Ellis Park: How to bet the $2,899 Super High 5 carryover
No one hit the $1 Super High 5 on Friday at Ellis Park, which means there’s a $2,899 carryover up for grabs when racing continues at the Kentucky oval on Saturday.
The prize pool is available to chase bright and early in Race 1 (post time 12:45 p.m. ET), a $10,000 claimer taking place over one mile on dirt. Seven horses have been entered, which means bettors have only 2,520 possible Super High 5 outcomes to analyze. In other words, it should be winnable on a modest budget.
The morning line favorite is #5 Mad Adam (9-5), a four-year-old gelding exiting a runner-up finish in a $10,000 claimer over this track and distance. In his first start since being claimed by trainer Tom Amoss, Mad Adam settled in fifth position behind an unremarkable pace, then rallied down the homestretch to finish second against a pace-tracking winner.
Mad Adam’s last three Brisnet Speed ratings are 77, 74, and 77, consistent numbers that stamp him as a logical contender against Saturday’s field. But he’s not a Brisnet Speed rating standout; #1 River Boy (3-1), for example, threw down an 81 when wiring a $10,000 claimer over this track and class level on June 15.
There’s something exciting about betting late-running Thoroughbreds and cheering for them to catch up down the homestretch, but they’re generally at a disadvantage against rivals with superior early speed. @Brisnet Pace ratings can help you find them ⤵️ https://t.co/B5d1WFNkdE— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) November 15, 2022
That effort marked River Boy’s first start since being claimed by trainer Alexis Claire, and River Boy left no doubt about his superiority, carving out a quick pace before powering clear to win by 3 1/2 lengths. Claire strikes at a 23% rate with last-out winners, and the rail post is producing 22% winners in dirt miles at Ellis Park, so River Boy has every chance to steal Saturday’s contest in gate-to-wire fashion.
So how should we bet the Super High 5? Let’s take a stand and key River Boy on top while counting on Mad Adam to finish either second or third. For the remaining slots, we’ll use #3 Primer Dimer (9-2), #4 Santa Cruiser (8-1), #6 Pico d’Oro (6-1), and #7 Commander Carl (5-1) in equal strength.
- $1 Super High 5: 1 with 5 with 3,4,6,7 with 3,4,6,7 with 3,4,6,7 ($24)
- $1 Super High 5: 1 with 3,4,6,7 with 5 with 3,4,6,7 with 3,4,6,7 ($24)