Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Keeneland's five-figure carryovers

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Oct. 23 at Keeneland and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including analysis of five-figure carryovers at Keeneland.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Bet $3,000 Get 5% Back on BCBC Seat: Place at least $3,000 in eligible wagers on races from Oct. 1 through Oct. 26 to receive 5% back on your Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge seat purchase through TwinSpires.
• $3,000 Keeneland WIN Ladder: Place a $5+ single-horse win wager on selected races at Keeneland each Thursday and Friday in October to move up the Win Ladder and compete for your share of a $3,000 prize pool.
• 10x Points at Charlottetown Red Shores: Receive 10x rewards points on all wagers (excluding show bets) in all races at Charlottetown Red Shores from Thursday, Oct. 2 through Thursday, Oct. 30.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Belmont at Aqueduct Feeder to 10/29 Churchill Downs BCBC Qualifier
• $50 Keeneland Challenge
• $200 Keeneland Feeder to 10/25 Keeneland BCBC/CBC Qualifier
• $40 Charles Town Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (about seven furlongs on dirt, 1:32 p.m. ET)

Since 2020, trainer Brad Cox has gone 15-for-55 (27%) debuting juveniles in dirt sprints at Keeneland. This bodes well for #6 Leading Change (8-5), a son of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner, who sires a sharp 16% winners from first-time starters.

Leading Change sold for $800,000 as a yearling and has put together a strong work tab in preparation for his debut. On four occasions in recent weeks, he’s breezed five furlongs in 1:01 or faster at Churchill Downs.

Under five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., Leading Change is worthy of a win bet. We’ll also play him over second-time starter #7 Flash of Chaos (7-2) in an exacta.

Selections

• #6 Leading Change (8-5)
• #7 Flash of Chaos (7-2)
• #1 Time for Music (10-1)

Wagers

• $22 to win on #6 Leading Change
• $8 Exacta: 6 with 7
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Allowance (six furlongs on dirt, 2:10 p.m. ET)

This allowance sprint for juvenile fillies who have never won two races is absolutely packed with speed. A fast pace should ensue, possibly setting up #3 Emily’s Joy (8-1) for an upset win.

Emily’s Joy closed from 5 1/2 lengths behind a runaway leader to break her maiden in a five-furlong maiden special weight over the Horseshoe Indianapolis dirt. She’s since competed twice on turf, most notably rallying from midfield to finish second by a neck in a five-furlong allowance at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Trainer Israel Acevedo wins at a 21% rate with horses switching from turf to dirt, so let’s load up with a win bet on Emily’s Joy.

Selections

• #3 Emily’s Joy (8-1)
• #1 Special Sauce (9-5)
• #4 Magic Seeker (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Emily’s Joy

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 2:48 p.m. ET)

Trainer Brad Cox excels when debuting juveniles in dirt routes at Horseshoe Indianapolis, going 11-for-23 (48%) with such starters since 2023. That includes a 3-for-6 (50%) tally this year.

These stats make Cox’s unraced #2 Pattern Approach (8-1) an intriguing win contender. A second Cox trainee, #4 Valiant (5-2), is the morning-line favorite, but he exits an uninspiring fourth-place finish over this track, distance, and class level. The difference in price is arguably too large given Cox’s stellar record debuting unraced juveniles in races like these.

Let’s try a win bet on Pattern Approach and hope his 8-1 morning-line odds hold up.

Selections

• #2 Pattern Approach (8-1)
• #5 Undertaker (7-2)
• #4 Valiant (5-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 Pattern Approach

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 4: $88,865 Pick 6 carryover (2:36 p.m. ET)
Keeneland: Race 9: $42,810 Super High 5 carryover (5:16 p.m. ET)

Keeneland is doubling down on double carryovers for Thursday’s card.

The $1 Pick 6 and $1 Super High 5 have both gone unsolved for two racing days in a row. That’s triggered a Pick 6 carryover worth $88,865 and a Super High 5 prize pool valued at $42,810.

The Pick 6 sequence looks highly competitive. Some bettors will be tempted to reduce ticket costs by singling #4 Sam’s Treasure (6-5) in Race 8, a six-furlong $80,000 allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares. She’s facing only five rivals and looms as a logical win threat based off a runner-up effort over this distance and class level at Churchill Downs last month.

But we can’t recommend singling Sam’s Treasure. #2 Tanya Showers (3-1) and #6 Ervadean (6-1) have both run fast enough to challenge on their best day. Tanya Showers won a $125,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs last year with a 93 Brisnet Speed rating, which matches Sam’s Treasure’s career-best number. And Ervadean posted a 92 when second in a six-furlong $80,000 allowance optional claimer last year at Churchill.

Both Tanya Showers and Ervadean are returning from layoffs. If taking time off helps them deliver peak performances, either one could upset Sam’s Treasure.

The Pick 6 wraps up in Race 9, which is also the race in which the Super High 5 carryover is up for grabs. It’s a maiden special weight for fillies and mares racing one mile on turf, and determining the most likely winner isn’t easy. An overflow field of 16 horses (including four also-eligibles) has entered, and unfortunately, key win contender #16 Lots of Kisses (9-2) is the fourth also-eligible and seems likely to scratch.

If Lots of Kisses draws in, she’s a must-use on Pick 6 and Super High 5 tickets. She exits a sharp runner-up finish in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Kentucky Downs.

#6 Rethink (6-1) finished only 1 1/4 lengths behind Lots of Kisses at Kentucky Downs despite running into a bit of traffic trouble. She may outrun her morning-line odds in her second turf start for trainer Chad Brown, who wins at a powerful 31% rate with horses running long for the first time.

#10 Lady Iva (3-1) ran second in her debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Ellis Park, coming home half a length ahead of Lots of Kisses. We’ll forgive Lady Iva’s subsequent sixth-place finish racing 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs since she had no room to run for much of the homestretch. She’s bred to thrive running long and has a strong chance to win if she gets a clean trip at Keeneland.

#2 Auntie (5-1) is another viable contender. She was beaten only a neck when second in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Kentucky Downs last month, her first start outside of California.

Don’t forget to mix in #8 The Palace Girl (8-1) as well. The German-bred filly has only run once, finishing a close second against 15 rivals in a seven-furlong dash in Ireland. She’s adding Lasix for her North American debut and could factor at a price under Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez.

Good luck!