Belmont Park: Analyzing the $38,017 Pick 6 carryover

May 21st, 2023

The Sunday card at Belmont Park brings a hefty $38,017 carryover in the $1 Pick 6. If you want to win a share of the non-jackpot prize pool, you’ll have to decipher a difficult sequence.

The Pick 6 gets underway in Race 4 (post time 2:32 p.m. ET) and contains 66 horses and 1,411,200 possible outcomes before scratches. That’s a lot of horses (and combinations), but it’s worth noting 11 of those horses are main-track-only entrants who figure to scratch. Viewed through this lens, there will be a maximum of 55 horses and 430,080 possible outcomes to analyze, which is significantly more manageable.

Still, it would be nice to find a single to reduce ticket complexity and cost. At first glance, Race 5 (a $50,000 claimer taking place over one mile on dirt) seems like a good spot to look since it’s drawn only seven entries and features a clear morning line favorite in the form of #3 Business Model (6-5). But while Business Model has been facing tougher competition—even running fourth in the Challenger (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs two starts back—he’s a deep closer meeting a field without a ton of pace on paper, so Business Model may find himself at a tactical disadvantage.

#6 Back Ring Luck (5-1), exiting a pair of allowance contests at Oaklawn Park, is a speedier alternative for red-hot trainer David Jacobson, who has compiled a 9-3-1-3 (33%) record at Belmont this meet. #7 Milton the Monster (7-2) is also eligible to factor after being claimed for $40,000 by trainer Rob Atras, a 26% winner with new claiming acquisitions.

A sounder single can be found in Race 9, a seven-furlong maiden special weight for New York-bred fillies and mares. The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for this type of race is 85, a number #2 Danseur d’Oro (2-1) exceeded when finishing second by a nose in a six-furlong sprint over this class level at Aqueduct last month.

Danseur d’Oro has tactical speed and figures to enjoy a favorable trip under hot jockey Flavien Prat, who has gone 5-for-25 (20%) this meet. Danseur d’Oro has already defeated key rival #3 Foxy Cara (4-1), and last year she ran third in her debut against males at Belmont Park, finishing behind future Funny Cide S. winner and Sanford (G3) third-place finisher Andiamo a Firenze. Any way you slice it, Danseur d’Oro’s credentials are formidable, and she’s a logical single to conclude the Pick 6.

Good luck!