Longshots for Gulfstream’s mandatory-payout $834,368 Pick 6 carryover

March 3rd, 2024

A massive $834,368 Rainbow Pick 6 carryover is slated for mandatory dispersal on Sunday at Gulfstream Park. The final pool for the 20-cent wager is projected to exceed $6 million.

The Pick 6 sequence gets underway in Race 6 at 2:39 p.m. ET. Competitive fields are on the horizon, so we’ve analyzed the entries to identify a pair of midrange price horses worth including on your tickets:

Race 7: #1 On Command (5-1)

Trainer Rusty Arnold isn’t a frequent winner with first-time starters; his lifetime win rate with such runners stands at 7%. So it was noteworthy to see Arnold’s unraced filly #1 On Command (5-1) run strongly in her debut sprinting six furlongs against maiden special weight competition on Dec. 17 at Gulfstream, finishing second after tracking a quick pace over a good track.

Now On Command is returning to action in a seven-furlong maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies, where she figures to fire a strong shot. In recent years, Arnold has won at a 22% rate with second-time starters, so On Command figures to move forward on Sunday. The daughter of promising young sire Omaha Beach has trained sharply since her debut and is picking up Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, so all of these factors make On Command an enticing play as the fourth choice in an eight-horse field.

Race 11: #3 Mizoula (8-1)

This ultra-competitive 1 1/8-mile grass maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies has drawn an overflow field, and the favorites don’t appear unbeatable. #2 Braid (4-1) is a first-time starter from the barn of Todd Pletcher, whose 18% win rate with all first-time starters drops to 10% with runners debuting on turf. And while #6 Jessamine Hill (9-2) rallied nicely to finish second in her debut racing 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream, that effort came on Tapeta, and the daughter of Tapit isn’t guaranteed to shine while switching to turf.

That’s why we’re recommending #3 Mizoula (8-1) as a longshot worth including. She debuted in the same Tapeta contest as Jessamine Hill and finished a distant seventh, but the daughter of Zoustar is bred to thrive while switching to grass for trainer Christophe Clement, who wins at a solid 18% rate with second-time starters. Throw in the fact Mizoula will be guided by five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz (who is renowned for his prowess riding on grass), and Mizoula is eligible to outrun expectations on Sunday.

Good luck!