Woodbine: A live longshot for Early Pick 5 carryover on King's Plate Day

August 20th, 2023

Sunday is King’s Plate Day at Woodbine, and bettors are advised to tune in well in advance of the feature race. The 20-cent Pick 5 starting in Race 2 features a non-jackpot carryover worth CAD $81,774 (USD $60,128.)

First post time is 12:55 p.m. ET, but the most interesting leg of the sequence is perhaps Race 6, the closing leg of the Pick 5. It’s the C$125,000 Catch a Glimpse S. for two-year-old fillies sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on turf, and the 11-horse field features plenty of possible win contenders.

One logical threat is #9 Airosa (5-1), who led by daylight at every call of a maiden special weight over this course and distance last month. The daughter of Uncle Mo won by two lengths and posted an 85 Brisnet Speed rating, tied for the highest number belonging to any filly in the Catch a Glimpse field.

But if you like Airosa (and we do), you have to respect #3 Golden Canary (20-1) at four times the price. Conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse, Golden Canary debuted against Airosa and gamely chased the winner every step of the way to finish second. Golden Canary was never more than three lengths behind (noteworthy since Airosa’s quick pace strung the field out over nearly 16 lengths after half a mile), and Golden Canary actually gained a length on Airosa through the final furlong.

That was a deceptively good try from Golden Canary, who has worked well since then. If she moves forward at all in her second start, Golden Canary can vie for victory at a big price. The fact she’ll be ridden by jockey Sahin Civaci (a 30% winner teaming up with Casse over the last two months) adds to the appeal.

Golden Canary is well worth including in the Pick 5, and we also recommend placing a $10 win bet on this 20-1 longshot. Thanks to the King’s Plate Weekend $10 Money Back promotion from TwinSpires, we can receive a refund if she settles for second place.

Bonus carryover: $2,137 Super High 5 at Ellis Park (12:45 p.m. ET)

No one hit the $1 Super High 5 in the final race on Saturday at Ellis Park, which means there’s a $2,137 non-jackpot carryover up for grabs in Sunday’s opening race.

Race 1 is a $50,000 maiden claimer for two-year-old fillies sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. None of the experienced runners in the nine-horse field have posted a Brisnet Speed rating within shouting range of the par winning number (74) for these conditions, so the race looks ripe for conquest by a first-time starter.

We’ll favor #6 Sweet Guitar (5-1). A daughter of Star Guitar (who sires a solid 12% winners from first-time starters), Sweet Guitar is trained by Andrew McKeever, who has gone 2-for-3 (67%) at Ellis Park this meet.

Only once in the past five years has McKeever debuted a juvenile in a turf sprint at Ellis, and that youngster was a winner. Sweet Guitar has put together a decent work tab and will be ridden by Joe Talamo (a 33% winner teaming up with McKeever over the past two months), so we recommend keying Sweet Guitar on top in the Super High 5.

Good luck!