back on your Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge seat purchase through TwinSpires.
• $3,000 Keeneland WIN Ladder: Place a $5+ single-horse win wager on selected races at Keeneland each Thursday and Friday in October to move up the Win Ladder and compete for your share of a $3,000 prize pool.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $70 Keeneland Challenge
• $400 Keeneland Bonus Feeder Friday to 10/18 Keeneland KDBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $200 Remington Park Feeder to 10/25 Keeneland BCBC/CBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 1: $25,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 12:50 p.m. ET)

#1 Gray Beast (7-2) ran reasonably well in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for Florida-breds at Gulfstream last time out. He finished fourth behind a couple of next-out winners, including Wayne’s Law, who won Gulfstream’s Aventura S. in his next start.

Adding blinkers and dropping into the maiden claiming ranks may help Gray Beast vie for victory in his second start. Let’s bet him to win and play him over #7 Gigline (9-5) in the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Gray Beast (7-2)
• #7 Gigline (9-5)
• #2 Candy Road (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Gray Beast
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 7
  Total: $30

Keeneland: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 2:36 p.m. ET)

#2 Lion Lake (5-2) debuted in a one-mile maiden special weight over the tricky European-style turf course at Kentucky Downs. Facing 11 rivals, she ran well to finish fourth.

Lion Lake should find the competition a bit easier at Keeneland, and cutting back to 5 1/2 furlongs may help her chances. A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #2 Lion Lake (5-2)
• #7 Miss Soothsayer (9-2)
• #3 Dafina (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 Lion Lake

Remington Park: Race 5: Oklahoma Classic Distaff Turf S. (1 1/16 miles on turf, 8:57 p.m. ET)

#2 Miss Code West (8-5) has won 11 of her 15 starts, including a bevy of stakes. She’s 2-for-2 on turf this year and exits a win in the Bob Barry Memorial S. at Remington Park, suggesting she’s coming into the Oklahoma Classics Distaff Turf in fine form.

Defending Oklahoma Classic Distaff Turf winner #1 Doudoudouwanadance (7-2) and Bob Barry Memorial third-place finisher #3 Maybe Dolcie (4-1) can battle to complete the exacta.

Selections

• #2 Miss Code West (8-5)
• #1 Doudoudouwanadance (7-2)
• #3 Maybe Dolcie (4-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 2 with 1,3 ($20)

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 1: $249,893 Pick 5 carryover (2:36 p.m. ET)

A series of upsets on Thursday at Keeneland befuddled bettors and ensured no one hit the 50-cent Early Pick 5. As a result, Friday’s Early Pick 5 features a massive $249,893 non-jackpot carryover.

Let’s take a race-by-race look at the sequence:

Race 1: $100,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt)

#8 Our Shenanigan (6-5), runner-up in a maiden special weight at Churchill Downs last fall, is the favorite in her first start since January. But the layoff is at least a small question mark, so we’ll back her up with the unraced #1 Army Nurse (8-1), whose trainer—Brian Lynch—wins at a 29% rate with horses debuting at the maiden claiming level.

Race 2: $20,000 Claiming (1 1/8 miles on dirt)

#1 Iron Sharpens Iron (7-5) decisively won a $50,000 claimer at Ellis Park two starts back, suggesting he’s the horse to beat. But #4 Schifty’s Haloid (4-1) has earned similar Brisnet Speed ratings in recent starts, and #8 Look to the Cross (8-1) is fast enough to challenge on his best day.

Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (about seven furlongs on dirt)

#7 Plaza Cue (7-5), #2 Scooch Over (3-1), and #9 Senora d’Oro (8-1) were separated by less than one length when running 2-3-4 in a one-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs last month. All have win potential at Keeneland, as does second-time starter #6 Glamorama (6-1), who is returning from a lengthy layoff.

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf)

As outlined earlier, #2 Lion Lake (5-2) is our top choice to win this grass dash. But Kentucky Downs alum #7 Miss Soothsayer (9-2) and first-time starter #3 Dafina (8-1) can’t be excluded from Pick 5 tickets, and the unraced #11 Kilby (7-2) could have a big win chance for hot trainer Wesley Ward if she draws in off the also-eligible list.

Race 5: $40,000 Claiming (six furlongs on dirt)

A dozen fillies and mares have entered this field, but we’ll use only three: New York shipper #10 Romantic Dancer (3-1), $150,000 maiden claiming winner #1 Tempers Fly (4-1), and the class-dropping #3 Tiz Purple (10-1).

• 50-cent Early Pick 5: 1,8 with 1,4,8 with 2,6,7,9 with 2,3,7,11 with 1,3,10 ($144)

Good luck!