Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Carryovers at Colonial Downs and Ellis Park

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, July 9 at Colonial Downs and Ellis Park, including horses to play in a pair of carryovers.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• $6,000 Split the 6 at Saratoga: Opt in and place $10+ single-horse win wagers in the six selected Saratoga races each Thursday, from July 9 through July 30. Winning wagers in each selected race qualify for a split of a $1,000 pool, with $6,000 in total prize pools on the day.
• 8x Rewards Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Opt in and receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each racing day in July.
• Across the Board Boost at Colonial Downs: Opt in to receive a 15% bonus on any winning individual win, place, or show wager, or combination of win, place, and show wagers, at Colonial Downs each racing Thursday in July.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $64 Saratoga Bet and Set Feeder to 7/12 Saratoga BCBC Qualifier
• $50 Ellis Park Challenge
• $200 Ellis Park Qualifier to 7/18 Haskell Handicapping Challenge
• $100 Saratoga Challenge
• $40 Saratoga Challenge
• $80 Charles Town Feeder to 7/10 Saratoga KDBC/NHC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Charles Town Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Colonial Downs: Race 2: Allowance (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:05 p.m. ET)

#6 Our Two Girls (7-5) has shown talent in Kentucky and Arkansas. At Oaklawn Park, she ran third in the six-furlong Purple Martin S., earning an 87 Brisnet Speed rating. At Churchill Downs, she improved to an 88 when finishing third in a 6 1/2-furlong $125,000 allowance optional claimer.

Our Two Girls should find the competition a bit easier at Colonial Downs. None of her Race 2 rivals have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 85 this year, so let’s key Our Two Girls over #3 Raspberry (5-2) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #6 Our Two Girls (7-5)
• #3 Raspberry (5-2)
• #4 Wickedwithbourbon (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 6 with 3

Ellis Park: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:16 p.m. ET)

Unraced two-year-old filly #4 Tambelina (5-2) has put together an eye-catching work tab for trainer Brad Cox, who wins at a 22% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights.

As a daughter of perennial leading sire Into Mischief out of Go for Wand H. (G3) winner Sharp Starr, Tambelina is bred for speed and has the potential to shine from an early age. Let’s place a win bet on the bay filly and key her over #2 Speak for Yourself (9-2) and #8 Maple Ridge (4-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #4 Tambelina (5-2)
• #2 Speak for Yourself (9-2)
• #8 Maple Ridge (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Tambelina
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 2,8 ($10)
  Total: $30

Ellis Park: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 3:12 p.m. ET)

The beautifully bred #7 Talleyrand (5-2), an unraced son of Into Mischief, is a full-brother to 2023 Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Pretty Mischievous and a half-brother to Rachel Alexandra (G2) and Golden Rod (G2) winner Bella Ballerina.

Talleyrand enters off a series of encouraging workouts for Brendan Walsh, the trainer of both Pretty Mischievous and Bella Ballerina. Jockey Ben Curtis (a 21% winner teaming up with Walsh over the last two months) is named to ride, so let’s place a win bet on Talleyrand and call it a day.

Selections

• #7 Talleyrand (5-2)
• #4 Town Man (8-1)
• #9 Implied Open (4-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #7 Talleyrand

Carryover Watch

Ellis Park: Race 1: $1,116 Super High 5 carryover (12:50 p.m. ET)

With only seven horses entered in the Thursday opener at Ellis Park, winning a share of the $1,116 carryover in the $1 Super High 5 shouldn’t be too difficult. There are only 2,520 possible Super High 5 outcomes to analyze.

Race 1 is a $50,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares dashing six furlongs on dirt. #6 Shot At Perfection (2-1) is a logical favorite while dropping down in class. In her last two starts at Keeneland and Churchill Downs, she finished second and third in six-furlong $100,000 maiden claimers, earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 81 and 78.

The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Race 1’s conditions is 79, so Shot At Perfection has a strong chance to win while dropping down in class. We recommend building tickets around Shot At Perfection, counting on her to finish either first or second.

Other logical contenders include #2 Ships Inn (9-2), who finished a respectable fifth in a tough 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Keeneland during the spring; #3 Mancuso (5-2), who is dropping in class after running sixth in a maiden special weight at Churchill Downs; and #4 Quick to Charm (5-2), who was last seen running fifth in a $100,000 maiden claimer at Churchill.

Colonial Downs: Race 3: $2,562 Pick 6 carryover (1:35 p.m. ET)

The 50-cent Old Dominion 6 at Colonial Downs, a Pick 6 with a modest 15% takeout rate, boasts a $2,562 carryover for Thursday’s card.

Winning a share won’t be easy, since the Pick 6 sequence is packed with large and competitive fields.

One relatively straightforward leg to handicap, at least on paper, is Race 5, a $30,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won two races. The 1 1/16-mile grass contest doesn’t contain much pace, which should lend an advantage to #3 Christmas Jones (3-1) and #7 Why (9-2).

Christmas Jones tackled a turf route for the first time in a one-mile $16,000 maiden claimer at Laurel Park last month. She led all the way to dominate by 6 1/2 lengths over Rylnnslookinglucky and Too Loose La Trek, who subsequently recorded next-out wins at the same class level.

The only other runner who appears likely to race up front is Why. She recently employed stalking tactics to trounce a 7 1/2-furlong $25,000 maiden claimer over the Gulfstream Park turf course by 3 1/2 lengths.

We recommend using only Christmas Jones and Why in Race 5, which should help keep Pick 6 ticket costs affordable.

Good luck!