Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Keeneland’s $54,038 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, April 22 at Keeneland and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including horses to play in Keeneland’s $54,038 Pick 6 carryover.

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Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $66 Keeneland Bet and Set Feeder to 5/1 Kentucky Oaks Betting Challenge
• $40 Keeneland Challenge
• $100 Keeneland Challenge
• $100 Keeneland Feeder to 4/24 Keeneland Bonus Feeder
• $200 Keeneland Feeder to 4/25 Churchill Downs KDBC Qualifier
• $40 Evangeline Downs Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:32 p.m. ET)

#5 Sanchoo (8-5) sold for $425,000 as a yearling and looks like a promising prospect. A half-sister to juvenile stakes winner Littlestitious, Sanchoo has shown speed in training, most notably breezing a bullet three furlongs from the Keeneland starting gate in :35 4/5.

Sanchoo is trained by Wesley Ward, who dominates these early-season juvenile sprints at Keeneland. She looks ready to win on debut, so let’s key her over #7 Ruiva (9-2) and #10 Express Success (4-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #5 Sanchoo (8-5)
• #7 Ruiva (9-2)
• #10 Express Success (4-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 5 with 7,10 ($30)

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#4 Rioja Alta (4-1) is a first-time starter from the hot barn of Anthony Cunningham, who wins at a 31% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights.

Rioja Alta has shown speed in the mornings at Horseshoe Indianapolis, breezing a bullet half-mile from the starting gate in :47 and a bullet three furlongs in :34 2/5. If his 4-1 morning-line odds hold up, Rioja Alta is worthy of a win bet, and we’ll also single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #4 Rioja Alta (4-1)
• #9 El Payasito (7-2)
• #7 Mikestrumpcard (5-1)

Wagers

• $24 to win on #4 Rioja Alta
• $6 Double: 4 with 7
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 5:16 p.m. ET)

#7 Stuck in Park (6-1) is a first-time starter conditioned by hot trainer Randy Klopp, a 24% winner to start the Horseshoe Indianapolis meet.

Stuck in Park enters off fast workouts at Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a bullet five furlongs from the starting gate in :58 2/5. He’s a son of talented sprinter Army Mule (who sires a sharp 18% winners from first-time starters), so all signs suggest Stuck in Park is sitting on a competitive debut.

At 6-1, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #7 Stuck in Park (6-1)
• #6 Basil (7-2)
• #2 Audubon Bay (10-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #7 Stuck in Park

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 3: $54,038 Pick 6 carryover (2:04 p.m. ET)

If you want to win a share of Wednesday’s enticing $54,038 carryover in the $1 Pick 6 at Keeneland, you’ll have to solve a challenging sequence.

The Pick 6 spans Races 3-8 and includes 66 horses (averaging 11 per race) and 1,300,992 possible outcomes before scratches. Nine of the horses are also-eligibles, so the Pick 6 will simplify somewhat after scratches, but the fields look competitive across the board. Narrowing down the contenders in each race isn’t easy.

That said, a couple legs of the Pick 6 appear relatively straightforward to handicap.

Race 5 is a $30,000 maiden claimer for three-year-olds and older horses sprinting six furlongs on dirt. Among the experienced horses, #1 Editor (5-2) looks like the one to beat. After failing to factor in his debut on turf, Editor switched to dirt for a six-furlong $50,000 maiden optional claimer at Fair Grounds last month. After dueling for the lead with eventual winner General Graham, Editor stayed on to finish second with an 83 Brisnet Speed rating.

None of the other horses entered in Race 5 have earned a Brisnet Speed rating as high as 83, and Editor’s form was flattered when General Graham returned to win a $50,000 starter allowance at Keeneland. But while Editor looks formidable in Race 5, first-time starter #10 Jack Charles (6-1) could give him a run for first prize.

A four-year-old son of Pinatubo, Jack Charles enters off a promising work tab, and he’s trained by Wesley Ward, a 26% winner at Keeneland this meet. Over the last five years, Ward has debuted two older horses on dirt at Keeneland. One finished first and the other ran second, suggesting Jack Charles will likewise produce a competitive debut.

Moving on, Race 7 is a $100,000 allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt. Only six horses have entered, and we recommend using two: #3 Lynn’s Milky Way (9-5) and #6 Evanescence (5-2).

Lynn’s Milky Way won back-to-back allowance optional claimers during the winter at Gulfstream Park before tiring to finish fourth in the 6 1/2-furlong Hurricane Bertie (G3) over the same track. In the Hurricane Bertie, she raced close to the inside (which was often a disadvantage in dirt races through the winter at Gulfstream) and did so while dueling for the lead with heavy favorite and eventual winner R Disaster.

Under the circumstances, Lynn’s Milky’s Way defeat doesn’t look so bad. She was beaten only one length for second place and has every chance to rebound at Keeneland.

Still, Evanescence is worth using as backup. She’s cracked the trifecta three times at the stakes level, including in the Eight Belles (G2), and last year she trounced a $125,000 allowance optional claimer at Keeneland by 3 1/2 lengths. Finishing third was none other than Lynn’s Milky Way.

Good luck!