Top 12 storylines for 2026 Kentucky Derby

As America’s iconic race, the Kentucky Derby (G1) invariably gives rise to compelling, intriguing, and occasionally sentimental storylines.

Let’s look at the main themes surrounding the 152nd edition of the Churchill Downs classic.

Renegade on the rail for Repole, Irad

Mike Repole’s tale of Derby woe stretches over 15 years, particularly the crushing scratches of juvenile champions Uncle Mo (2011) and Forte (2023). His fortunes promised to revive with this spring’s smashing Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Renegade. Co-owned in partnership with breeders Robert and Lawana Low, Renegade romped to Derby favoritism once familiar rival Paladin was ruled out by injury. 

Renegade also received a vote of confidence from five-time Eclipse Award-winning rider Irad Ortiz Jr., who is likewise still seeking his first Derby trophy. Ortiz chose him over other major contenders, Commandment and Further Ado.

But the rosy scenario was complicated when Renegade drew the rail. It’s been 40 years since the last Derby winner broke from post 1, Ferdinand (1986). On the plus side, the 20-horse starting gate that was instituted in 2020 has ameliorated the challenge to some degree, and Renegade has the kind of explosive kick to work out a trip. 

If Renegade can furnish a Derby breakthrough for Repole and Ortiz, he’d also propel Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher into a tie for third on the all-time list. A two-time Derby winner, courtesy of Super Saver (2010) and Always Dreaming (2017), Pletcher would join the legendary “Sunny Jim” Fitzsimmons and Max Hirsch with a third Derby victory.

Leading sire Into Mischief on verge of a new Derby record

Renegade would also lift perennial leading sire Into Mischief to a record fourth Derby victory, but the Spendthrift patriarch does not need to rely on him alone. Into Mischief has another leading contender in Florida Derby (G1) hero Commandment, as well as San Felipe (G2) winner Potente.

Although Into Mischief’s first two Derby winners came with asterisks – Authentic in the pandemic-delayed 2020 Derby, and Mandaloun via disqualification in 2021 – there was no such wrinkle to the decisive score by Horse of the Year Sovereignty on the first Saturday in May 2025. That third win put Into Mischief alongside 19th-century stallions Virgil and Falsetto, and 20th-century titans *Sir Gallahad III and Bull Lea, and a fourth would be unprecedented.

Riley Mott makes Derby debut against father Bill 

Riley Mott has only been training in his own right for about 3 1/2 years, but the son of Hall of Famer Bill Mott has made a terrific splash already. Riley makes his Derby debut with two contenders, Virginia Derby hero Incredibolt and Wood Memorial (G2) upsetter Albus. But the elder Mott fields a top chance of his own in Chief Wallabee, who adds blinkers after near-misses in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Florida Derby. 

If the headgear does the trick for Chief Wallabee, he could conjure up an historic back-to-back success for Mott and jockey Junior Alvarado. The last trainer/jockey tandem to win consecutive runnings of the Derby was none other than Lucien Laurin and Ron Turcotte with Riva Ridge (1972) and Secretariat (1973). Moreover, Bill Mott would have a third Derby win overall, tying Hirsch and Fitzsimmons on the trainers’ list.

The father-and-son rivalry is a Derby rarity, too. According to the Derby media team, the only prior instance came in 1964, when Red Wingfield and son Bobby sent out Dandy K. (eighth) and Wil Rad (10th). 

Adding more to the family atmosphere are their respective connections. Chief Wallabee is a homebred for Mike and Katherine Ball of Donamire Farm. Riley’s Incredibolt and Albus both race for Pin Oak Stud, now operated by the Bernhard family. This is a poignant Derby premiere for them, after the sudden loss of Jim Bernhard last November.

Buzz intensifies around The Puma as potential Mage 2.0

An unraced two-year-old trained by Gustavo Delgado for an ownership group including OGMA Investments, and ridden by Javier Castellano, bursts onto the scene in Florida and goes on to win the Derby. That was the basic plot for Mage in 2023, and The Puma is doing his best version of a redux.

Similarly sourced by Ramiro Restrepo’s Marquee Bloodstock, The Puma has a few differences from Mage. The Puma was runner-up in his unveiling (to Chief Wallabee), not a flashy winner on a big day at Gulfstream Park. But The Puma was able to make an extra start this spring, giving him four outings prior to Louisville. He also achieved a stakes victory in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) before mirroring Mage with an excellent second in the Florida Derby. 

The Puma has gotten even more buzz this week, thanks to additional owners coming on board. Michael Iavarone, best known for his association with 2008 Derby and Preakness (G1) champion Big Brown, was the headliner for buying into the colt, until rumors began to swirl that Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce are also involved. 

Uncharacteristic play by Brown for “Emerging” colt

Chad Brown came agonizingly close to a Derby win with Sierra Leone in 2024. Once his pupil with a similar profile, Paladin, was knocked off the trail, Brown appeared to lose his best chance of 2026. Then he came up with a few other qualifiers on points. 

But the high-percentage trainer is not one for Derby fever, and his typical modus operandi is to give lightly-raced types more time to develop rather than pitch them into the cauldron on the first Saturday in May. In keeping with his pattern, he voluntarily opted to remove Iron Honor and Ottinho from the mix.

With that context, it’s very telling that Brown is letting the 2-for-2 Emerging Market take his chance in Louisville. The same point applies to his owner, the ultra-realistic hedge fund maestro Seth Klarman of Klaravich Stables. 

Emerging Market has shown poise and professionalism belying his inexperience, and his hard-fought win in the Louisiana Derby (G2) proved that he could outduel a seasoned opponent in Pavlovian. Drawn in post 15 with Flavien Prat, whose Derby win came via disqualification aboard Mott’s Country House (2019), Emerging Market could reward the bold move from usually conservative connections.

Cox double-handed in pursuit of a Derby win on the day

Louisville native Brad Cox has been loaded for bear on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, training winners of three of the most lucrative final preps – Commandment, Blue Grass (G1) romper Further Ado, and Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) scorer Fulleffort. But Fulleffort was diagnosed with a bone chip in his left hind ankle, forcing him out of Derby 152. Cox is still double-handed with the dynamic duo proven on dirt. 

Cox is a Derby winner as a matter of historical record. Yet his Mandaloun was awarded the victory long after raceday, following the adjudication of the positive test by first-past-the-post Medina Spirit. An actual win on the racetrack would be far more meaningful and would warrant a proper hometown celebration of the trainer who grew up near Churchill Downs. 

Ironically, the jockeys aboard Further Ado and Commandment – Hall of Famer John Velazquez and Luis Saez, respectively – both lost an apparent Derby winner to disqualification. 

Saez guided Maximum Security to a front-running score in the 2019 Derby, only to be demoted for interference rounding the far turn. He now picks up the ride on a colt with a contrasting running style, Commandment, in hopes of gaining an official win. 

Velazquez would have won his fourth Derby aboard Medina Spirit. If Further Ado can put him back in the winner’s circle for an official number four, Velazquez would join Bill Shoemaker in a joint second in the record book. 

So Happy the sentimental hope for Glatt, Smith

Trainer Mark Glatt makes his first Derby appearance at a trying time, mourning the loss of his wife, Dena, who just passed away in February. In the circumstances, the name of his contender, So Happy, can come across as unfortunate. At the same time, connections keenly felt Dena’s presence when So Happy lifted late to win the Santa Anita Derby (G1), and the colt is actually providing a measure of consolation amid the grief. 

So Happy could also make Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith the oldest Derby-winning jockey. At 59 years of age, he’s five years older than record-holder Shoemaker, who was 54 when he guided Ferdinand (1986). Smith, as a two-time Derby winner with Giacomo (2005) and Triple Crown sweeper Justify (2018), would move up the all-time list with a third trophy. 

At any rate, Smith already owns the record for most Derby rides. If So Happy just runs, he’d extend Smith’s mark to 29. Shoemaker had 26. Velazquez is his active pursuer, with Further Ado becoming his 27th Derby mount.

DeVaux the latest female trainer in Derby annals

Cherie DeVaux arrives on the Derby scene with the blueblood Golden Tempo, a sneaky third in the Louisiana Derby. DeVaux cannot be reduced to the novelty category of “female trainer,” since she’s reached the highest levels of the profession, regardless of gender. Formerly known for her time as an assistant to Brown, DeVaux has made a name for herself by developing a champion (She Feels Pretty) and Breeders’ Cup winner (More Than Looks) among her seven-figure earners. 

Nevertheless, the historical angle of women in the Derby is unavoidable. Only 18 Derby starters have been trained by women, and three have placed. Shelley Riley’s Casual Lies came closest to glory when runner-up in 1992, while Kristin Mulhall’s Imperialism (2004) and Kathy Ritvo’s Mucho Macho Man (2011) finished third. DeVaux might just be the one to rewrite the record book, if not this year, then in time. 

Japan renews Derby quest with a pair of hopefuls

A similar comment can be made about the likely triumph of a Japanese shipper, one day, as their dirt prowess continued to evolve. Champion Forever Young sets the standard after his near-miss third here in 2024, and the question mark is whether their current duo can go as close. 

Unbeaten Japan Road invitee Danon Bourbon has a world of raw talent, if not so much experience. At least the Kentucky-bred son of Maxfield is bred to love Churchill, and his collateral form is encouraging.  

Japanese-bred Wonder Dean has been tested on the world stage, punching his ticket via the UAE Derby (G2) on the Euro/Mideast Road, but the fast early/slow late dynamic leaves something to be desired. His trainer, Daisuke Takayanagi, has been here before with fifth-placer T O Password (2024), and Wonder Dean has a better profile. 

The trainer of UAE Derby runner-up Six Speed, Bhupat Seemar, is also here for the second time. Six Speed figures to be better than Summer Is Tomorrow, his trailer in 2022, but his front-running style doesn’t make it easy on him. 

Baffert again looks for record-breaking number seven

Hall of Famer Bob Baffert would rank as the all-time leading Derby trainer, if not for Medina Spirit’s disqualification. With his official tally standing at six winners, he’s currently tied with Ben Jones for that distinction.

Baffert has two chances, Potente and Litmus Test, but both of his hopefuls would need to improve to hand him a record-breaking seventh. That’s why the record chase has a low-key vibe, as if the expectation is to look forward to next year. Still, as a well-bred improver, Potente can’t be discounted with Juan Hernandez. Litmus Test’s putting the blinkers back on, picking up Martin Garcia, and landing post 4 all imply he’ll be sent early, but those tactics haven’t worked for him yet. 

Familiar team of O’Neill, Reddam back with Pavlovian

Trainer Doug O’Neill and Reddam Racing have teamed up with Derby winners I’ll Have Another (2012) and Nyquist (2016), and homebred Pavlovian will try to enhance their historical standing with a third blanket of roses. Like Pletcher and Mott, O’Neill would equal Fitzsimmons and Hirsch on the trainers’ list. J. Paul Reddam would rank alongside William Woodward’s Belair Stud in a joint-third among all-time Derby owners.

Calumet Farm remains the Derby’s winningest owner with eight victories, and the iconic nursery is responsible for breeding a record 10 winners. The modern incarnation of Calumet, under proprietor Brad Kelley, has Robusta as a last-minute addition to the field. A stablemate of Pavlovian from the O’Neill barn, Robusta drew in upon the scratch of Right to Party just before scratch time Friday morning.

Veterinarian scrutiny and scratches 

After a Keeneland meet characterized by a flurry of veterinary scratches, connections and fans alike wonder what role this scrutiny might play for the Derby.

So far, there haven’t been any bombshells. Silent Tactic was the most noteworthy withdrawal, declared on Wednesday, due to a bruised foot. Fulleffort’s ankle chip was revealed on Thursday, and Right to Party was scratched by the regulatory veterinarian on Friday.

Those defections allowed the first three also-eligibles to make it into the main body of the 20-horse field – Great White, the maiden Ocelli (who’s up against it trying to emulate Brokers Tip, who broke his maiden in the 1933 Derby), and Robusta, respectively. 

Hopefully, there will be no breaking news or unpleasant surprises on Saturday.