Early look at storylines for 2025 Breeders’ Cup: Championships Saturday

Continued from Vol. 1 on Breeders' Cup milestones and storylines for Future Stars Friday

Classic

For defending champion Sierra Leone to join Hall of Famer Tiznow as a two-time Classic (G1) hero, he’ll have to beat not only the re-opposing placegetters from 2024, Fierceness and Japan’s Forever Young. Also standing in his way is an exceptional group of three-year-olds, led by probable Classic favorite Sovereignty, archrival Journalism, the still-developing Baeza, and Baffert’s late-blooming Nevada Beach. 

Sovereignty is already a historical rarity for sweeping the Kentucky Derby (G1), Belmont (G1), and Travers (G1). If the Bill Mott colt conquers older foes here, he would wrap up Horse of the Year honors for an unprecedented feat. No horse has won those three majors plus the Classic. The only other Derby/Belmont/Travers winner in the Breeders’ Cup era, Thunder Gulch (1995), was injured and retired before the Classic. 

Fierceness and Forever Young are likewise attempting unprecedented feats of their own. If Fierceness can go one better, he’d become the first Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) champion to win another Breeders’ Cup race. A more palatable pace scenario than last year’s Classic could be all he needs. Fierceness is one of four potential starters for Todd Pletcher, whose other leading light, Mindframe, must overcome a prep snafu that was no fault of his own. 

Forever Young, agonizingly close when third in the 2024 Kentucky Derby, remains a top threat to give Japan its first Classic. He arrives arguably fresher than he was a year ago, and a better post position this time would help him to work out a more favorable trip. His trainer, Yoshito Yahagi, is the only Japanese horseman to win at the Breeders’ Cup so far, scoring victories in two other races during the 2021 Championships at Del Mar.

Turf

If Minnie Hauk ships in for seven-time Turf (G1) winner Aidan O’Brien, the outstanding Coolmore filly may have to run a gauntlet of Godolphin rivals. At least Minnie Hauk exits the most historically productive race for the Turf, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1), where she was an excellent runner-up.

Godolphin globetrotter Rebel’s Romance will try to become the first three-time Turf winner. The Charlie Appleby veteran would also make history as the first male to turn a Breeders’ Cup triple, after queens Goldikova and Beholder. 

Yet Godolphin might throw the proverbial kitchen sink at the Turf. John and Thady Gosden’s Ombudsman, the world’s top-rated horse, has been freshened after his high summer heroics, with a view toward doubling up in Saturday’s Champion (G1) at Ascot and the Breeders’ Cup. Also under consideration for Godolphin are Appleby’s improving El Cordobes and Andre Fabre’s Cualificar (an Arc also-ran). 

The international bench goes even deeper, including Goliath and a few dark horses, making it difficult for a sparse home team to reverse the overwhelming trends in favor of the raiders.

Distaff

In the aftermath of Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna’s shocker in the Spinster (G1), and subsequent abdication, the burning question is who will step up to claim her Distaff (G1) crown. 

Several older combatants have claims. Dorth Vader might have gutted Thorpedo Anna when forcing her all the way to the wire in the Personal Ensign (G1) last out. Rested since that Saratoga slugfest, Dorth Vader will try to avoid regressing herself. 

Bob Baffert’s streaking Seismic Beauty is the local hope after the defection of stablemate Cavalieri, while Spinster surprise Gin Gin and third-placer Scylla are also obvious players. Scylla is out of champion Close Hatches, the runner-up to Beholder in the 2013 Distaff.

At the same time, the Distaff should clarify the divisional picture among the three-year-old fillies, and Spinster near-misser Nitrogen is in pole position to clinch the title. Yet Gin Gin’s red-hot trainer, Brendan Walsh, also has an ultra-progressive sophomore in Clicquot. 

Although Argentine “Win and You’re In” heroine Sarawak Rim appears up against it after changing hemispheres only recently, she furnishes an important storyline. She is the last hurrah for retiring trainer Ignacio Correas, who took over her conditioning when she arrived stateside. Correas has finely nurtured South American imports before, including 2019 Distaff winner Blue Prize, but over a much longer time frame to acclimate. 

Mile

Appleby had won three straight runnings of this race until Notable Speech was third as the favorite last year, succumbing to the now-retired More Than Looks and local star Johannes. Notable Speech returns as a stronger four-year-old, coming off a much more dynamic prep in the Woodbine Mile (G1), and is eligible to put up a stiffer fight this time around. 

The potent Juddmonte operation could send top sophomore miler Field of Gold, pending his return in Saturday’s Queen Elizabeth II (G1) on British Champions Day. Either way, Juddmonte will still have a key contender in fellow three-year-old Jonquil, who was an eye-catching fourth (despite a terrible post) in his U.S. debut in the Coolmore Turf Mile (G1). 

The Mile promises to be the most internationally eclectic race of the Championships, with “Win and You’re In” hopes from as far afield as South Africa (One Stripe) and Chile (Gran Oriente), as well as Japan and Europe. The foreign legion is still assembling, possibly including the French, and the Ballydoyle squad is to be determined following the withdrawal of Diego Velazquez. 

The home team, which historically fares better in the Mile than the Turf, has several capable chances beyond Johannes. Formidable Man can fight Johannes for local bragging rights, with his 6-for-6 mark at Del Mar, and once-beaten Rhetorical proved his class in the Coolmore Turf Mile. 

Dirt Mile

Lightly-raced but uber-talented Nysos might well have been in the Classic if not for a setback that ruled him out of the Pacific Classic (G1). Instead, the Baffert celebrity lands in the deepest-ever running of this race, featuring 2024 Kentucky Derby upsetter Mystik Dan, 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic romper White Abarrio, and 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion Citizen Bull. With such historically significant contenders, it’s no wonder that the reigning titleholder, Full Serrano, could get overlooked again. 

Mystik Dan isn’t the first Derby winner to try the Dirt Mile (G1). Mine That Bird, the 2009 Derby stunner, was long off form when he was 10th in the Dirt Mile the following year. Mystik Dan fans can take heart that there’s no parallel between them here.

Citizen Bull, a younger stablemate of Nysos, gives Baffert a one-two punch. There’s also precedent for a reigning Juvenile champion to decamp to a spot other than the Classic. It’s not a recipe for success, however, with the best results being Gilded Time’s heroic third in the 1993 Sprint off a year-long layoff, and Midshipman’s third in the 2009 Dirt Mile. 

Midshipman turns up here, vicariously, as the sire of South American import Touch of Destiny. The first Uruguayan-bred to compete in the Breeders’ Cup, he brings a perfect record into his U.S. premiere for trainer Michael McCarthy. 

White Abarrio is breaking new ground in another way. He’s the first Classic hero to attempt to win a different race in a subsequent renewal of the Championships.

If Full Serrano manages to fend off all comers, he’d emulate Goldencents (2013-2014) and Cody’s Wish (2022-23) as repeat winners. 

Sprint

Defending champion Straight No Chaser attempts to equal the feat of repeat winners Midnight Lute (2007-08), Roy H (2017-18), and Elite Power (2022-23). But he’ll have to rebound from his prep loss to Imagination, representing five-time Sprint winner Baffert, and Dr. Venkman. Last year’s respective second and third, Bentornato and Mullikin, along with Wesley Ward’s veteran Nakatomi, the third-placer from 2023, are all back in the fray. 

An intriguing wildcard is Japanese-based sophomore American Stage, a stablemate of Classic contender Forever Young. Females used to factor in this race before getting a sprint of their own, and according to Daily Racing Form, Kopion has emerged as a fascinating possibility to roll back the clock. 

Filly & Mare Sprint

Kopion’s potential rerouting to the Sprint would ease the path for her stablemate, Beholder’s daughter Tamara, in the distaffers’ version. Trained like her dam by Richard Mandella for Spendthrift Farm, the oft-sidelined Tamara instantly became a Breeders’ Cup storyline when dominating her comeback. She’ll try to put Beholder in the very exclusive club of Breeders’ Cup winners who foaled a Breeders’ Cup winner. 

The original mother-child tandem was Personal Ensign (1988) and My Flag (1995), which established a three-generation sequence by producing Storm Flag Flying (2002). The others are Hollywood Wildcat (1993) and son War Chant (2000), and most recently, Shared Account (2010) and daughter Sharing (2019).

Baffert won’t mind if Kopion changes targets, since his classy trio of Hope Road, Richi, and Splendora have all been beaten by her. Hope Road hopes to land the prize that eluded her dam, Marley’s Freedom, who was fourth as the Baffert-trained favorite in 2018. 

Contenders wanting to turn the page on last year’s disappointments include Vahva (a lackluster eighth here) and Sweet Azteca (who missed the 2024 edition after a flop in her last prep). In contrast, Saffie Joseph Jr. hopes that history repeats, as his Haulin Ice stamped her ticket the same way that his 2024 upsetter, Soul of an Angel, did, in the Princess Rooney (G3). 

Filly & Mare Turf

Cinderella’s Dream, an unlucky runner-up here a year ago, has had a revenge mission in her sights all season for Appleby. Unlike 2024, when she spent the heart of her campaign stateside, the Godolphin homebred has raced abroad this term with mixed results. 

Stablemate Diamond Rain arrives on the upswing, after nearly catching She Feels Pretty in the E.P. Taylor (G1). That Woodbine feature was the stepping stone of choice for 2024 Filly & Mare Turf (G1) heroine Moira. Moved from the fall to Aug. 16 this year, the E.P. Taylor could be the key piece of the North American form. 

She Feels Pretty, a head away from a six-race winning spree, ranks as the leading U.S. contender for Cherie DeVaux. Her only loss this term came at the hands of now-retired Excellent Truth, who would have been a prime threat for four-time Filly & Mare Turf winner Brown. Yet the Brown barn is so well stocked that he immediately found a replacement in fellow Resolute acquisition Village Voice. 

Although the Flower Bowl (G2) historically has served as the most informative domestic guide, it hasn’t had the same degree of impact since its transfer to Saratoga four years ago. The Clement-trained Bellezza has the right profile to bring it back into the limelight. 

A few of the international possibles competed over Arc weekend. See the Fire and Wemightakedlongway were beaten narrowly in the Prix de l’Opera (G1), a pointer to this race, while Gezora was unplaced versus older males in the Arc itself. 

Turf Sprint

Motorious hopes that the third time’s the charm in this race, after a stymied fifth as the favorite in 2023 and a near-miss second in 2024. Yet other angles abound. 

Females have excelled here, and last year’s close third, Ag Bullet, tops the list of distaffers aspiring to join the honor roll. The brilliant Shisospicy aims to make history as the first three-year-old filly to beat males in the Turf Sprint (G1). 

Nobals, the 2023 upsetter, has run himself back into the picture. If he can emulate Mizdirection (2012-13) and Stormy Liberal (2017-18) as a two-time winner, Nobals would be the first in non-consecutive years. 

Two of the past four winners were graduates of the prior year’s Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1). Arizona Blaze, runner-up in the 2024 Juvenile Turf Sprint, is the leading alum to enhance the trend. He’s also among the boatload of international contenders, including a Japanese delegation.