Carryovers: Analyzing the $937 Fair Grounds Pick 6 and $4,150 Turfway Super High 5

March 11th, 2023

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares horses to play in a pair of non-jackpot carryovers on Saturday at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park.

Fair Grounds, Race 4: $937 Pick 6 carryover (3:59 p.m. ET)

If you’re planning to play Saturday’s $1 Pick 6 at Fair Grounds, you’ll be happy to hear the sequence features a $937 carryover. It’s not the biggest prize pool, but it does add value to the betting proposition.

It’s always helpful to find a trustworthy single when betting Pick 6s. Fortunately, Saturday’s sequence is ready to oblige with #1 Chop Chop (9-5) in Race 8, the Allen Black Cat LaCombe Memorial for three-year-old fillies racing about one mile on turf.

You might be asking yourself, what is Chop Chop doing competing on turf? Isn’t she a prominent Road to the Kentucky Oaks participant? True, Chop Chop’s dirt exploits include runner-up finishes in the Alcibiades (G1) and Silverbulletday S. plus starts in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) and Rachel Alexandra (G2).

But both of Chop Chop’s victories have come on turf. She opened her career with pace-tracking victories in an Ellis Park maiden special weight and the Juvenile Fillies S. at Kentucky Downs. You can make a fair case that Chop Chop is better over turf than dirt, so returning to turf for the Allen Black Cat LaCombe Memorial can trigger a strong performance. Throw in the fact she’ll be racing on Lasix for the first time (a 38% winning move for red-hot trainer Brad Cox), and Chop Chop looms as a viable single.

Turfway Park, Race 9: $4,150 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

If you want to win a share of the $4,150 carryover up for grabs in Saturday’s $1 Super High 5 at Turfway Park, you had better be skilled at handicapping unraced horses.

The prize pool is on the table in Race 9, a maiden special weight for three-year-olds sprinting six furlongs on Tapeta. An overflow field of 14 horses (including two also-eligibles) has been entered, and 10 of the 12 horses in the main body of the field are first-time starters.

This is where trainer and sire stats come into play, and #1 Gold Ghost (3-1) appears to have the best angles in his corner. He’s a son of Uncle Mo (who sires a lofty 15% debut winners) out of Fiftyshadesofgold (an early-maturing debut winner who won three stakes), and he’s trained by Wesley Ward, a 37% winner at Turfway since Nov. 30.

Ward’s recent Turfway record includes a stellar 6-for-13 (46%) tally with first-time starters. Throw in the fact Gold Ghost breezed a fast five furlongs in :59 4/5 last Saturday, and Gold Ghost is worth keying on top in the Super High 5.

Good luck!