Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Churchill’s $24,292 Super High 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Oct. 30 at Del Mar, along with analysis of rich carryovers at Churchill Downs and Aqueduct.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Churchill Downs Selected Races $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second or third in selected races at Churchill Downs on Thursday.
• 10x Points at Charlottetown Red Shores: Receive 10x rewards points on all wagers (excluding show bets) in all races at Charlottetown Red Shores from Thursday, Oct. 2 through Thursday, Oct. 30.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $100 Belmont at Aqueduct Feeder to 11/15 Churchill Downs Claiming Crown NHC Qualifier
• $50 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $100 Churchill Downs Feeder to 11/8 Churchill Downs CBC Qualifier
• $40 Charles Town Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Del Mar: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 3:30 p.m. ET)

After failing to factor in his debut sprinting on dirt, #3 Medici (5-2) improved significantly when switching to turf for a one-mile maiden special weight at Del Mar. He opened up a sizable lead halfway through the race and maintained his advantage until the final furlong, when he weakened to finish second by one length against next-out Zuma Beach (G3) winner Stark Contrast.

Now Medici is removing blinkers, a 36% winning move for trainer Richard Mandella. If the equipment change helps Medici relax and ration his speed a bit better, he can win his second start for fun.

Let’s bet Medici to win and key him over #2 Luck Lucky (7-2) in an exacta.

Selections

• #3 Medici (5-2)
• #2 Luck Lucky (7-2)
• #5 Kid Charlemagne (9-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #3 Medici
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 2
  Total: $35

Del Mar: Race 7: Let It Ride S. (one mile on turf, 6:30 p.m. ET)

#3 Hiding in Honduras (15-1) was tons the best when debuting in a six-furlong maiden special weight on Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs. He led all the way to dominate by 7 3/4 lengths.

As a half-brother to Cameo Performance, winner of the 1 1/8-mile KY Downs Preview Nashville Derby on turf, Hiding in Honduras has the potential to relish racing one mile over the Del Mar lawn. Throw in the fact trainer Jonathan Thomas wins at a 31% rate with horses trying grass for the first time, and Hiding in Honduras is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #3 Hiding in Honduras (15-1)
• #4 Geometry (5-2)
• #6 Friendly Confines (2-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Hiding in Honduras

Del Mar: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 7:00 p.m. ET)

#3 Low Tox (10-1) is an intriguing first-time starter from the barn of Ryan Hanson, who wins at a respectable 14% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights.

Low Tox is a son of accomplished sprinter/miler Vekoma, who sires a lofty 23% winners from first-time starters. Sharp workouts at Santa Anita (including a bullet five furlongs from the starting gate in :59 3/5) suggest Low Tox has talent, so bet him to win and hope his double-digit odds hold up.

Selections

• #3 Low Tox (10-1)
• #7 Tommy Norris (7-2)
• #9 Mystic Moses (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Low Tox

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $24,292 Super High 5 carryover (1:00 p.m. ET)

If you want to win a share of Thursday’s $24,292 Super High 5 carryover at Churchill Downs, you’ll have to select the top five finishers (in order) in Race 1, a $20,000 claimer taking place over one mile on dirt.

#7 Mo Hope (9-5) is the horse to beat. He’s dropping in class off a pace-pressing fifth-place finish in a $30,000 claimer at Churchill Downs. The five-year-old gelding was right in contention at the eighth pole and was beaten only 4 1/4 lengths at the wire.

Two starts back, Mo Hope ran third in a $30,000 starter allowance at Ellis Park, earning a sharp 87 Brisnet Speed rating. That’s the highest number belonging to any horse entered in Race 1.

We suggest keying Mo Hope on top in the Super High 5. Underneath, emphasize #5 Explosively (2-1). He’s dropping in class off an eighth-place finish in a $30,000 starter allowance at Keeneland. Two starts back, he finished second in a $20,000 claimer at Churchill Downs, beaten only one length while earning an 82 Brisnet Speed rating.

#3 Where’s Randy (10-1) has been out of form as of late, but he’s fast enough to factor on his best day. He may rebound in his first start since being claimed by trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez, a 30% winner with new claiming acquisitions.

#4 Noble Gentleman (6-1) can get involved too. Two starts back, he won a $16,000 claimer at Churchill with an 80 Brisnet Speed rating.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 7 with 5 with 3,4 with 2,3,4,6 with 2,3,4,6 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 7 with 3,4 with 5 with 2,3,4,6 with 2,3,4,6 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 7 with 3,4 with 2,3,4,6 with 5 with 2,3,4,6 ($12)
  Total: $36

Aqueduct: Race 6: $34,909 Pick 6 carryover (2:10 p.m. ET)

If you need a horse to single in the $34,909 Pick 6 carryover at Aqueduct, check out #9 Collect the Data (6-5) in Race 7, a $45,000 allowance optional claimer for New York-bred fillies and mares racing one mile on dirt.

Collect the Data is clearly the fastest entrant from a Brisnet Speed rating standpoint. Only one of her rivals has earned a number higher than 87, that being #3 Midtown Lights (6-1), who has posted ratings as high as 93. But Midtown Lights hasn’t earned a rating higher than 87 in her last eight starts.

In contrast, Collect the Data’s two starts this year have yielded Brisnet Speed ratings of 100 and 92. She earned her 100 when trouncing a six-furlong allowance for New York-breds at Saratoga by seven lengths.

Collect the Data should be tough to catch while stretching out over one mile for hot trainer Chad Brown, a 29% winner at Aqueduct this meet.

Good luck!