Emerald Downs: Who to single in the low-takeout $7,814 Pick 6 carryover

May 25th, 2024

Pick 6 fans are strongly advised to check out Saturday’s $7,814 Pick 6 carryover at Emerald Downs. There are several good reasons to play along:

  1. It’s a non-jackpot wager awarding a share of the carryover to all bettors who assemble winning tickets.
  2. The minimum bet amount is only 50 cents, half of the $1 amount typical for many non-jackpot Pick 6 wagers.
  3. Bettors who select five out of six winners earn consolation payoffs.
  4. The takeout rate is an ultra-low 8%!

Saturday’s Pick 6 sequence gets underway in Race 3 (post time 5:25 p.m. ET), a $5,000 claimer taking place over six furlongs on dirt. With only six horses in the entries, it’s an ideal race in which to seek a single to build tickets around.

In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, #1 Pistol Power (3-1) owns the best recent ratings. He’s thrown down figures of 87, 82, and 73 in his last three starts at Emerald Downs, all of which were top-two finishes against tougher competition than he’ll face on Saturday.

But “best recent ratings” is relative. Pistol Power hasn’t run in 11 months, and trainer Rigoberto Velasquez hasn’t won with his last 29 horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more. Pistol Power may need a race off the layoff, and it’s worth noting his 87 and 82 Brisnet Speed ratings were earned in route races, not in sprints like the one he’ll tackle on Saturday.

That’s why morning line favorite #2 Surprise Fashion (5-2) is a viable single. He’s cracked the trifecta in his last three starts sprinting against $4,000 claiming company at Turf Paradise, earning respectable Brisnet Speed ratings of 74, 76, and 75.

Surprise Fashion was claimed out of his latest race by trainer Justin Evans, a 23% winner with new claiming acquisitions. Evans is off to a hot start at Emerald Downs this meet, going 4-for-11 (36%), and it’s worth noting all four of his winners were exiting races in April at Turf Paradise, just like Surprise Fashion.

Couple these lofty win percentages with Pistol Power’s possible vulnerability off the layoff, and Surprise Fashion is a compelling single to start the Pick 6.

Good luck!